jimmy keys wrote:Who knows Bates might be a bust. I heard Durant comparisons, but I don't think he's on that level. The next top 5 guy was probably drafted in 2018. The one after that might be in this class, but you're getting way ahead of yourself. Lebron, Duncan, Shaq & Olajuwon were all unanimous 1st overall picks. Durant & Jordan would've been most years too. Curry & Kawhi defied the odds to become top 5 level players. It's the draft you don't know what's going to happen. All we know is that this one is much better than the last two and maybe the best in a decade for lotto picks.
Guys worth tanking for
Guys we had no idea were generational superstars
There's no science to this. Team situation, scouting and player development is EVERYTHING.
I trust our system in taking one of those 5 gems and turning them into who they need to be.
But there is a science to this - probability science. There are many out there, for example, here's one
in which someone compared NBA Draft Pick # to probability of being an all star.
Based on NBA drafts since 1989, he found the 1st pick has the best chance to become an All-Star at some point of their career at 63% probability, followed by the #3 pick (57%) and #2 pick (40%). Generally, lottery picks had 26% chance, non-lottery (1st round) 7.8%, and 2nd round 2.5%. Chart copy below. It's not a perfect science as there are outliers but that's why it's called probability.
So if you believe Masai is a superior judge of talent to beat the odds, then it make even more sense to try and draft as high as possible to give him even better odds of finding that franchise star player.