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Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective

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Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#1 » by vanhill » Sat May 1, 2021 8:14 am

Trying to acquire new players for the Raps from statistical perspect.

Weaknesses by team stats ranking (Rank 15+ across the NBA)

Def rebound Rank 28 (32.2 reb)
FG% Rank 25 (45%)
Off rebound Rank 24 (9.2 reb)
2P FG% Rank 22 (51.4%)
Points Rank 18 (111.7pts)
Assists Rank 17 (24.4)

The team addressed the issue by adding Birch and Gillespe
In April, 15 games (8wins, 7 losses)
Def rebound Rank 28 (33.9, +1.7 reb)
FG% Rank 25 (46.4%, +1.4% )
Off rebound Rank 24 (9.3 ,+0.1 reb)
2P FG% Rank 22 (53.4%, +2%)
Points Rank 18 (111.1pts, -0.6)
Assists Rank 17 (23.5, -1.2)

With addition of the 2 new big men , both team rebounds and FG% have slightly improved.
Notes:
1. Gillespie average 10.2 rebounds and shoots 57% in Gleague(27.8mins), if he plays more minutes, he should be able to help the team in both defensive and offensive ends.
2. Birch Shoots 61% and grabbed 7.2 rebound in his 10 games with raptors, good addition and want to see him play alongside with Gillespie,
3. FVV plays 36minutes and shoots 38.9% on the floor (FGA 16.2), he has been dealing with injuries this season and it might be the reason to explain his shooting slump.
4. Flynn (38%) and Gary trent Jr(41%) has not been shooting well either.
5. Siakam shoots 45% and grabbed 7.1 rebound per game. 29% behind the arc.
6. OG and Boucher are the bright spots for the raps, the both with ~50% FG% and shoots ~40% behind the arc.

2021-2022 FA/DRAFT Ideas:

Target
i. Guards who shoots better , Preferably shoots over 45% and ~ 40% behind the arc.
ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.

1. NBA Draft
Depends on which pick we are going to get , these players fit into these categories
First Round, with limited big man with good upside available, i think the Raps should draft a guard or wing player.
Mock draft #3
Jalen Suggs
6-4, 205 Point Guard (FG 50%, 3P 33%)
Mock draft #4
Jalen Green
6-6, 180 Shooting Guard(FG 46%, 3P 37%)
Mock draft #6
Scottie Barnes
6-9, 225 Small Forward/Power Forward(FG 50%, 3P 28%)
Mock draft #9
Davion Mitchell
6-2, 205 Point Guard(FG 51%, 3P 45%)
Mock draft #10
Corey Kispert
6-7, 220 Shooting Guard/Small Forward(FG 52%, 3P 44%)

Second round:
He is a defensive specialist and could also address our issues. He is ranked 29 on nba draft.net, we definitely should grab him if he falls.
Charles Bassey
6-11, 235 Power Forward/Center(FG 59%, 17.6pts, 11.6 rebound, 3.1 block)


2. Off-season Free agency ($22.5 million in cap room)
https://www.raptorshq.com/2021/3/26/22351607/nba-trade-deadline-2021-toronto-raptors-salary-cap-sheet-update-future-options
UFA:
Tier 1
1. Enes Kanter C, 6-10, 250lb(FG 60%, 11.4pts, 11.8 rebound,0.7block)
2. Willy Hernangomez PF/C, 6-11, 250lb (Per 36mins, FG 56%, 14.9pts, 14 rebound, 1.1block)
3. Richaun Holmes PF/C 6-10, 235lb (FG 64%, 14.3pts, 8.7 rebound,1.6block)
Tier 2
1. Cameron Payne PG 6-1, 183lb (Per 36mins FG 47%, 3P 40%, 15.6pts, 7.4asts)
2. Harry Giles PF/C, 6-11, 240lb (Per 36mins, FG 41%, 10.2pts, 13.6 rebound,1.1block)
RFA"
1. Jarret Allen C PF/C, 6-11 (FG 64%, 13.3pts, 9.9 rebound,1.5block)
2. Malik Monk SG, 6-3, 200lb(FG 46%, 3P 42%, 13.1pts)

Player Options:
Bobby Portis PF/C, 6-10, 250lb(Per 36mins, FG 53%, 19.4pts, 12 rebound,0.6block)

G-League FA

Omer Yurtseven C, 7-0, 264lb (FG 62%, 15.2pts, 9.3 rebound, 1.4block)

Again, these recommendations were primarily based on statistical point of view. Let me know your thoughts on these suggestions.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#2 » by PrinceAli » Sat May 1, 2021 10:06 am

I don’t think Kanter could ever play for us cause of his political situation
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#3 » by mtcan » Sat May 1, 2021 12:19 pm

PrinceAli wrote:I don’t think Kanter could ever play for us cause of his political situation

I think Kanter could cross the border these days with Biden as president.

He would definitely have been detained and deported if it were the Trump administration running things.

I don't think Biden is as chummy with Erdogan as Trump and Michael Flynn were.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#4 » by Yallbecrazy » Sat May 1, 2021 12:26 pm

mtcan wrote:
PrinceAli wrote:I don’t think Kanter could ever play for us cause of his political situation

I think Kanter could cross the border these days with Biden as president.

He would definitely have been detained and deported if it were the Trump administration running things.

I don't think Biden is as chummy with Erdogan as Trump and Michael Flynn were.


I don't think Kanter could ever play for us because of his defense situation.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#5 » by mtcan » Sat May 1, 2021 12:31 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:
mtcan wrote:
PrinceAli wrote:I don’t think Kanter could ever play for us cause of his political situation

I think Kanter could cross the border these days with Biden as president.

He would definitely have been detained and deported if it were the Trump administration running things.

I don't think Biden is as chummy with Erdogan as Trump and Michael Flynn were.


I don't think Kanter could ever play for us because of his defense situation.

Valid point. Nothing political about that.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#6 » by kj_ » Sat May 1, 2021 1:50 pm

“ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.”

I’m curious... why would we target someone who shoots less 3’s.


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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#7 » by forrestek » Sat May 1, 2021 1:54 pm

Interesting stats, thx!

Clearly the Raps are an undersized team with short guards and Birch starting at C.

For the draft, I'm always for best player available. Having said that, if that is not clear, Raps really need "effective" wings players with length. Specifically, 6-6" to 6-9" players that can play the 2 & 3 roles. Currently we have OG and Gary TJ that are good - that's it!

I like in the draft: Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes and Moses Moody. Also, Keon Johnson is shorter 6-5" but a bull dog.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#8 » by Rodrickle » Sat May 1, 2021 2:28 pm

kj_ wrote:“ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.”

I’m curious... why would we target someone who shoots less 3’s.


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I agree, that doesn't make sense. Hitting threes at good clips is ideal not only for efficient scoring, but also spacing, mainly for space for Siakam. I think the OP is using fg% overall instead of TS%

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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#9 » by Psubs » Sat May 1, 2021 2:28 pm

forrestek wrote:Interesting stats, thx!

Clearly the Raps are an undersized team with short guards and Birch starting at C.

For the draft, I'm always for best player available. Having said that, if that is not clear, Raps really need "effective" wings players with length. Specifically, 6-6" to 6-9" players that can play the 2 & 3 roles. Currently we have OG and Gary TJ that are good - that's it!

I like in the draft: Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes and Moses Moody. Also, Keon Johnson is shorter 6-5" but a bull dog.


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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#10 » by vanhill » Sat May 1, 2021 2:47 pm

kj_ wrote:“ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.”

I’m curious... why would we target someone who shoots less 3’s.


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The raps are:
# 4 in 3 point attempt, 39.8 per game,
# 11 in 3 Point average 37.2%
# 18 in points scored 111.7 pts per game

The top 2 highest scoring team are
Bucks 3PA 37.1, 3P% 39.2%, 119.3pts per game
Nets 3PA 36.3, 3P% 38.8%, 118.8pts per game.

I feel like we need to add quality shooters and the big man should focus on scoring in the paint and take higher percentage shot.
that will improve the over FG % and score more efficiently
If the new Bigs are fantastic shooters, we would definitely need him to shoot some 3s.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#11 » by HiJiNX » Sat May 1, 2021 3:06 pm

I see the Raps issues in this way:

-need the ability to score in the midrange. Is there anyone on this team you trust to make mid range jumpers consistently...even when wide open??
-big man that can guard the pnr, rebound, catch and finish (Birch has shown signs of this)
-shot creation off the bench
-Siakam and FVV to develop an in-between game and hopefully one day become consistent from deep
-more size at the 2/3 spot...lack of size hurts our 3 pt defence badly as well as our rebounding and loose ball recovery
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#12 » by MessiahUjiri » Sat May 1, 2021 3:10 pm

Excellent post.

I think we need to go hard after Richaun Holmes. He can grab boards (8.7 rpg), and is a great midrange shooter (60% within 16 feet). He’s also a mobile defensive body, and we’ve seen how mobile bigs can make a big difference with this team.

Would Holmes sign for the full MLE? (ie 9.5M). A backup plan might be Theis or Drummond, whoever agrees to sign for that amount.



IMO we also need one more playmaker/shooter wing off the bench, to be our super sub. Looking at this years FA, the most gettable good one seems like Fournier. Offer him like 12-14M out of our ~18M cap space.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#13 » by planetmars » Sat May 1, 2021 3:20 pm

MessiahUjiri wrote:Excellent post.

I think we need to go hard after Richaun Holmes. He can grab boards (8.7 rpg), and is a great midrange shooter (60% within 16 feet). He’s also a mobile defensive body, and we’ve seen how mobile bigs can make a big difference with this team.

Would Holmes sign for the full MLE? (ie 9.5M).



IMO we also need one more playmaker/shooter wing off the bench, to be our super sub. Looking at this years FA, the most gettable good one seems like Fournier. Offer him like 12-14M out of our ~18M cap space.


If a team uses cap space to bring in a player, they cannot get the full mid-level. They will get the room-mid level, which is about $4.7M.

Sacramento also has their full mid-level, and Holmes would probably prefer to stay then leave if offered the same amount from a different team.. so I think it would take cap space to get him and not an exception.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#14 » by ItsDanger » Sat May 1, 2021 3:37 pm

You need a shot creator in the half court. All other considerations are secondary.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#15 » by vanhill » Sat May 1, 2021 3:54 pm

ItsDanger wrote:You need a shot creator in the half court. All other considerations are secondary.


Malik monk is an excellent scorer , he could be someone we can chase after in the off season.
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#16 » by kj_ » Sat May 1, 2021 4:02 pm

vanhill wrote:
kj_ wrote:“ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.”

I’m curious... why would we target someone who shoots less 3’s.


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The raps are:
# 4 in 3 point attempt, 39.8 per game,
# 11 in 3 Point average 37.2%
# 18 in points scored 111.7 pts per game

The top 2 highest scoring team are
Bucks 3PA 37.1, 3P% 39.2%, 119.3pts per game
Nets 3PA 36.3, 3P% 38.8%, 118.8pts per game.

I feel like we need to add quality shooters and the big man should focus on scoring in the paint and take higher percentage shot.
that will improve the over FG % and score more efficiently
If the new Bigs are fantastic shooters, we would definitely need him to shoot some 3s.

Having a big that can shoot the 3 can positively impact all those numbers. The lane is more open for penetration for the wings and guards ... especially for Fred. He can’t score at the rim when the rim protector is there with Baynes, a non-finisher sitting in the dunker spot. Pull the big away and Fred will finish better. If the help comes, then the kick out to shooters happens. If a non-shooter is out there, teams leave him open and rotate to the shooting threats lowering their quality attempts and therefor their percentage and overall points.

Scoring in the paint is vital in this NBA, it just doesn’t need to be from a big.

Birch is a non-shooter that has worked okay because he makes quick reads when he gets the ball in the paint on PnR’s and gets the ball to shooters. He can also finish inside compared to Baynes. However, the offence has a pretty low ceiling with him on the floor because the paint is clogged. The team recognizes this and I’m sure he is working diligently on adding a respectable 3. He’s already being encouraged to take them and has made a few.

To succeed in today’s NBA, you have to have bigs that can shoot. Unless of course you have Durant, Kyrie and Harden with another guy shooting north of 48% from 3 on the floor at the same time. Then I could be their starting C and they’d still win more than they lose.

Drafting or signing a big that can rim, protect, rebound, make quick reads on offence and shoot from distance isn’t really possible as those are the elite guys at their position. So you need to draft or develop this player. The question is, do you start with a traditional big and teach him to shoot, or draft an athletic shooter and teach him to defend, rebound and make the right reads.

In my opinion, shooting from the 5 lifts the entire offence.


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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#17 » by Psubs » Sat May 1, 2021 4:30 pm

kj_ wrote:
vanhill wrote:
kj_ wrote:“ii. PF / C who can rebound, score in the paint, block shots and shoot less 3s.”

I’m curious... why would we target someone who shoots less 3’s.


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The raps are:
# 4 in 3 point attempt, 39.8 per game,
# 11 in 3 Point average 37.2%
# 18 in points scored 111.7 pts per game

The top 2 highest scoring team are
Bucks 3PA 37.1, 3P% 39.2%, 119.3pts per game
Nets 3PA 36.3, 3P% 38.8%, 118.8pts per game.

I feel like we need to add quality shooters and the big man should focus on scoring in the paint and take higher percentage shot.
that will improve the over FG % and score more efficiently
If the new Bigs are fantastic shooters, we would definitely need him to shoot some 3s.

Having a big that can shoot the 3 can positively impact all those numbers. The lane is more open for penetration for the wings and guards ... especially for Fred. He can’t score at the rim when the rim protector is there with Baynes, a non-finisher sitting in the dunker spot. Pull the big away and Fred will finish better. If the help comes, then the kick out to shooters happens. If a non-shooter is out there, teams leave him open and rotate to the shooting threats lowering their quality attempts and therefor their percentage and overall points.

Scoring in the paint is vital in this NBA, it just doesn’t need to be from a big.

Birch is a non-shooter that has worked okay because he makes quick reads when he gets the ball in the paint on PnR’s and gets the ball to shooters. He can also finish inside compared to Baynes. However, the offence has a pretty low ceiling with him on the floor because the paint is clogged. The team recognizes this and I’m sure he is working diligently on adding a respectable 3. He’s already being encouraged to take them and has made a few.

To succeed in today’s NBA, you have to have bigs that can shoot. Unless of course you have Durant, Kyrie and Harden with another guy shooting north of 48% from 3 on the floor at the same time. Then I could be their starting C and they’d still win more than they lose.

Drafting or signing a big that can rim, protect, rebound, make quick reads on offence and shoot from distance isn’t really possible as those are the elite guys at their position. So you need to draft or develop this player. The question is, do you start with a traditional big and teach him to shoot, or draft an athletic shooter and teach him to defend, rebound and make the right reads.

In my opinion, shooting from the 5 lifts the entire offence.


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Evan Mobley can develop a 3 like Anthony Davis. :nod: If he just keeps getting stronger like KG instead of builking up like JV, he'll be insane.

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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#18 » by kj_ » Sat May 1, 2021 5:31 pm

Psubs wrote:
kj_ wrote:
vanhill wrote:
The raps are:
# 4 in 3 point attempt, 39.8 per game,
# 11 in 3 Point average 37.2%
# 18 in points scored 111.7 pts per game

The top 2 highest scoring team are
Bucks 3PA 37.1, 3P% 39.2%, 119.3pts per game
Nets 3PA 36.3, 3P% 38.8%, 118.8pts per game.

I feel like we need to add quality shooters and the big man should focus on scoring in the paint and take higher percentage shot.
that will improve the over FG % and score more efficiently
If the new Bigs are fantastic shooters, we would definitely need him to shoot some 3s.

Having a big that can shoot the 3 can positively impact all those numbers. The lane is more open for penetration for the wings and guards ... especially for Fred. He can’t score at the rim when the rim protector is there with Baynes, a non-finisher sitting in the dunker spot. Pull the big away and Fred will finish better. If the help comes, then the kick out to shooters happens. If a non-shooter is out there, teams leave him open and rotate to the shooting threats lowering their quality attempts and therefor their percentage and overall points.

Scoring in the paint is vital in this NBA, it just doesn’t need to be from a big.

Birch is a non-shooter that has worked okay because he makes quick reads when he gets the ball in the paint on PnR’s and gets the ball to shooters. He can also finish inside compared to Baynes. However, the offence has a pretty low ceiling with him on the floor because the paint is clogged. The team recognizes this and I’m sure he is working diligently on adding a respectable 3. He’s already being encouraged to take them and has made a few.

To succeed in today’s NBA, you have to have bigs that can shoot. Unless of course you have Durant, Kyrie and Harden with another guy shooting north of 48% from 3 on the floor at the same time. Then I could be their starting C and they’d still win more than they lose.

Drafting or signing a big that can rim, protect, rebound, make quick reads on offence and shoot from distance isn’t really possible as those are the elite guys at their position. So you need to draft or develop this player. The question is, do you start with a traditional big and teach him to shoot, or draft an athletic shooter and teach him to defend, rebound and make the right reads.

In my opinion, shooting from the 5 lifts the entire offence.


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Evan Mobley can develop a 3 like Anthony Davis. :nod: If he just keeps getting stronger like KG instead of builking up like JV, he'll be insane.


Absolutely. What I meant by you can’t draft one of these types of C’s is to do so, you need to totally suck which is really hard to do. Or get lucky with the lottery balls

Mobley is the perfect scenario for the raps at the 5.


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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#19 » by Kingsway_fan » Sat May 1, 2021 5:59 pm

Holmes is the FA I would go after to fill our starting c role...
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Re: Raptors Off-season's recommendation - From statistical perspective 

Post#20 » by mdenny » Sat May 1, 2021 6:17 pm

This is really good analysis but there's a problem. It assumes that drafted players immediately start contributing.

Especially for picks outside the top 5....you're usually looking at meaningful contributions 2 to 3 seasons away. At which time a team's needs are usually different.

I think you just take the the best player available regardless of need.

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