Ramed Nazored wrote:PrinceAli wrote:Ramed Nazored wrote:Truth is, we’re not landing a lottery pick. We have virtually zero chance at landing Cunningham. None. I suggest people remove the Oklahoma logos as their avatars. They’re going to be upset in a few months.
I hope you realize a lottery pick is the top 14. Doesn’t mean we have to win the lotto to have a lottery pick. We’re likely to have a top 10 pick
Yeah, I always just conflate top 5 with "lottery". I know it's a misnomer. That being said, as far as I see it, we have zero shot at the Cunningham/Suggs pipedream. Mock drafts have us landing outside the top 8.
Mock drafts have no clue as to where we're ending up. That's not their function to prognosticate draft order, and even if they tried to crunch numbers to figure out the end order, it still wouldn't account for resting or "injured" players. Even now, Raps are 8th from the bottom with a 26.2% chance to move into the top four. That's not a pipe dream. It's probably better than the odds were of Raps getting Giannis this summer.
But the situation is even better than that. Raps are tied for 5th most losses. We can reasonably contemplate moving up since the Wizards don't seem to mind winning now that Beal is back, and Cavs will have Jarrett Allen back from concussion protocol. We just have to hold off the Bulls and the Kings.
I think 7th is very doable, which gives the Raps a 31.9% chance of a top 4 pick. Even 6th (behind only Minny, Detroit, OKC, Rockets, Magic) is possible, which gives a 37.2% chance at the top 4.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds