Springing the Offense with "Small" Ball

[Wannabe MEP]

The Raptors currently have a top-10 defense, and not far from top 5 -- 1.5 points per 100 possessions. The offense, on the other hand, is not top 10, and 4.6 away from top 5. To be a threat, the Raptors have to become more dangerous on offense.

We already have some data that suggests the Raptors can do more on offense with the pieces already in place -- without sacrificing the defense -- by going "small": just add a little more quickness/shooting/ball-handling, while maintaining decent size/defense.

1) Baynes at the 5 with 3 guards

Starting frontcourt: OG-Siakam-Baynes -- OffRtg: 101.0, DefRtg: 110.7, NetRtg: -9.7 (142 minutes)

Lowry-FVV-Powell-Baynes -- OffRtg: 114.5, DefRtg: 105.0, NetRtg: +9.6 (57 minutes)
Lowry-FVV-TD-Baynes -- OffRtg: 122.9, DefRtg: 104.2, NetRtg: +18.8 (25 minutes)

2) Boucher at the 5

OG-Siakam-Boucher -- OffRtg: 112.2 DefRtg: 107.9, NetRtg: +4.4 (95 minutes)
OG-Boucher at the 4/5 -- OffRtg: 111.4 DefRtg: 101.0, NetRtg: +10.4 (137 minutes)

Mix of #1 and #2: Boucher at the 5 with 3 guards:
Lowry-FVV-Powell-Boucher -- OffRtg: 125.7, DefRtg: 98.6, NetRtg: +27.0 (34 minutes)

3) OG/Siakam at the 4/5

OffRtg: 120.7, DefRtg: 104.0, NetRtg: +16.7 (84 minutes)

[team edward]

Hard to draw too much from this given injuries, recent improvement in play by Baynes and generally, and Boucher’s inability to play against certain centres which means his stats don’t suffer much when Nurse pulls him out.

[Jef]

Well, since half of PSkill's problems are surely mental, I wouldn't be opposed to not starting him, but bringing him off the bench for Baynes 3-4 minutes in. It's worth the experiment, Nick.

[Brinbe]

i think fred/kyle/norm/og/pascal is the obvious answer and you sacrifice the rebounding/size issues for all the positives elsewhere with that closing grouping.

will they get away with that facing a kat, jokic or embiid? probably not. but against most teams, it should do the trick.

[ItsDanger]

The lineups listed in OP are not factoring in the other side of the equation, they're used vs other small lineups for the most part. The statistics must incorporate all normalized opposition.

[YogurtProducer]

Well, since half of PSkill's problems are surely mental, I wouldn't be opposed to not starting him, but bringing him off the bench for Baynes 3-4 minutes in. It's worth the experiment, Nick.

If his problem is mental and confidence, throwing him to the bench seems like a strange way to fix it

[Mikistan]

Hard to draw too much from this given injuries, recent improvement in play by Baynes and generally, and Boucher’s inability to play against certain centres which means his stats don’t suffer much when Nurse pulls him out.

not to mention small sample sizes, and having a cupcake schedule so far

[Wannabe MEP]

Hard to draw too much from this given injuries, recent improvement in play by Baynes and generally...

Four lineups that have played at least 20 minutes since January 10:

• Default starters, with Baynes at the 5, have been awful
• Baynes at the 5, with three guards: good
• Boucher at the 5: good

The recent improvement by Baynes has correlated with Anunoby's injury, and therefore more Powell/TD at the 3.

[Wannabe MEP]

Hard to draw too much from this given injuries, recent improvement in play by Baynes and generally, and Boucher’s inability to play against certain centres which means his stats don’t suffer much when Nurse pulls him out.

not to mention small sample sizes, and having a cupcake schedule so far

Sample size is definitely a concern, but in the NBA you have to make decisions based on a less-than-ideal set of data. I think this sample is reasonably clear:

OG-Siakam-Baynes -- OffRtg: 101.0, DefRtg: 110.7, NetRtg: -9.7 (142 minutes)

I think 142 minutes is enough to know that this combo is ineffective...that it's not going to all of a sudden morph into a crew that's hitting, say, 112 OffRtg next week. Especially when you have units involving each of these three players that have been effective. It's not that these three players are bad at basketball; it's that this particular combo doesn't provide enough spacing/explosiveness/creativity for efficient enough offense.

[ATLTimekeeper]

It's too early to tell anything, but last 15 games our offense has been 115.1, which is the 6th best over that span and would rank us 4th overall. The defense has slipped over that period to 111.3 (15th), and we'd be 18th over that stretch. You can also claw back further and go last 20 games, and we'd still be a better offensive team (112.5, 8th overall) than defensive team (110.1, 14th).

Anyway, it's worth running with Baynes a bit longer. He's trending in the right direction and has a track record of good defense.

[Wannabe MEP]

It's too early to tell anything, but last 15 games our offense has been 115.1, which is the 6th best over that span and would rank us 4th overall. The defense has slipped over that period to 111.3 (15th), and we'd be 18th over that stretch. You can also claw back further and go last 20 games, and we'd still be a better offensive team (112.5, 8th overall) than defensive team (110.1, 14th).

Anyway, it's worth running with Baynes a bit longer. He's trending in the right direction and has a track record of good defense.

Ok, that's interesting. But however/whenever you slice it, the default starters haven't worked. Even if you go with the last 15 games, they've been awful on offense:

Lowry-FVV-OG-Siakam-Baynes -- OffRtg: 96.1, DefRtg: 105.0, NetRtg: -8.9

But we've used this lineup less recently, at least in part because of injuries (OG out, so Powell/TD get more minutes at the 3). I'm not necessarily saying sit Baynes: I'm saying don't go back to the old starting lineup when OG comes back from injury. Could keep starting Powell at the 3, with Baynes in. OG is first big off the bench.

[Wannabe MEP]

There are 12 units that have played together at least 15 minutes this season. Only two have a negative net rating, and they both have this combo:

OG-Siakam-Baynes

[Wannabe MEP]

OG-Boucher at the 4/5 -- OffRtg: 111.4 DefRtg: 101.0, NetRtg: +10.4 (137 minutes)

I realized this set includes a fair number of minutes with other forwards, like Watanabe and Johnson. Stripping out other forwards:

3 guards + OG-Boucher -- OffRtg: 124.1 DefRtg: 100.0, NetRtg: +24.1 (65 minutes)

[Jef]

Well, since half of PSkill's problems are surely mental, I wouldn't be opposed to not starting him, but bringing him off the bench for Baynes 3-4 minutes in. It's worth the experiment, Nick.

If his problem is mental and confidence, throwing him to the bench seems like a strange way to fix it

Exactly. And Box+1 was a strange way to fix the Curry problem.
Just for 10 games. Can't hurt, this year.

[rocky_da_best]

Well, since half of PSkill's problems are surely mental, I wouldn't be opposed to not starting him, but bringing him off the bench for Baynes 3-4 minutes in. It's worth the experiment, Nick.

If his problem is mental and confidence, throwing him to the bench seems like a strange way to fix it

Exactly. And Box+1 was a strange way to fix the Curry problem.
Just for 10 games. Can't hurt, this year.

The optics of having a max player coming off the bench alone surely makes this nigh on impossible.

[YogurtProducer]

Well, since half of PSkill's problems are surely mental, I wouldn't be opposed to not starting him, but bringing him off the bench for Baynes 3-4 minutes in. It's worth the experiment, Nick.

If his problem is mental and confidence, throwing him to the bench seems like a strange way to fix it

Exactly. And Box+1 was a strange way to fix the Curry problem.
Just for 10 games. Can't hurt, this year.

Except those are 2 entirely different things

[Jef]

If his problem is mental and confidence, throwing him to the bench seems like a strange way to fix it

Exactly. And Box+1 was a strange way to fix the Curry problem.
Just for 10 games. Can't hurt, this year.

Except those are 2 entirely different things

Looks like the threat of this worked. My job is done.

[TheProfessor]

Siakam should be playing the 5 at every opportunity, been saying this for years. Unless he is going up against Jokic/Embiid/AD, he should be at the 5.

[Wannabe MEP]

What about this 3-4-5 rotation per half?

1. OG-Siakam-Boucher
2. guard-OG-Boucher
3. guard-Siakam-Baynes
4. guard-OG-Siakam

^ all combos that have been more effective than the current starters, without the drama of, e.g., bringing Siakam off the bench.