fbalmeida wrote:Fred may in fact leave. Among potential cap-space suitors, I'm not sure how eager he'd be to play for Casey again, and I think the Heat may compromise their cap space for 2021 by signing him. This leaves the Suns as the most significant threat. Meanwhile, on a sign-and-trade he could end up virtually anywhere.
If he does leave, our future has a distinctly different and uncertain look to it.
1. Powell becomes a starter, but will likely remain a potential trade-piece because of his player option in 2021.
2. It creates an immediate and difficult need to fill at PG. Subtracting Fred's 17 M cap hold this year won't buy us a decent starting PG because there are none to be found in the UFA pool, frankly. The development pipeline is unlikely to produce another Fred within the next two years. And lastly, via trade, our starting PG will most likely end up being someone who is either too old, a defensive liability, or both.
3. We'll arrive at the 2021 Giannis sweepstakes with a good team that will most likely lack exactly what Fred, and looking at starting PG's around the league that are his age, only Fred could provide: a high-IQ elite 3+D point guard that is just about to to enter his physical peak at the same time as Giannis.
I can't see Masai letting him go.
So Lowry isn't playing next year?
I think 2020-21 is Lowry's last season as a Raptor.
After re-signing Fred this year, max-slotting Giannis, re-signing OG and TD2 on bird-rights, and having one good big or two decent bigs on the roster, I don't see room over the 125% cap threshold for a salary that Lowry could agree to in 2021. It would be amazing if he tagged on for a Giannis-run for scraps. But I don't see it happening.
136 M (109 M x 1.25 luxury cap threshold)
-32.7 M for Giannis
-31 for Siakam
-21 for Fred.
-12 to spend on 2 bigs and stock the bench
Leaves roughly 40 M to re-sign OG (20-is range), Davis (15-ish) , and possibly extend Watson, Brissett, Thomas, or all three.
Whatever is left could be for Lowry.
Short answer is no.