Draft Thread Part 2

[Mark_83]

If Masai and co believe in Jalen Johnson’s character, I’d love to pick him depending on where our pick falls. A lot will rest on whether he truly gives up on his teams or if there are other reasons why he has this history of leaving teams. Skill wise I think he would be a great fit.

Johnson switched to three different highschools and quit on Duke. Something is up with this guy when Coach K says the following:

As soon as Jalen Johnson chucked a pass some 10 feet off target late in the Bellarmine game, Mike Krzyzewski said to his staff what looked to be a harsh four-word description for the frustrating uber-athlete, including one particularly harsh four-letter word. It doesn’t take a lip-reading expert to decipher from the telecast what the 41st-year Duke chief appeared to note to his crew:

“He’s so [expletive] soft.”

https://balldurham.com/2020/12/08/duke-basketball-mind-games-jalen-johnson/4/

Which is a shame, because on talent he's right up there with the big 5.

[Reeko]

As someone who loves elite defenders, it is very reassuring that at least one of Mitchell, Moody and Barnes will likely be available with our pick and they all look like great fits in our system.

I'd add Keon as his defense and effort on that end is elite. I think if anything we'll be drafting someone who is a plus defender.

I saw Keon's scouting videos after I wrote that post and was going to edit the post to add him.

This lottery seems to have a lot of players who have low bust potential. Not sure how many will actually end up being in the top tier star level players but I don't see too many being out of the league any time soon. I think that is rare in the NBA draft where a lot of lottery picks are raw athletic projects.

Defense is often what keeps prospects from making it in the NBA but the number of players in this draft who already look like they will be pretty decent NBA defenders from day 1 while still having some ball handling, shooting and athleticism to contribute on offense is surprisingly high.

Yeah, I can't recall a draft where so many prospects are considered good to elite defenders. Almost every video that I see on one this year's prospects has them as being a great defender to being potentially very good. I'm not sure if it's just a thing with this class, or if this is now really being drilled into young players' heads at the grassroots level, as the 3 and D player becomes more and more valuable in the NBA.

[Raptorfan2012]

If Masai and co believe in Jalen Johnson’s character, I’d love to pick him depending on where our pick falls. A lot will rest on whether he truly gives up on his teams or if there are other reasons why he has this history of leaving teams. Skill wise I think he would be a great fit.

Raptors don't have a good track record with quitters though - Vince, Hedo, and Pascal as of late.

What makes you want to call Pascal a quitter? I know he may not make great decisions but I don't see any reason why you would call him a quitter. The guy plays his heart out every game and outplayed Kawhi last night in what is in all likelihood a meaningless game.

Pascal has not been the same since his big contract kicked in. There is no more hunger to improve his game - he is pretty much the same player he was in 2019 (if anything, he has regressed). I really do not believe he has lived up to his contract extension thus far.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Just a follow up but both Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga's WS/48 was pitiful, albeit one whole level up. Kuminga has a negative WS/48. Teams are going to have to rely on the eye test with those two.

High WS/48 doesn't mean much. Loads of players have them and stink or end up role players in the NBA, but low WS/48 seems like slim odds at breaking out. LaVine, DeMar, Jrue, Brown all have that high character gym rat part about them. Keon Johnson has that, too.

[Indeed]

Random question but would you guys trade Malachi for the same exact pick in this draft? You lose the development time, which is bad, but is there a guy projected to go at that spot or near it right now that you'd rather have?

Do you think Flynn will be better than Butler, Durate, Christopher, Cookper, Ayayi, Mann, Dosunmu, Cam Thomas? They are projecting to be bottom 1st.

Some of these prospects are in the high to mid 2nd, would you pick Flynn over them?
BJ Boston, Trey Murphy III, Terrence Shannon Jr, Daishen Nix, Johnny Juzang, Nah'Shon (Bones) Hyland, Scottie Lewis, Max Abmas, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride.

I think maybe mid-2nd round on this deep draft?
Also depends if teams are taking a Forward/C over the Guards above, which may further shift down the rank.

[Indeed]

I went through the Ringer's top 25 players and added a bunch of other stars that didn't make the cut and filtered them through WS/48 in their draft year. There's only 5 that had a WS/48 lower than Jayson Tatum's .168.

SGA .167
DeMar .144
Jrue Holiday .138
Jaylen Brown .117
Zach LaVine .111

I bring this up because Cade and Barnes are both in the .160s, Keon Johnson is around .124. So they're the low end of guys you can hope to break out into stars in the NBA (just filtered through this one metric). Everyone else is higher and 3/4s of stars are >.190.

Just food for thought. The NCAA lotto prospects that are >.190 are Mobley, Kispert, Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, Wagner, Suggs and Moses Moody.

Sometimes a raw talent may not contribute that much in terms of minutes and WS, but I guess for older prospects, this would make sense.

[Jerry Lucas]

Posted this in the tWo thread, figured it belongs here too.

Watch on YouTube

6'5, 20 y/o PG who could translate as a combo guard. He is both one of the best shot creators and passers/creators in this class, with no main weaknesses other than his consistency at the rim.

Mostly mocked in the mid to late 1st, possible steal of the draft even if a lottery team reaches for him.

[Psubs]

Raptors don't have a good track record with quitters though - Vince, Hedo, and Pascal as of late.

What makes you want to call Pascal a quitter? I know he may not make great decisions but I don't see any reason why you would call him a quitter. The guy plays his heart out every game and outplayed Kawhi last night in what is in all likelihood a meaningless game.

Pascal has not been the same since his big contract kicked in. There is no more hunger to improve his game - he is pretty much the same player he was in 2019 (if anything, he has regressed). I really do not believe he has lived up to his contract extension thus far.

Covid effed him up physically and mentally over last year. Only in the last 2 games has he finally looked smooth and back to preCovid Pascal.

[Psubs]

Random question but would you guys trade Malachi for the same exact pick in this draft? You lose the development time, which is bad, but is there a guy projected to go at that spot or near it right now that you'd rather have?

Do you think Flynn will be better than Butler, Durate, Christopher, Cookper, Ayayi, Mann, Dosunmu, Cam Thomas? They are projecting to be bottom 1st.

Some of these prospects are in the high to mid 2nd, would you pick Flynn over them?
BJ Boston, Trey Murphy III, Terrence Shannon Jr, Daishen Nix, Johnny Juzang, Nah'Shon (Bones) Hyland, Scottie Lewis, Max Abmas, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride.

I think maybe mid-2nd round on this deep draft?
Also depends if teams are taking a Forward/C over the Guards above, which may further shift down the rank.

I thin 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Not really 2, so 1 in the hand is worth 1 in the bush.

Already have two 2nd's in the 40's so trade them to get maybe a late 1st for a heavy tax team?

Flynn has already shown that he can get an A/T of over 3 in the NBA and can start and win games. At least an average defender and can run a team. In a 2020 re-draft he'd be middle of the 1st.

Let's just say that I don't think the 2021 draft late 1st, early 2nd prospects are significantly better than this year's crop.

Jaden McDaniels
Tyrell Terry
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey
Theo Maledon

Though I think there might be more possible homerun lottery tickets in the 2021 draft like:

Petrusev
Roko Prkacin
Daishen Nix
Isaiah Todd
BJ Boston
Johnny Juzang
Neemias Queta

I'd prefer to keep Flynn, let the scouting do the scouting and do this exercise with the two 2nd rounders as they were able to get Jalen Harris at #59.

[Blood Orange]

So many interesting players in the second round we can consider.

Johnny Juzang SG
Scottie Lewis, SG
Joel Ayayi, SG

Kessler Edwards, SF
Isaiah Livers, SF
Herbert Jones, SF
Marcus Bagley, SF

Isaiah Todd, PF
Charles Bassey, PF
Filip Petrusev, PF
RaiQuan Gray, PF

Ariel Hukporti, C
Neemias Queta, C

Queta, Todd, then Petrusev and Hukporti. I don't think Scottie Lewis will be better than Jalen Harris, so pass.

If we walk away with one or two of those, I would say that the Raps won the draft. I would also personally add Roko to that list cause I think he's got great upside as well.

[Indeed]

Random question but would you guys trade Malachi for the same exact pick in this draft? You lose the development time, which is bad, but is there a guy projected to go at that spot or near it right now that you'd rather have?

Do you think Flynn will be better than Butler, Durate, Christopher, Cookper, Ayayi, Mann, Dosunmu, Cam Thomas? They are projecting to be bottom 1st.

Some of these prospects are in the high to mid 2nd, would you pick Flynn over them?
BJ Boston, Trey Murphy III, Terrence Shannon Jr, Daishen Nix, Johnny Juzang, Nah'Shon (Bones) Hyland, Scottie Lewis, Max Abmas, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride.

I think maybe mid-2nd round on this deep draft?
Also depends if teams are taking a Forward/C over the Guards above, which may further shift down the rank.

I thin 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Not really 2, so 1 in the hand is worth 1 in the bush.

Already have two 2nd's in the 40's so trade them to get maybe a late 1st for a heavy tax team?

Flynn has already shown that he can get an A/T of over 3 in the NBA and can start and win games. At least an average defender and can run a team. In a 2020 re-draft he'd be middle of the 1st.

Let's just say that I don't think the 2021 draft late 1st, early 2nd prospects are significantly better than this year's crop.

Jaden McDaniels
Tyrell Terry
Xavier Tillman
Paul Reed
Vernon Carey
Theo Maledon

Though I think there might be more possible homerun lottery tickets in the 2021 draft like:

Petrusev
Roko Prkacin
Daishen Nix
Isaiah Todd
BJ Boston
Johnny Juzang
Neemias Queta

I'd prefer to keep Flynn, let the scouting do the scouting and do this exercise with the two 2nd rounders as they were able to get Jalen Harris at #59.

I don't see he will get minutes if we draft Davion Mitchell.
And I don't find the A/T accurate in terms of impact. His only impact to me is his steals on the defensive end.

[Raptorfan2012]

Posted this in the tWo thread, figured it belongs here too.

Watch on YouTube

6'5, 20 y/o PG who could translate as a combo guard. He is both one of the best shot creators and passers/creators in this class, with no main weaknesses other than his consistency at the rim.

Mostly mocked in the mid to late 1st, possible steal of the draft even if a lottery team reaches for him.

I enjoyed watching his high school mixtapes as well. Entertaining player. Have to appreciate him staying back a year to work on his game, and it paid dividends. Outside of the top 5, I would be fine if the Raptors picked up Tre (I don't consider him a reach).

[Mark_83]

Random question but would you guys trade Malachi for the same exact pick in this draft? You lose the development time, which is bad, but is there a guy projected to go at that spot or near it right now that you'd rather have?

Do you think Flynn will be better than Butler, Durate, Christopher, Cookper, Ayayi, Mann, Dosunmu, Cam Thomas? They are projecting to be bottom 1st.

Some of these prospects are in the high to mid 2nd, would you pick Flynn over them?
BJ Boston, Trey Murphy III, Terrence Shannon Jr, Daishen Nix, Johnny Juzang, Nah'Shon (Bones) Hyland, Scottie Lewis, Max Abmas, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride.

I think maybe mid-2nd round on this deep draft?
Also depends if teams are taking a Forward/C over the Guards above, which may further shift down the rank.

I'm not sure. I was just curious. There's always the allure of the mystery box. There are definitely a few I like over Flynn, then again I really wanted Flynn last draft so it could be shiny new toy syndrome.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I went through the Ringer's top 25 players and added a bunch of other stars that didn't make the cut and filtered them through WS/48 in their draft year. There's only 5 that had a WS/48 lower than Jayson Tatum's .168.

SGA .167
DeMar .144
Jrue Holiday .138
Jaylen Brown .117
Zach LaVine .111

I bring this up because Cade and Barnes are both in the .160s, Keon Johnson is around .124. So they're the low end of guys you can hope to break out into stars in the NBA (just filtered through this one metric). Everyone else is higher and 3/4s of stars are >.190.

Just food for thought. The NCAA lotto prospects that are >.190 are Mobley, Kispert, Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, Wagner, Suggs and Moses Moody.

Sometimes a raw talent may not contribute that much in terms of minutes and WS, but I guess for older prospects, this would make sense.

It's WS per 48 minutes. I ended up looking at around 50 players and 9 ended up being in that top 50 with a WS/48 under .180.

All the perpetual MVP candidates were well over .200. Some even in the .300s. So, it's unlikely that that raw athlete becomes anything more than a flawed star a la Jaylen Brown or Zach LaVine. And, even someone like Cade likely doesn't grade out as an MVP candidate. Mobley and Suggs have a better shot, and we just won't know about Green and Kuminga because they played pro.

[Dalek]

Raptors don't have a good track record with quitters though - Vince, Hedo, and Pascal as of late.

What makes you want to call Pascal a quitter? I know he may not make great decisions but I don't see any reason why you would call him a quitter. The guy plays his heart out every game and outplayed Kawhi last night in what is in all likelihood a meaningless game.

Pascal has not been the same since his big contract kicked in. There is no more hunger to improve his game - he is pretty much the same player he was in 2019 (if anything, he has regressed). I really do not believe he has lived up to his contract extension thus far.

That is fair to say that he hasn't lived up to expectations, but I wouldn't say that he has mentally checked out or is not putting the effort out. VC straight up quit (no more dunking statement) and Hedo sucked and ate Pizza Pizza. Siakam has had his dominant stretches when he has been healthy and he has also been terribly inefficient for a number of stretches as well.

Not to single you out, but I think a lot of people are quick to give up on a player that is being forced into a primary scoring option role that really was not what he built his reputation on. He has regressed because he is in a position to fail. They want him to be Kawhi when he is more like a Kris Middleton type.

[Dalek]

Posted this in the tWo thread, figured it belongs here too.

Watch on YouTube

6'5, 20 y/o PG who could translate as a combo guard. He is both one of the best shot creators and passers/creators in this class, with no main weaknesses other than his consistency at the rim.

Mostly mocked in the mid to late 1st, possible steal of the draft even if a lottery team reaches for him.

I enjoyed watching his high school mixtapes as well. Entertaining player. Have to appreciate him staying back a year to work on his game, and it paid dividends. Outside of the top 5, I would be fine if the Raptors picked up Tre (I don't consider him a reach).

I think Tre Mann might be an upgrade on Bouknight based on his overall efficiency, passing and impact on winning, but his lower FTr and at the rim finishing make me hesitate. Bouknight is clearly a better athlete but he doesn't pass and is actually pretty inaccurate when he does. It is a tough call, but I think Bouknight would be ahead of Mann just because he has plus athleticism.

[Jerry Lucas]

Posted this in the tWo thread, figured it belongs here too.

Watch on YouTube

6'5, 20 y/o PG who could translate as a combo guard. He is both one of the best shot creators and passers/creators in this class, with no main weaknesses other than his consistency at the rim.

Mostly mocked in the mid to late 1st, possible steal of the draft even if a lottery team reaches for him.

I enjoyed watching his high school mixtapes as well. Entertaining player. Have to appreciate him staying back a year to work on his game, and it paid dividends. Outside of the top 5, I would be fine if the Raptors picked up Tre (I don't consider him a reach).

I think Tre Mann might be an upgrade on Bouknight based on his overall efficiency, passing and impact on winning, but his lower FTr and at the rim finishing make me hesitate. Bouknight is clearly a better athlete but he doesn't pass and is actually pretty inaccurate when he does. It is a tough call, but I think Bouknight would be ahead of Mann just because he has plus athleticism.

I really like Bouknight as well, he's in my top 10.

Tre, Bouknight, Davion, Jared Butler and Cam Thomas would all be solid choices in the range where our pick likely ends up.

[StringerBell]

If Masai and co believe in Jalen Johnson’s character, I’d love to pick him depending on where our pick falls. A lot will rest on whether he truly gives up on his teams or if there are other reasons why he has this history of leaving teams. Skill wise I think he would be a great fit.

Johnson switched to three different highschools and quit on Duke. Something is up with this guy when Coach K says the following:

As soon as Jalen Johnson chucked a pass some 10 feet off target late in the Bellarmine game, Mike Krzyzewski said to his staff what looked to be a harsh four-word description for the frustrating uber-athlete, including one particularly harsh four-letter word. It doesn’t take a lip-reading expert to decipher from the telecast what the 41st-year Duke chief appeared to note to his crew:

“He’s so [expletive] soft.”

https://balldurham.com/2020/12/08/duke-basketball-mind-games-jalen-johnson/4/

Ooof. No athlete wants to hear that from their coach. Yikes.

[Spates]

Outside of their name and number I don't think Davion and Donovan should really be getting compared that much

Do you have any thoughts on Davion? I can't help but think of him as a smaller Marcus Smart, and at his size maybe Pat Bev.

I'm not sure why Jared Butler isn't considered the better prospect out of the Baylor backcourt.

Elite quickness / first step with strong frame.

He needs advance ball handling, and will need to improve his vision and passing (dishing and kickout), but the quickness plus size may allow him to go where he wants if his shooting is real.

Does he project as a lead guard? Sounds like he leans towards being a project that may be immediately serviceable as a secondary creator playing off an elite creator. I see the appeal.

I'm just fascinated with Butler. His shooting ability unlocks so much to compensate for his lack of burst and size. He doesn't look like he's reliant on athleticism to get buckets, all I'm seeing is skill and craft. Movement and stationary shooting, off-dribble shooting, strong pnr game, he makes great reads. Butler is multifaceted and offers great versatility. And unless his athleticism doesn't project as NBA level I can't see him failing. I might be so very wrong about him but he just looks like a stud.

[mdenny]

Watch on YouTube

More of his shooting stoke. Thing of beauty

Is it just me or does his release point look a little late? Like he's releasing the ball on the way down instead of at the peak of the jump?