Johnny Bball wrote:Pooh_Jeter wrote:Johnny Bball wrote:
You are not getting a star player from 7-15 unless its kind of a fluke, but definitely it is not common at all. And the star player has been your entire sticking point, The entire idea of tanking it to get to the top of the lottery, but the lottery odds are so bad it will so much ore often than not take more than a year unless you get incredibly lucky.
It's kind of a fluke getting a star player in general as the Raptors can attest to with the Kawhi deal. Yes, higher picks are better, which is why I'm advocating for using EVERYTHING at a GMs disposal. Lottery picks, trading vets for picks/young players and weaponizing cap space for extra assets.
Just like having a top 3 pick makes it more likely you get a star than say the 15th pick, so does have a multitude of high upside young players and draft picks. It's about playing the probabilities and people who are banking on another Kawhi deal are playing the short stick in this scenario. Same goes for those who want to stay pat and hope and pray that a mid-late 20s pick turns into a Tony Parker/Manu, etc. etc.
There is nothing controversial about this take. If you don't have the stomach for a rebuild, cool, but don't try to tell me that it's just as or more likely the Raptors get a star banking on another Kawhi deal or some incredible Jokic pick.
First off, I've said for 6 months now that this year was a lost year where we don't compete. So don't try and tell me I don't have "the stomach" for a rebuild when you're late to the party. This is just the start.
2nd... i swear... people here change their argument by the day. You want a star player, so now it's not tanking we need.. it just incredible luck ...by just finishing out of the playoffs and drafting a star. You also seem to be mistaken that there is an incredible difference between the quality of players you get between 10 and 20 on average.
And you keep harping on Ujiri while saying one in a million (which is a complete **** fallacy), even though he managed to make a one in a million trade? Pick a lane. The reality is that stars are moving more and more every single year now. It's not the improbability you're pretending it is. The reality is... We aren't good enough to trade for a star right now. And when we get a star, we may have the same problems keeping him that other teams are facing if we suck, and it's why stars are moving.
It was a general statement, but thanks for your usual condescending attitude!
What? You're literally making up stuff I've said. Of course there is luck involved, there is no guarantee with anything. The higher in the draft you pick the better the available talent. Picking 1st means you get your choice of prospect, picking 30th means you don't have 30 prospects to choose from, I don't think that needs further explanation. If you want to make a definitive statement like there isn't a major difference in quality between picks 10 and 20 provide some actual evidence and not just your own opinion.
It's already been covered ad naseum that a player of Kawhi's calibre being available and for a discounted price is extremely rare. You really got me when you took "One in a million" as a literal statement. Even if it was, that doesn't preclude something from happening you know, once.
