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TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine

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ac1011990
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#21 » by ac1011990 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:58 pm

DelAbbot wrote:
PhilBlackson wrote:I don't even wanna joke about Coin Toss 2.0...

Wish this team would learn from past mistakes so we stop drafting 8-9 on our down years and get closer to that 4-6th. Always seems to be a player a notch above that goes in that range....ie/ Dame instead of Ross, Steph instead of Derozan, Murray instead of Poeltl. The margin can be that thin and for what?! Sandbagging some meaningless moral Ws actual Ls....

Let's not do this again...let's take advantage of just one weird, wonky Tampa Bay Tank.


Don't ignore the feelings of those fan who just want to win some games with our injury-riddled team! Feelings! Play-in!

Who cares about feelings, Masai is there to do what’s good for the teams future. Winning meaningless games at this point has zero value. Raps aren’t scaring any legit playoff team, let alone the Nets. We won’t push them to 5 games, it’s going to be a beating of epic portions. Nets will absolutely slaughter the Raptors and it won’t do any good for the so called winning culture. Play the young guys, let them develop, retool for next season and come back stronger with a potential lotto pick. This team needs high end talent, badly. Keep drafting in the low positions and this miserable season is going to continue for years.
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#22 » by kj_ » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:10 pm

Why do the thunder have suck high odds for a top 5 (67%)?


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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#23 » by Badonkadonk » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:13 pm

kj_ wrote:Why do the thunder have suck high odds for a top 5 (67%)?


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The simulations factor in their schedule, which is tougher than average, and injuries, which have hit them super hard.

Shai is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis, and that's something they can milk to the end of the year. They traded George Hill and waived his replacement (Rivers). They traded Diallo to the Pistons, he was playing really well as part of the rotation. They have two guys on concussion protocol. They're giving tons of minutes to Pokusevski, who's looked great offensively but is really young and getting torched.

Perfect tank conditions basically.
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#24 » by And1Skip » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:15 pm

kj_ wrote:Why do the thunder have suck high odds for a top 5 (67%)?


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Oh i didnt realize until now that the Ringer article takes into account remaining schedule and also pick-trades (eg., Warriors have a higher chance because they could get the Wolves pick if its out of Top3)
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#25 » by KL78192020 » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:18 pm

Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically


That win was really costly. Really need to lose these head to head games against the wiz and cavs.
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#26 » by kj_ » Thu Apr 8, 2021 7:32 pm

Badonkadonk wrote:
kj_ wrote:Why do the thunder have suck high odds for a top 5 (67%)?


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The simulations factor in their schedule, which is tougher than average, and injuries, which have hit them super hard.

Shai is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis, and that's something they can milk to the end of the year. They traded George Hill and waived his replacement (Rivers). They traded Diallo to the Pistons, he was playing really well as part of the rotation. They have two guys on concussion protocol. They're giving tons of minutes to Pokusevski, who's looked great offensively but is really young and getting torched.

Perfect tank conditions basically.

But they only have an 8% chance at number 1. Those seem out of whack. Are they owed a pick that could also be top 5. I get why the warriors have a high chance at a top 5 because of the wolves pick owed but it’s top 3 protected so the warriors don’t have a high chance at #1.

Are the thunder owed a top 3 protected that is likely to be 4 or 5?


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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#27 » by Badonkadonk » Thu Apr 8, 2021 8:16 pm

kj_ wrote:
Badonkadonk wrote:
kj_ wrote:Why do the thunder have suck high odds for a top 5 (67%)?


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The simulations factor in their schedule, which is tougher than average, and injuries, which have hit them super hard.

Shai is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis, and that's something they can milk to the end of the year. They traded George Hill and waived his replacement (Rivers). They traded Diallo to the Pistons, he was playing really well as part of the rotation. They have two guys on concussion protocol. They're giving tons of minutes to Pokusevski, who's looked great offensively but is really young and getting torched.

Perfect tank conditions basically.

But they only have an 8% chance at number 1. Those seem out of whack. Are they owed a pick that could also be top 5. I get why the warriors have a high chance at a top 5 because of the wolves pick owed but it’s top 3 protected so the warriors don’t have a high chance at #1.

Are the thunder owed a top 3 protected that is likely to be 4 or 5?

The short answer is yes, the Thunder are owed picks that increase their chances of a top pick. Remember, Presti has amassed an insane amount of futures. One of the nice ones in play this year is a pick-swap with Houston, top 4 protected.

So while there only chance at #1 is their own (hence the 8%), they do have a better chance at top 5.

More info here:

https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com/lists/breaking-down-the-oklahoma-city-thunders-future-draft-picks/
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#28 » by kj_ » Thu Apr 8, 2021 10:57 pm

Badonkadonk wrote:
kj_ wrote:
Badonkadonk wrote:The simulations factor in their schedule, which is tougher than average, and injuries, which have hit them super hard.

Shai is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis, and that's something they can milk to the end of the year. They traded George Hill and waived his replacement (Rivers). They traded Diallo to the Pistons, he was playing really well as part of the rotation. They have two guys on concussion protocol. They're giving tons of minutes to Pokusevski, who's looked great offensively but is really young and getting torched.

Perfect tank conditions basically.

But they only have an 8% chance at number 1. Those seem out of whack. Are they owed a pick that could also be top 5. I get why the warriors have a high chance at a top 5 because of the wolves pick owed but it’s top 3 protected so the warriors don’t have a high chance at #1.

Are the thunder owed a top 3 protected that is likely to be 4 or 5?

The short answer is yes, the Thunder are owed picks that increase their chances of a top pick. Remember, Presti has amassed an insane amount of futures. One of the nice ones in play this year is a pick-swap with Houston, top 4 protected.

So while there only chance at #1 is their own (hence the 8%), they do have a better chance at top 5.

More info here:

https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com/lists/breaking-down-the-oklahoma-city-thunders-future-draft-picks/

That pick swap with Houston would be the reason.


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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#29 » by mdenny » Fri Apr 9, 2021 1:23 am

As long as we stay in 8th.....we have a 15% chance of getting either Cade or Mobley. So roughly the same chance of a Baynes 3 going in.

Lol this is what I've become.
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Re: TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine 

Post#30 » by Reverend X » Fri Apr 9, 2021 1:32 am

mdenny wrote:As long as we stay in 8th.....we have a 15% chance of getting either Cade or Mobley. So roughly the same chance of a Baynes 3 going in.

Lol this is what I've become.

And the same chance as me losing my virginity

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