RealGM

Kyle is coming off an ankle sprain that was going to make him questionable to play at all had the first game of the Celtics series not been postponed. Even being optimistic, it's hard to see him being completely 100% heading into this series.

It's no big secret among Raptor fans that Norman Powell has had a breakout season, and his excellent play has continued in the bubble. While not the passer that Kyle is, he's the more efficient scorer (40% on threes vs. 35% for Kyle, 62.4% True Shooting, 59% for Kyle) and is probably the better defender as he isn't undersized like Kyle, potentially a huge factor against the Celtics (+2.0 Defensive Box +/- vs. +1.0 for Kyle).

Another interesting factor that I heard while listening to the Dunc'd On podcast is their assessment that Kyle basically can't finish at the rim anymore and teams are starting to figure this out. I think this is a big liability for the Raptors, the Celtics are a team that is well coached and smart enough to shut down Kyle by contesting his 3 point shot and forcing him to drive to the rim and finish.

Normally a huge change like this would only be made if the first game or two of the series does not go well, but in this case I believe that if the Raptors want to beat the Celtics they cannot allow themselves to get into a hole, they need to bring their best effort every game. This could be a 7 game series that goes down to the wire and punting game 1 because Kyle is a little hobbled could be the difference.

I like Norm coming off the bench, if Lowry is healthy the bench is the right role for Norm

I don't know what stats they have to support Kyle not finishing at rim, but when Kyle decides hes going to take it inside, he takes it inside. The eyeball test while watching pretty much all their games this season, Kyle and Fred push it when they feel they need a bucket. Clearly it doesn't always workout as they are both undersized, but Kyle is a bully and generally will go into the opponents bodies.

I cannot disagree that Norm is a revelation and his first step and explosiveness is probably the best on the team and his jump shooting has been nasty. But generally being the first off the bench coming in at about 3-4 min left in the first quarter provides that spark that continues what the starters have built.

I wouldn't touch it.

NO.

I can assure you Norm would immediately stink if he was put in that position. We have a good thing going with him coming off the bench, he's the perfect 6th or 7th guy off the bench to feast on opposing benches with no pressure.

I was going to say that with all that's gone on I haven't thought about the playing side of the NBA, but I think it's time to get back to basketball. It might be good to rest Lowry and start Powell at the SG position and play FVV at PG.

I mean, Norm is gonna get 30mpg at least.

And the celtics give us a great opportunity to go with our secret Small lineup:

C Siakam
F Anunoby
F Powell
G Fred
G Lowry

Norm and Serge can make such a huge impact coming off the bench, stay with what’s working.

He won't start this year, if Fred leaves he will.

He's fine in the 6-7 spot right now. Better to have him working against opposing benches than getting the majority of his minutes against starting units.

If Kyle is healthy no. If he isn't then yes. Powell starts after Lowry retires unless we acquire someone better like Beal or he asks for too much in UFA.

Starting doesn't really matter. I just want the minutes allocated so that Serge and Kyle are on the floor together for maximum minutes, and Marc and Norm the same.

Did you just say Norm is better than Kyle defensively?

There are no metrics that would support that view.

Kyle’s ability to read the play and disrupt what the other team is doing is invaluable. He also has no problem dealing with larger players that try to post him up.

Lowry is near all defence team level while Powell is, at best, slightly above average due to his enormous wingspan.

Norman is perfect coming off the bench, bringing that spark and scoring... for now, the starting lineup is the best we can put on the court, I like Norman but he definitely has a role in this team as Serge who is also coming off the bench... I don’t see any problem as long as we win the championship again.

Dino-Might wrote:Did you just say Norm is better than Kyle defensively?

There are no metrics that would support that view.

Kyle’s ability to read the play and disrupt what the other team is doing is invaluable. He also has no problem dealing with larger players that try to post him up.

Lowry is near all defence team level while Powell is, at best, slightly above average due to his enormous wingspan.

I pointed out that Norm's Defensive Box +/- is +2.0 while Kyle's is +1.0 so yes, there is some statistic that indicates Norm might be a better defender than Kyle. Their Defensive Ratings are exactly the same this season, by the way. Do you have data that supports your view that Kyle is a better defender than Norm?

To throw some additional data into the discussion, here's a quick look at lineup combinations for the season:

NBA Raptors lineup advanced statistics

.K. Lowry, .M. Gasol, .P. Siakam, .F. VanVleet, .O. Anunoby
110.9 Offensive Rating, 98.1 Defensive Rating, 12.9 Net Rating

This is the most heavily used linuep this season, 361 minutes total. 12.9 Net Rating is good, no much else to say here beyond that.

.K. Lowry, .S. Ibaka, .P. Siakam, .F. VanVleet, .O. Anunoby
102.0 Offensive Rating, 105.8 Defensive Rating, -3.8 Net Rating

The second most used lineup at 210 minutes, this is the same as the most used lineup but switching Gasol for Ibaka. The numbers here aren't pretty, both defence and offense are worse, this potentially reflects how important Marc Gasol's contributions to the team are.

.M. Gasol, .N. Powell, .P. Siakam, .F. VanVleet, .O. Anunoby
114.1 Offensive Rating, 97.3 Defensive Rating, 16.8 Net Rating

The third most used lineup this season at 201 minutes total, this is the same as the most used lineup but swapping Kyle Lowry for Norman Powell. Both offence and defense are slightly better, this is the best Net Rating of any heavily used lineup.

.K. Lowry, .S. Ibaka, .N. Powell, .P. Siakam, .O. Anunoby
114.0 Offensive Rating, 114.4 Defensive Rating, -0.4 Net Rating

The fifth most used lineup this season at 120 minutes (the 4th uses Patrick McCaw and has a horrible net rating, pointless to look at for obvious reasons). This lineup is similar to the second most used lineup, but replacing Fred with Norman. While still slightly negative, it's interesting to see how it improves a bit without the undersized two point guard lineup approach that Nick Nurse seems to favor.

.K. Lowry, .M. Gasol, .N. Powell, .P. Siakam, .O. Anunoby
115.9 Offensive Rating, 102.5 Defensive Rating, 13.4 Net Rating

The sixth most used lineup this season at 111 minutes and the last lineup that is at least 100 minutes or more, this is the same as the most used, but replacing Fred with Norman. Not quite as good as the Fred/Norm/OG/Pascal/Gasol lineup, but slightly better overall than the Kyle/Fred/OG/Pascal/Gasol lineup (worse defense but better offense).

To sum up, in the most used lineups swapping Norm for either Kyle or Fred seems to have at least a slightly positive impact. These aren't huge sample sizes, but it's another data point that potentially indicates that using both Kyle and Fred at the same time isn't the best idea.

It's not broken...

TravisScott55 wrote:It's not broken...

But if Kyle’s not 100% it may be broken, that’s the point. It’s important to recognize this now before we go down a game in a tough series because of it.

ciueli wrote:

Dino-Might wrote:Did you just say Norm is better than Kyle defensively?

There are no metrics that would support that view.

Kyle’s ability to read the play and disrupt what the other team is doing is invaluable. He also has no problem dealing with larger players that try to post him up.

Lowry is near all defence team level while Powell is, at best, slightly above average due to his enormous wingspan.

I pointed out that Norm's Defensive Box +/- is +2.0 while Kyle's is +1.0 so yes, there is some statistic that indicates Norm might be a better defender than Kyle. Their Defensive Ratings are exactly the same this season, by the way. Do you have data that supports your view that Kyle is a better defender than Norm?

Not sure where you are finding these stats. Can you send me a link?

On basketball reference:

DBPM: Lowry 1.0 to Powell's 0.8
DWS: Lowry 3.3 to Powell 2.3

on ESPN Real Plus Minus:

DRPM: Lowry 2.02 Powell 0.62

on FiveThirtyEight player rating

Def. +/- : Lowry +1.9 to Powell -0.1

JonasVFTW wrote:I don't know what stats they have to support Kyle not finishing at rim, but when Kyle decides hes going to take it inside, he takes it inside.

In the 4-game sweep against the Nets, Lowry shot 40.0% around the rim (those shots made up 26.3% of his FGA). Very minuscule sample size but it is something to keep an eye on.

Roco14 wrote:I can assure you Norm would immediately stink if he was put in that position. We have a good thing going with him coming off the bench, he's the perfect 6th or 7th guy off the bench to feast on opposing benches with no pressure.