Starting center next year? Options are limited...

[Wannabe MEP]

Option 1: Birch as starting center and re-sign Lowry

FVV
Lowry
OG
Siakam
Birch

Bench: Boucher, Flynn, Trent, Watanabe, draft pick, MLE?

Pros:

• Starting lineup has already been successful (+23.1 in 92 minutes)
• Keeps GROAT in Toronto with a reasonable chance to compete
• Solid core rotation is already in place; draft pick and other signings can be high risk/high reward
• Hope for higher ceiling with Birch's continued development

Cons:

• Concerns about offense against elite playoff defenses
• Too mediocre with an aging Lowry?
• Depends on the continued success of a unit with a small sample size

Option 2: Target big-name center (e.g., Turner, Collins) with 3-team Lowry sign-and-trade (plus pick?)

FVV
Trent
OG
Siakam
Turner/Collins/???

Bench: Boucher, Birch, Flynn, Watanabe, MLE?

Pros:

• Frontcourt rotation extremely solid with the right guy + Boucher-Birch coming off the bench
• Younger with high potential
• The success of FVV-Trent-OG-Siakam-Boucher suggests success for the lineup with another proven shooter at the 5

Cons:

• Probably won't happen: another team has to agree to give up an elite young big
• I'm assuming the cost would be high: something like Lowry and 1st round pick?
• Lots of money tied up in an unproven starting unit

Option 3: Target under-the-radar center (e.g., Portis, Muscala) with cap space

FVV
Trent
OG
Siakam
Portis/Muscala/???

Bench: Boucher, Birch, Flynn, Watanabe, draft pick, MLE?

Pros:

• Affordable and not dependent on other teams agreeing
• The success of FVV-Trent-OG-Siakam-Boucher suggests success for the lineup with another proven shooter at the 5
• More financial flexibility for other/future moves
• Solid bench bigs in Boucher-Birch

Cons:

• Certainly question marks with how Portis/Muscala will fit and perform in an expanded role
• Mediocre?
• Ideal is defense, shooting, and rim-running at the 5: very difficult to get everything, especially for a low price

[Indeed]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

[kj_]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

It was interesting that OG guarded Jokic when he was on the floor with Birch. I wonder if we see this the rest of the year as a test whether or not the Raps could go smallish (Birch isn’t super small) and survive with OG doing the heavy lifting vs the bigger 5’s.


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[Indeed]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

It was interesting that OG guarded Jokic when he was on the floor with Birch. I wonder if we see this the rest of the year as a test whether or not the Raps could go smallish (Birch isn’t super small) and survive with OG doing the heavy lifting vs the bigger 5’s.


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I think we switched back to Birch when Jokic went to the post (may have to watch again to see if that happens).
I am not sure, but suspect OG is the zone like at the top, while Birch and Siakam may rotate to help when Jokic is posted up. OG would be the perimeter defender against stretch big and PnR to switch against the handler.

Meanwhile, OG was gassed all the time, particularly on offense, not sure this is something we want.

[kj_]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

It was interesting that OG guarded Jokic when he was on the floor with Birch. I wonder if we see this the rest of the year as a test whether or not the Raps could go smallish (Birch isn’t super small) and survive with OG doing the heavy lifting vs the bigger 5’s.


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I think we switched back to Birch when Jokic went to the post (may have to watch again to see if that happens).
I am not sure, but suspect OG is the zone like at the top, while Birch and Siakam may rotate to help when Jokic is posted up. OG would be the perimeter defender against stretch big and PnR to switch against the handler.

Meanwhile, OG was gassed all the time, particularly on offense, not sure this is something we want.

I recall quick double on the catch in the post when OG was guarding Jokic. I’m just going off memory so it may not be certain... that said,

I’d be fine with testing the theory this year. It’s an experimental year. Need to gather evidence on what can and can’t work. That will better inform FA and trade options in the off season.


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[ItsDanger]

Guess the following players based on per 36 stats:

Player A: 63.4 FG%, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.4 BPG, 16.8 PPG

Player B: 61.6 FG%, 9.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 BPG, 13.8 PPG

Spoiler:

Player A: Alex Len with Washington

Player B: Khem Birch with Toronto

[Wannabe MEP]

Guess the following players based on per 36 stats:

Player A: 63.4 FG%, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.4 BPG, 16.8 PPG, -3.6 NetRtg

Player B: 61.6 FG%, 9.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 BPG, 13.8 PPG, +10.8 NetRtg

Spoiler:

Player A: Alex Len with Washington

Player B: Khem Birch with Toronto

Net rating comparison for "centers" in April

[WaltFrazier]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

It was interesting that OG guarded Jokic when he was on the floor with Birch. I wonder if we see this the rest of the year as a test whether or not the Raps could go smallish (Birch isn’t super small) and survive with OG doing the heavy lifting vs the bigger 5’s.

No I think that's a special situation because Jokic is such a tricky finesse player, so OG matched pretty well as he showed in the first Nugget game. Against more traditional big bangers I think Birch guards that guy. See if Birch guard Gobert tonight, I assume so.

OG is wasted guarding guys like Gobert, he is an elite defender on any perimeter player.

[kj_]

Just watched Dieng (Spurs vs Heat), and I feel he is small and slow. Never see anyone throwing him the ball, so I am not sure about his hands. But I feel he could be Baynes 2.0, so no go.

I think we still need a backup C behind Birch for big matchup

It was interesting that OG guarded Jokic when he was on the floor with Birch. I wonder if we see this the rest of the year as a test whether or not the Raps could go smallish (Birch isn’t super small) and survive with OG doing the heavy lifting vs the bigger 5’s.

No I think that's a special situation because Jokic is such a tricky finesse player, so OG matched pretty well as he showed in the first Nugget game. Against more traditional big bangers I think Birch guards that guy. See if Birch guard Gobert tonight, I assume so.

I also think it was a case of DEN not having a wing they needed OG to slow.

OG on Mitchel tonight?


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[Wannabe MEP]

• Boucher . . . +3.8 (1453 minutes)
• Birch . . . . . +1.6 (471 minutes)
• Baynes . . . . -5.1 (912 minutes)
• Len . . . . . . -13.0 (76 minutes)

• Siakam-Boucher . . . +12.3 (688 minutes)
• Siakam-Birch . . . . . -1.3 (325 minutes)
• Siakam-Baynes . . . . -3.1 (559 minutes)
• Siakam-Len . . . . . . -20.3 (45 minutes)

• OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +11.6 (274 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +9.0 (178 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (229 minutes)

• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +18.7 (143 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +13.0 (122 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (203 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Len . . . . . . -16.0 (34 minutes)

[Par36]

Guess the following players based on per 36 stats:

Player A: 63.4 FG%, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.4 BPG, 16.8 PPG, -3.6 NetRtg

Player B: 61.6 FG%, 9.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 BPG, 13.8 PPG, +10.8 NetRtg

Spoiler:

Player A: Alex Len with Washington

Player B: Khem Birch with Toronto

Net rating comparison for "centers" in April

This.

[Jstock12]

Guess the following players based on per 36 stats:

Player A: 63.4 FG%, 9.7 RPG, 1.9 APG, 2.4 BPG, 16.8 PPG, -3.6 NetRtg

Player B: 61.6 FG%, 9.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 BPG, 13.8 PPG, +10.8 NetRtg

Spoiler:

Player A: Alex Len with Washington

Player B: Khem Birch with Toronto

Net rating comparison for "centers" in April

Thanks for this link! Pretty cool seeing JV having a +7.9 NetRtg and Oshae Brissett being +11.2.

P.S. Quite shocking that Doncic is only +1.9

[Indeed]

• Boucher . . . +3.8 (1453 minutes)
• Birch . . . . . +1.6 (471 minutes)
• Baynes . . . . -5.1 (912 minutes)
• Len . . . . . . -13.0 (76 minutes)

• Siakam-Boucher . . . +12.3 (688 minutes)
• Siakam-Birch . . . . . -1.3 (325 minutes)
• Siakam-Baynes . . . . -3.1 (559 minutes)
• Siakam-Len . . . . . . -20.3 (45 minutes)

• OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +11.6 (274 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +9.0 (178 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (229 minutes)

• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +18.7 (143 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +13.0 (122 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (203 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Len . . . . . . -16.0 (34 minutes)

People aren't even wiling to pay Boucher on the other thread. Want him to be traded

[DelAbbot]

• Boucher . . . +3.8 (1453 minutes)
• Birch . . . . . +1.6 (471 minutes)
• Baynes . . . . -5.1 (912 minutes)
• Len . . . . . . -13.0 (76 minutes)

• Siakam-Boucher . . . +12.3 (688 minutes)
• Siakam-Birch . . . . . -1.3 (325 minutes)
• Siakam-Baynes . . . . -3.1 (559 minutes)
• Siakam-Len . . . . . . -20.3 (45 minutes)

• OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +11.6 (274 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +9.0 (178 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (229 minutes)

• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +18.7 (143 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +13.0 (122 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (203 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Len . . . . . . -16.0 (34 minutes)

People aren't even wiling to pay Boucher on the other thread. Want him to be traded

How about adding some context to the mins Boucher played? Nurse has been selectively playing Boucher (based on matchups) when the opposing team has no bruising centre like Embiid or Jokic on the floor. It's like using your left-handed reliever against LH batters only - the platoon splits makes the final numbers look better than he really is.

If you put Boucher in at centre against all types of opposing centre, his on-off numbers will crater.

[Wannabe MEP]

• Boucher . . . +3.8 (1453 minutes)
• Birch . . . . . +1.6 (471 minutes)
• Baynes . . . . -5.1 (912 minutes)
• Len . . . . . . -13.0 (76 minutes)

• Siakam-Boucher . . . +12.3 (688 minutes)
• Siakam-Birch . . . . . -1.3 (325 minutes)
• Siakam-Baynes . . . . -3.1 (559 minutes)
• Siakam-Len . . . . . . -20.3 (45 minutes)

• OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +11.6 (274 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +9.0 (178 minutes)
• OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (229 minutes)

• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Boucher . . . +18.7 (143 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Birch . . . . . +13.0 (122 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Baynes . . . . -9.0 (203 minutes)
• FVV-_____-OG-Siakam-Len . . . . . . -16.0 (34 minutes)

People aren't even wiling to pay Boucher on the other thread. Want him to be traded

How about adding some context to the mins Boucher played? Nurse has been selectively playing Boucher (based on matchups) when the opposing team has no bruising centre like Embiid or Jokic on the floor. It's like using your left-handed reliever against LH batters only - the platoon splits makes the final numbers look better than he really is.

Except that Boucher had far more minutes at center than anyone else on the team. Sure, they tweaked personnel based on matchups, but that goes more than one direction: whenever Boucher/Baynes was unsuccessful (or successful), they pulled him (left him in). Boucher was far more successful far more often.

Boucher had to play a ton of minutes when OG/Siakam/FVV were out with COVID/injuries as well, so some of these numbers are dragged down by horrible hacked units featuring barely-NBA players.

My main point is still primarily about shooting: I think Siakam should be paired with a 5 who can shoot. I think Birch has been pretty good, but as the sample size has increased, it seems clear to me that Boucher is still ultimately the best pairing with Siakam. If you could magically morph Boucher and Birch into one player, that'd be great. Or target someone who approximates that magical player. Or Birch really drills his shooting in the offseason. Or Boucher puts on 20 pounds of muscle . Or...

These are four very different centers, with different strengths and weaknesses. The Raptors had by far the most success with one of them in particular...despite his significant flaws. I believe that's an important lesson for what the Raptors need at the 5.

[Ell Curry]

I haven't seen enough to have an eye test opinion but Muscala's impact on the Thunder seems to have been really significant this year:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=thunder+record+this+season+with+and+without+mike+muscala%2C+net+rating

He might make sense as our stretch center to give Siakam space if we can get him for 2-3M on an exception if we keep Lowry and Birch and want 10-15 minutes a night of stretch 5 play.

To @Los Soles summary I would add that if we sign and trade Lowry for a 10-12M guy like Pat Bev or George Hill (in order to get a 1st) and we agree with a deal on Trent and trust him to be in UFA status (saves like 3M i think from his 4.7M cap hold) we'd have like 15M or so and might be able to get an offer sheet signed with a guy like Markannen by giving the Bulls a small sweetener not to match. Maybe Mitchell Robinson could be gotten for that price too if the Knicks plain prefer Noel.

[ItsDanger]

Can Birch handle larger C's? So far, I would say no. Maybe we should still look for a starting C.

[OAKLEY_2]

Maybe they offer sheet injury prone Zac Collins. Then they backfill with Birch-Gillespie when Collins is shelved. Boucher is being groomed to back up Paskal and OG. No Centre position for Boucher while Nurse is here.

[Indeed]

Can Birch handle larger C's? So far, I would say no. Maybe we should still look for a starting C.

Or a rotation between a bigger C and Birch.
I wonder if we want a traditional C, or another agile C. If we are thinking about going deep into the playoffs (eg. against Embiid, Lopez, etc.), I wonder if we can get away with an agile C. They will be less offensive, so I think we need to get more offense this summer.

[Steelo Green]

People are using small sample sizes and not taking into account level of completion to make grandiose claims.