538's new trade machine

[Parataxis]

So FiveThirtyEight has just released a Trade Machine (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-trades-2021/) which lets you move players around from team to team (you can only choose two teams, but you can remove players, or type players from third and fourth teams in).

A very interesting thing happens when you move Kyle Lowry to other teams. Philly, Heat both increase their chances of winning a Chip by about 5x. This is even after removing Green, Thybulle, etc.. or Herro, Precious, etc...

Go figure...

[Badonkadonk]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

[Kingsway_fan]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

[NotMyKawhi]

Kyle really is that final piece that will take philly or the heat to the finals for sure imo Especially philly

Philly just needs to understand, championships are rare, Simmons, embiid and harris are all locked up long term, your picks don't mean anything.


Go for it. give us the farm for lowry

[douggood]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

[720]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

Except the situation of the teams getting the star. Philly would have a legit chance of winning it all this year with Lowry. Phoenix just brought in CP3 to appease Booker and also bring in a vet that's also a winner to establish a culture for a team mostly full of young stars.

I feel like that adds extra value to Lowry.

[SFour]

If a contender wants Lowry they'll have to look what trade packages CP3 and Holiday demanded....Lowry can put a team over the top and push them into the finals so it won't come cheap.

you could say "oh but Lowry is an expiring contract"...well if he went to the Sixers I'm confident Lowry would very likely re-sign with them....even with the Heat I think he would be very interested in re-signing to play with Butler more.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

yup. thats why people are delusional to ask for more in any trade.

some people are like the old men yelling at clouds: "its like give me the universe or i'll keep Lowry for myself, I swear I'll do it, don't make me do it" type of mentality nowadays.

Lowry at this point and time is definitely more valuable to this year's Raptors. but it would be a shame for him to leave because he wants to win another championship, it won't be in Toronto and he may just leave to sign the MLE with a contender.

there is always that risk if you leave it to free agency but a sign and trade can be a possible solution too right?

[Indeed]

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

yup. thats why people are delusional to ask for more in any trade.

some people are like the old men yelling at clouds: "its like give me the universe or i'll keep Lowry for myself, I swear I'll do it, don't make me do it" type of mentality nowadays.

Lowry at this point and time is definitely more valuable to this year's Raptors. but it would be a shame for him to leave because he wants to win another championship, it won't be in Toronto and he may just leave to sign the MLE with a contender.

there is always that risk if you leave it to free agency but a sign and trade can be a possible solution too right?

I think we can ask for another 2nd round pick of this year, but yes, that's pretty much it for trading Lowry if he agrees to it.

I think it is our situation that we are unlikely to compete for this year and next year, so many holes in our lineup, and trading Lowry for him to get another championship makes more sense. I think we need to regroup this summer and get ride of our expiring for someone who is actually useful.

[bboyskinnylegs]

Kyle can probably turn the 76ers/Clippers into a legitimate contender. I don't think there's other teams where he could have that same level of impact. I guess there's some young teams that would be somewhat more relevant in the playoffs with him, though still not realistically capable of winning a title.

[Johnny Bball]

Kyle's a difference maker. If teams want him, they'll have to step up.

I'm so thankful during times like this that Masai and Bobby make the decisions.

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

Since Lowry's salary would be decreasing in any new deal (probably 2 years, and they can use his bird rights) and Paul's is increasing to a level that is gross, I think that isn't a negative.


Btw... wish they really would have built this in a way that salaries are visible and three 4 teams could be added, so you could have used just one site.

[Johnny Bball]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

[Ackshun]

Thanks for sharing.

Surprisingly, adding Rubio doesn't change our odds of winning it all. Lol.


DRUMMOND adds 3% though. Hmmm

Simply adding Blake Griffin to our currrent squad decreased our odds of winning

[Def Leppard]

Tradenba still the best one

Sent from my SM-G981W using RealGM mobile app

[DelAbbot]

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

Except the situation of the teams getting the star. Philly would have a legit chance of winning it all this year with Lowry. Phoenix just brought in CP3 to appease Booker and also bring in a vet that's also a winner to establish a culture for a team mostly full of young stars.

I feel like that adds extra value to Lowry.

This is a good point. CP3 didn't push someone's championship odds by multiples like Lowry does for Phillies and Clippers now.

Moves at the trade deadline cost more because teams are more ready to push over the hump by overpaying.

[bluerap23]

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

Since Lowry's salary would be decreasing in any new deal (probably 2 years, and they can use his bird rights) and Paul's is increasing to a level that is gross, I think that isn't a negative.


Btw... wish they really would have built this in a way that salaries are visible and three 4 teams could be added, so you could have used just one site.

What is a championship worth? CP3 has definitely proved his value to a fringe playoff team. He takes you from 8-10 to a first round exit.

Kyle has the potential to take you from a second round exit to the Larry OB.

There are also teams a tier below contention that would be interested. Put Kyle on any of these teams and they look very interesting:

Philly
Miami
LA
LA
Denver
Golden State
Milwaukee
Boston
Portland
Dallas

We could put together quite the bidding war if we wanted to.

[lobosloboslobos]

If a contender wants Lowry they'll have to look what trade packages CP3 and Holiday demanded....Lowry can put a team over the top and push them into the finals so it won't come cheap.

you could say "oh but Lowry is an expiring contract"...well if he went to the Sixers I'm confident Lowry would very likely re-sign with them....even with the Heat I think he would be very interested in re-signing to play with Butler more.

Much as I love Kyle I would love to see him and Jimmy Buckets on the same team. They're both getting old but with a starting lineup of Lowry, Butler, Bam, Herro and Robinson as starters plus a solid bench that is a serious contender and probably the best team in the east.

[Ackshun]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

[Badonkadonk]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

I asked the same thing, it makes no sense. Thybulle is their only prospect that has decent value imo.

[Johnny Bball]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

Yeah he's hardly the center piece in my thinking. it was to balance salaries, take a flyer. I like Thybulle and the picks.