ImageImageImageImageImage

Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory

Moderators: 7 Footer, Morris_Shatford, DG88, Reeko, lebron stopper, niQ, Alfred, gojoorange

User avatar
pingpongrac
Head Coach
Posts: 6,639
And1: 8,171
Joined: Mar 18, 2015
   

Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#1 » by pingpongrac » Fri May 7, 2021 7:14 am

In spite of playing every game on the road (tonight was another game where we heard jeers and boos late in the game when our own players were at the FT line or had possession of the ball) and dealing with numerous injuries/absences/resting games, we grade out to be a .500 or better team when looking at almost every key stat. We have the 7th best FG% defence, we force the most turnovers while we're 9th in ball protection on offence, we're 3rd in 3FGM (though 26th in OPP 3FGM), etc. The only areas where we've really struggled is on the boards (27th in REB%, though we've been much better since the addition of Gillespie and Birch) and keeping our opponents off the FT line (30th in OPP FTr, 28th in OPP FTA). Overall, we have the 15th best point differential (14th most efficient offence and 14th most efficient defence) and our expected W/L record is 35-32, yet we're 27-40. Of the 15 teams that have a worse point differential than us, 9 have a better record and 5-6 of those teams (Miami, Charlotte, Washington, Indiana, Golden State and San Antonio/New Orleans) will likely be play-in/playoff teams.

We're 6-15 in 5-point games (and 3-5 in games decided by one possession) and we've had the lead with less than 1:00 remaining in more than half of those losses. We've also been missing multiple key players (mostly OG and Lowry) in nearly half of those games. Still, that is almost a complete reversal of our 14-5 record in 5-point games last season. So what is the reasoning? Is it because our "home" games are away games? Has the loss of Ibaka+Gasol really affected us that much? Are we relying too much on a few players late in games/are we a bad Q4 team?

It's not #1. We actually fared better in close games on the road last season (8-1 in 5-point games, though 2 wins came as the away team in the bubble) while we were pretty good at winning close games at home (6-4). We've just been bad in close games regardless of location this season (2-7 on the road and 4-8 at home).

It's not really #2 either. Boucher stepped into the Ibaka role at almost an identical level (very similar box score stats/per36 stats while Boucher was more efficient and had a greater impact on the team's performance when he was on the floor) while the drop-off from Gasol to Baynes was larger than anyone could have imagined. One player doesn't account for a 10-win swing, though, especially considering Gasol played less than 6 MPG in the 4th quarter last season while Baynes played 4 MPG in the 4th in a total of 29 games and has been stapled to the bench for nearly 20 games now.

#3 seems like the obvious answer, but some research muddies things more than you'd expect. We actually have the 5th best point differential in Q4 behind the likes of the Lakers, Sixers, Nets and Jazz. A lot of our key players have individually performed at a similar level late in games compared to last season too. Siakam's Q4 USG% has decreased substantially (29% to 24.5%) and his efficiency has dipped a bit (56.5% to 55%), but his NetRTG has been even better (+9 to +11.). OG has increased his Q4 USG% (12.5% to 18%) and efficiency (56% to 65%) while his NetRTG has also improved slightly (+4.5 to +6). Boucher's USG% is identical while he has improved his efficiency (62% to 68%) and NetRTG (+2.5 to +7.5). FVV's USG% is similar while his efficiency has cratered (58% to 48.5%) and his NetRTG has improved (+5 to +9.5). Lowry's USG% is similar while his efficiency has dropped (58.5% to 55%) and his NetRTG has fallen off a cliff (+7 to -4.5). Overall, these 5 key players -- who average ~8 Q4 MPG when healthy -- haven't been any worse late in games than last season. What I did notice is that many of our bench players have been big negatives in Q4. Gillespie (-15.5 NetRTG), Hood (-9 NetRTG) and Flynn (-8 NetRTG) especially have been playing pretty big minutes lately (~5 Q4 MPG) and it's leading directly to losses (New York, Utah and Denver games come to mind).

It really just feels like this team/management had to recalibrate after we were decimated by COVID then decided to go the full-on tank/development route after the trade deadline because they realized that the deck was stacked against them too much to overcome. Since the trade deadline, we've been missing Lowry (14 games), FVV (10), Trent (8) and OG (6) for pretty significant time and most of it has been rest/maintenance for minor injuries which has resulted in a 9-14 record. In classic 2020/21 Raptors fashion, our win percentage (T-23rd at 39%) doesn't reflect our point differential (16th at +0.8) since the trade deadline. As FVV said, this really is the best worst team of all time. :lol:
Image
User avatar
Steelo Green
RealGM
Posts: 13,768
And1: 23,211
Joined: Feb 06, 2013

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#2 » by Steelo Green » Fri May 7, 2021 7:41 am

Are we much better? The key factor to 50 win seasons and our 7 years other than Kawhi has been Kyle. He has taken a step back this year and we are a below 0.500 team.

Every team has dealt with injuries and COVID to some degree.

At best we are probably a 0.500 team without all the injuries and sitting. That’s not a team to be excited about unless we strike big in the lottery.
User avatar
Johnny Bball
RealGM
Posts: 31,492
And1: 31,566
Joined: Feb 01, 2015
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#3 » by Johnny Bball » Fri May 7, 2021 8:09 am

You would have to be the worst at understanding this sport in every single way to think this team is ass.

Or to think we are a just generally a below .500 team without ignoring everything that happened, and ignoring sufficient effort at tanking... and to ignore what we are doing to lose... literally out of nowhere all of a sudden, when you are watching and asking for it all year long.
User avatar
VinBaker6
RealGM
Posts: 26,027
And1: 61,087
Joined: Jul 24, 2012
Location: The Horn
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#4 » by VinBaker6 » Fri May 7, 2021 8:10 am

If the idea is that we just go back to Toronto next season with Birch as our starting C and bring everyone back, and that we will magically be a top 4 seed next season, then I don't know what to say.

Everything you've described in your post is the definition of a mediocre team.
Image

S/O to TZ!
User avatar
7 Footer
Forum Mod - Raptors
Forum Mod - Raptors
Posts: 6,929
And1: 23,312
Joined: Jun 24, 2015
Location: Footlong
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#5 » by 7 Footer » Fri May 7, 2021 8:22 am

This was the absolute perfect season to tank and get a high draft pick and we blew it.
Image
User avatar
pingpongrac
Head Coach
Posts: 6,639
And1: 8,171
Joined: Mar 18, 2015
   

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#6 » by pingpongrac » Fri May 7, 2021 8:24 am

Less than 30 minutes after a positive thread is created, here comes Steelo Green to rain on the parade.

Lowry has been a bit worse than last year, but not a substantial amount. AST, REB and TS% are nearly identical while his PPG has dropped by 2 because his USG%, FGA and FTr are more in line with his 2017/18-2018/19 seasons. His impact has been noticeably smaller, but a large part of that has to do with the fact that he's been the 3rd/4th option most of the season and playing a lot of minutes with Baynes and/or a mediocre bench as well as 5 games as essentially a 3-man team alongside Powell and Boucher.

Of course we're much better than our record. Do you really think we'd be a 33-49 team next season if the same players came back and played at the same level? Especially now that we have a serviceable C in Birch and more of a consistent bench rotation, this should at the very least be a .500 team. I don't know why you're acting like the difference between where we are now and a .500 record isn't quite large.
Image
User avatar
PRESTIGE
Analyst
Posts: 3,576
And1: 2,209
Joined: Jan 17, 2011
Location: The secret impresses no one. The trick you use it for is everything.
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#7 » by PRESTIGE » Fri May 7, 2021 8:24 am

It would only be safe to say that after next season. What happens if we are a 10-12th place team next year once again?
User avatar
pingpongrac
Head Coach
Posts: 6,639
And1: 8,171
Joined: Mar 18, 2015
   

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#8 » by pingpongrac » Fri May 7, 2021 8:34 am

VinBaker6 wrote:If the idea is that we just go back to Toronto next season with Birch as our starting C and bring everyone back, and that we will magically be a top 4 seed next season, then I don't know what to say.

Everything you've described in your post is the definition of a mediocre team.
If you can't realize that we have been bad with this roster this year because of the circumstances, then I don't know what to say.

It's wild how we can go from our 2018/19 team losing Kawhi and Green while adding no one of worth but Davis (who was very good as a rookie) and seeing slight improvements from Boucher and OG, yet we finished with our franchise best win % then we finish with our worst win % in nearly a decade after losing a washed-up Gasol and an average Ibaka and people seriously think this roster is .400 win% level bad without two aging Cs.
Image
User avatar
Steelo Green
RealGM
Posts: 13,768
And1: 23,211
Joined: Feb 06, 2013

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#9 » by Steelo Green » Fri May 7, 2021 8:39 am

pingpongrac wrote:Less than 30 minutes after a positive thread is created, here comes Steelo Green to rain on the parade.

Lowry has been a bit worse than last year, but not a substantial amount. AST, REB and TS% are nearly identical while his PPG has dropped by 2 because his USG%, FGA and FTr are more in line with his 2017/18-2018/19 seasons. His impact has been noticeably smaller, but a large part of that has to do with the fact that he's been the 3rd/4th option most of the season and playing a lot of minutes with Baynes and/or a mediocre bench as well as 5 games as essentially a 3-man team alongside Powell and Boucher.

Of course we're much better than our record. Do you really think we'd be a 33-49 team next season if the same players came back and played at the same level? Especially now that we have a serviceable C in Birch and more of a consistent bench rotation, this should at the very least be a .500 team. I don't know why you're acting like the difference between where we are now and a .500 record isn't quite large.

I don’t think one can dictate whether the thread is to be positive or negative.

Numbers don’t need to show it, we all know Kyle has taken a step back and the record shows it as well.

What is a Fred, OG, Siakam core capable of?

Are we better than any of the top 6?

We are a fight for the playoff team unless we hit on a pick. This is the reality.
User avatar
VinBaker6
RealGM
Posts: 26,027
And1: 61,087
Joined: Jul 24, 2012
Location: The Horn
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#10 » by VinBaker6 » Fri May 7, 2021 8:44 am

pingpongrac wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:If the idea is that we just go back to Toronto next season with Birch as our starting C and bring everyone back, and that we will magically be a top 4 seed next season, then I don't know what to say.

Everything you've described in your post is the definition of a mediocre team.
If you can't realize that we have been bad with this roster this year because of the circumstances, then I don't know what to say.

It's wild how we can go from our 2018/19 team losing Kawhi and Green while adding no one of worth but Davis (who was very good as a rookie) and seeing slight improvements from Boucher and OG, yet we finished with our franchise best win % then we finish with our worst win % in nearly a decade after losing a washed-up Gasol and an average Ibaka and people seriously think this roster is .400 win% level bad without two aging Cs.
You're not looking at the rest of the Eastern conference.

The top 3 is undisputed, Brooklyn, Philly and Milwaukee.

After that you have the following teams in no particular order:

The Knicks, who have played at a 55 win pace by all statistical measures since acquiring and having Rose in the lineup. They will also have the chance to add an FA now that they finally have a culture that is attractive to join.

The Hawks, who are absolutely loaded with talent and have missed DeAndre Hunter most of the season despite him breaking out. They have 7-8 players who can drop 25 any given night.

The Celtics, who are mediocre but have 2 players better than anyone on our roster.

The Heat, who are pretty mediocre but again, have 2 players better than anyone on our roster. Not to mention they have all intentions to add Kyle Lowry to their team this summer.

That's 7 teams who are in better positions than us going into next season. Then you have a team like Charlotte who was poised to be a 6 seed before injuries derailed them. Lamelo has been great and will only get better. Bridges has been a stud. Rozier has turned into an athletic Freddy V.

Where do we fall in the East? I see us battling for a playoff spot in 7-10 range. I think this is pretty clear.
Image

S/O to TZ!
User avatar
pingpongrac
Head Coach
Posts: 6,639
And1: 8,171
Joined: Mar 18, 2015
   

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#11 » by pingpongrac » Fri May 7, 2021 9:08 am

VinBaker6 wrote:
pingpongrac wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:If the idea is that we just go back to Toronto next season with Birch as our starting C and bring everyone back, and that we will magically be a top 4 seed next season, then I don't know what to say.

Everything you've described in your post is the definition of a mediocre team.
If you can't realize that we have been bad with this roster this year because of the circumstances, then I don't know what to say.

It's wild how we can go from our 2018/19 team losing Kawhi and Green while adding no one of worth but Davis (who was very good as a rookie) and seeing slight improvements from Boucher and OG, yet we finished with our franchise best win % then we finish with our worst win % in nearly a decade after losing a washed-up Gasol and an average Ibaka and people seriously think this roster is .400 win% level bad without two aging Cs.
You're not looking at the rest of the Eastern conference.

The top 3 is undisputed, Brooklyn, Philly and Milwaukee.

After that you have the following teams in no particular order:

The Knicks, who have played at a 55 win pace by all statistical measures since acquiring and having Rose in the lineup. They will also have the chance to add an FA now that they finally have a culture that is attractive to join.

The Hawks, who are absolutely loaded with talent and have missed DeAndre Hunter most of the season despite him breaking out. They have 7-8 players who can drop 25 any given night.

The Celtics, who are mediocre but have 2 players better than anyone on our roster.

The Heat, who are pretty mediocre but again, have 2 players better than anyone on our roster. Not to mention they have all intentions to add Kyle Lowry to their team this summer.

That's 7 teams who are in better positions than us going into next season. Then you have a team like Charlotte who was poised to be a 6 seed before injuries derailed them. Lamelo has been great and will only get better. Bridges has been a stud. Rozier has turned into an athletic Freddy V.

Where do we fall in the East? I see us battling for a playoff spot in 7-10 range. I think this is pretty clear.
There is no denying that Brooklyn, Philly and Milwaukee are top 3 for at least 2 more seasons. New York and Atlanta are promising young teams, sure, but they're not clearly better teams RIGHT NOW. Boston and Miami are very mediocre teams after their top 3-4 players and while they have the better top end talent, over the course of the season they should not be 10 wins better than us. It's odd how some people continuously project other teams to get better through internal growth (like Charlotte), yet it's hogwash to even bring up the notion that Siakam could have a bounce-back year under normal circumstances or someone like OG (or Trent) takes the next step to becoming a borderline all-star.

7-10 seed range is a decently fair prediction, but the point of this thread isn't to crap on the outlook of our "mediocre" core. It was to bring light of the fact that, by virtually every metric and statistic, this year's team is much better than their record shows -- and that comes with them playing away from home for an entire year. It turned into a thread about next year though when I was very clearly talking about this current season.
Image
User avatar
canz55
Senior
Posts: 501
And1: 549
Joined: Aug 13, 2020
       

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#12 » by canz55 » Fri May 7, 2021 9:10 am

VinBaker6 wrote:
pingpongrac wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:If the idea is that we just go back to Toronto next season with Birch as our starting C and bring everyone back, and that we will magically be a top 4 seed next season, then I don't know what to say.

Everything you've described in your post is the definition of a mediocre team.
If you can't realize that we have been bad with this roster this year because of the circumstances, then I don't know what to say.

It's wild how we can go from our 2018/19 team losing Kawhi and Green while adding no one of worth but Davis (who was very good as a rookie) and seeing slight improvements from Boucher and OG, yet we finished with our franchise best win % then we finish with our worst win % in nearly a decade after losing a washed-up Gasol and an average Ibaka and people seriously think this roster is .400 win% level bad without two aging Cs.
You're not looking at the rest of the Eastern conference.

The top 3 is undisputed, Brooklyn, Philly and Milwaukee.

After that you have the following teams in no particular order:

The Knicks, who have played at a 55 win pace by all statistical measures since acquiring and having Rose in the lineup. They will also have the chance to add an FA now that they finally have a culture that is attractive to join.

The Hawks, who are absolutely loaded with talent and have missed DeAndre Hunter most of the season despite him breaking out. They have 7-8 players who can drop 25 any given night.

The Celtics, who are mediocre but have 2 players better than anyone on our roster.

The Heat, who are pretty mediocre but again, have 2 players better than anyone on our roster. Not to mention they have all intentions to add Kyle Lowry to their team this summer.

That's 7 teams who are in better positions than us going into next season. Then you have a team like Charlotte who was poised to be a 6 seed before injuries derailed them. Lamelo has been great and will only get better. Bridges has been a stud. Rozier has turned into an athletic Freddy V.

Where do we fall in the East? I see us battling for a playoff spot in 7-10 range. I think this is pretty clear.
It's only one year; people need to stop analyzing this season in a vacuum.

Phoenix have a legit chance at being NBA Champions while the season prior they couldn't make the bubble.

OP laid out statistical data and is showing hard evidence pointing towards an abberation season. The counter perspective has no data or analyses but rather the responses are only to say: "the opposition got better so by default we're still mediocre".

Isn't it possible that the surge in performances by some of these teams like the Knicks are also an abberation of sorts?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app
ImageWe the Champs...
User avatar
Steelo Green
RealGM
Posts: 13,768
And1: 23,211
Joined: Feb 06, 2013

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#13 » by Steelo Green » Fri May 7, 2021 11:29 am

canz55 wrote:
VinBaker6 wrote:
pingpongrac wrote:If you can't realize that we have been bad with this roster this year because of the circumstances, then I don't know what to say.

It's wild how we can go from our 2018/19 team losing Kawhi and Green while adding no one of worth but Davis (who was very good as a rookie) and seeing slight improvements from Boucher and OG, yet we finished with our franchise best win % then we finish with our worst win % in nearly a decade after losing a washed-up Gasol and an average Ibaka and people seriously think this roster is .400 win% level bad without two aging Cs.
You're not looking at the rest of the Eastern conference.

The top 3 is undisputed, Brooklyn, Philly and Milwaukee.

After that you have the following teams in no particular order:

The Knicks, who have played at a 55 win pace by all statistical measures since acquiring and having Rose in the lineup. They will also have the chance to add an FA now that they finally have a culture that is attractive to join.

The Hawks, who are absolutely loaded with talent and have missed DeAndre Hunter most of the season despite him breaking out. They have 7-8 players who can drop 25 any given night.

The Celtics, who are mediocre but have 2 players better than anyone on our roster.

The Heat, who are pretty mediocre but again, have 2 players better than anyone on our roster. Not to mention they have all intentions to add Kyle Lowry to their team this summer.

That's 7 teams who are in better positions than us going into next season. Then you have a team like Charlotte who was poised to be a 6 seed before injuries derailed them. Lamelo has been great and will only get better. Bridges has been a stud. Rozier has turned into an athletic Freddy V.

Where do we fall in the East? I see us battling for a playoff spot in 7-10 range. I think this is pretty clear.
It's only one year; people need to stop analyzing this season in a vacuum.

Phoenix have a legit chance at being NBA Champions while the season prior they couldn't make the bubble.

OP laid out statistical data and is showing hard evidence pointing towards an abberation season. The counter perspective has no data or analyses but rather the responses are only to say: "the opposition got better so by default we're still mediocre".

Isn't it possible that the surge in performances by some of these teams like the Knicks are also an abberation of sorts?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

The Phoenix Suns were an up and coming team about to make the jump who just added a true floor general in Chris Paul who has had an MVP season. Not really comparable.

We can analyze it in a vacuum for sure. We lost Gasol, Ibaka, Kyle aging and we are a mediocre team.

This team will be better next year but we can’t compare us to teams which have young star talent. Fred and Pascal are our best players at the age of 27 and both are just good not greet players.

OG is a good player too but not a star.

This teams ceiling is a second round team and everyone will keep praying to the stars it will fall suit like it did with Kawhi as though it is just so repeatable and not realizing now player on this team is as close to the talent that Kyle was.
User avatar
Raps in 4
RealGM
Posts: 51,229
And1: 39,984
Joined: Nov 01, 2008
Location: Toronto
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#14 » by Raps in 4 » Fri May 7, 2021 11:34 am

We know. That's why we're tanking. We're basically the 96-97 Spurs.
Ramed Nazored
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,345
And1: 9,447
Joined: Dec 13, 2016

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#15 » by Ramed Nazored » Fri May 7, 2021 12:06 pm

pingpongrac wrote:Less than 30 minutes after a positive thread is created, here comes Steelo Green to rain on the parade.

Lowry has been a bit worse than last year, but not a substantial amount. AST, REB and TS% are nearly identical while his PPG has dropped by 2 because his USG%, FGA and FTr are more in line with his 2017/18-2018/19 seasons. His impact has been noticeably smaller, but a large part of that has to do with the fact that he's been the 3rd/4th option most of the season and playing a lot of minutes with Baynes and/or a mediocre bench as well as 5 games as essentially a 3-man team alongside Powell and Boucher.

Of course we're much better than our record. Do you really think we'd be a 33-49 team next season if the same players came back and played at the same level? Especially now that we have a serviceable C in Birch and more of a consistent bench rotation, this should at the very least be a .500 team. I don't know why you're acting like the difference between where we are now and a .500 record isn't quite large.


Last year, Steelo Green claimed the Brooklyn Nets would beat us in the first round. He's not here in good faith. I've never seen him write anything supportive or our team, it's players, or management.

Anyways, like Fred said, "we're the best worst team of all time." No one had the Raptors falling off this bad this season. You take exact squad, as currently constructed, and put them in TO without being decimated by COVID, and you have a team that wins 45-47 games. Not a "great" team, or a "contending" team, but a good team, which is more than most franchises can claim in a transition season.

What I find hilarious is how these guys extend concessions towards every other team in the league not named the Raptors. The raptors played a ton of games this year missing their best players due to COVID/injury, and surprise, they lost almost all those games. No, "most teams" didn't have to deal with three of their five best players sidelined for weeks due to a complex cardiovascular disease that has killed 3.2 million people globally. Please point to to the multi-week stretch where Philly played without Embiid/Simmons/Tobais, or Miami played without Bam/Butler/Robinson. It doesn't exist.

These guys are just hellbent on being cynical and pessimistic. It's as if they think doing as much makes them smart, or analytical/ It doesn't. There's zero balance. You make a very well reasoned post, substantiate by data, and the kneejerk response is "they would have sucked anyways". None of them engaged with the data or provided counterevidence that would support why team would have "sucked anyways". They're just reflexively irritating. These were the same guys who've been calling us a "treadmill" team for years, and who were just as vocal in their cynicism and whining last year when the team was on pace for 60 wins. How can anyone take these people seriously?

Thanks for taking the time to make a thoughtful, evidence informed post.
User avatar
TheRealDeal
RealGM
Posts: 10,232
And1: 10,251
Joined: Nov 17, 2004
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#16 » by TheRealDeal » Fri May 7, 2021 12:10 pm

7 Footer wrote:This was the absolute perfect season to tank and get a high draft pick and we blew it.


I wouldn't say we blew it if we end up with the 7th or 8th best lottery odds. There was no chance this team was finishing with a worse record than some of the teams in the bottom 6. We still have a positive point differential :lol:
User avatar
Raps in 4
RealGM
Posts: 51,229
And1: 39,984
Joined: Nov 01, 2008
Location: Toronto
 

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#17 » by Raps in 4 » Fri May 7, 2021 12:15 pm

7 Footer wrote:This was the absolute perfect season to tank and get a high draft pick and we blew it.


I wouldn't call this blowing it. There was no chance we'd end up lower than OKC, Orlando, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, and Minnesota. Those teams wouldn't make the playoffs in the WNBA. 7th worst record considering the talent on this roster is a remarkable achievement and gives us good odds at a top-4 pick.
User avatar
Mikistan
RealGM
Posts: 18,595
And1: 28,936
Joined: Jun 30, 2008
Location: Shamblesland
     

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#18 » by Mikistan » Fri May 7, 2021 12:28 pm

Johnny Bball wrote:You would have to be the worst at understanding this sport in every single way to think this team is ass.

Or to think we are a just generally a below .500 team without ignoring everything that happened, and ignoring sufficient effort at tanking... and to ignore what we are doing to lose... literally out of nowhere all of a sudden, when you are watching and asking for it all year long.

This team has enough weaknesses especially in its top 2 guys when Lowry leaves that if you don't clean up or make sure they don't fall into the same lazy habits that there is a chance the results only come in slightly better.

We play down to our competition and go on scoring droughts and are suspect in the clutch. The refs will never give us home cooking Tampa or Toronto
Image
User avatar
Indeed
RealGM
Posts: 16,759
And1: 1,631
Joined: Aug 21, 2009

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#19 » by Indeed » Fri May 7, 2021 12:36 pm

pingpongrac wrote:We have the 7th best FG% defence, we force the most turnovers while we're 9th in ball protection on offence, we're 3rd in 3FGM (though 26th in OPP 3FGM), etc. The only areas where we've really struggled is on the boards (27th in REB%, though we've been much better since the addition of Gillespie and Birch) and keeping our opponents off the FT line (30th in OPP FTr, 28th in OPP FTA).

What I did notice is that many of our bench players have been big negatives in Q4. Gillespie (-15.5 NetRTG), Hood (-9 NetRTG) and Flynn (-8 NetRTG) especially have been playing pretty big minutes lately (~5 Q4 MPG) and it's leading directly to losses (New York, Utah and Denver games come to mind).


Please see the stats difference on this thread (before last night's game):
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2077070&p=90650660#p90650660

1) Rebounding has been about the same (22th last year vs 27th this year)
2) Our DRtg was 2nd last season, dropped to 15th this year
3) The biggest difference Opp 3P% - 37.8 (25th) - 33.7 (1st last season)
4) But our opponent corner 3 % and Assist % has been the same (30th)

From the stats above, it seems opponents are shooting very well on the 3s against us. The league average has rise slightly on shooting 3s, which is one reason.
Another reason I suspect is that we have no rim protection, and our defenders are playing off a bit (instead of the tight defense we previously played), and allowed opponent to shoot a higher percentage.

Regardless of defense, our offense has been the same around the middle of the league. And losing Lowry next season will put us below average.

I don't have the bench stats, but I feel we play them because we are giving them more minutes for development or experience.

pingpongrac wrote:It really just feels like this team/management had to recalibrate after we were decimated by COVID then decided to go the full-on tank/development route after the trade deadline because they realized that the deck was stacked against them too much to overcome. Since the trade deadline, we've been missing Lowry (14 games), FVV (10), Trent (8) and OG (6) for pretty significant time and most of it has been rest/maintenance for minor injuries which has resulted in a 9-14 record. In classic 2020/21 Raptors fashion, our win percentage (T-23rd at 39%) doesn't reflect our point differential (16th at +0.8) since the trade deadline. As FVV said, this really is the best worst team of all time. :lol:


I have to disagree on the stats after the trade deadline, the whole April we are against 500 or below teams, or elite teams without their star players. Once we play against the elite again in May, our bench went back to the bottom by not contributing much.

Perhaps this season wouldn't be as bad, but being in the middle and about to lose one of our best player, I think this is the best situation for us. Next year, we maybe around the same level, unless we make some 2 or 3 improvement, such as the following:
1) Replace the scoring of Lowry
2) Add a starting and bench Centre (Birch + a big banger)
3) Add a 3&D backup SF (replacing Johnson)
4) Add a bench scorer (Flynn is not enough against elite teams)
User avatar
Psubs
RealGM
Posts: 12,622
And1: 8,253
Joined: Nov 20, 2004
Location: Toronto

Re: Toronto is better than its record and this season should be erased from memory 

Post#20 » by Psubs » Fri May 7, 2021 12:41 pm

Mikistan wrote:
Johnny Bball wrote:You would have to be the worst at understanding this sport in every single way to think this team is ass.

Or to think we are a just generally a below .500 team without ignoring everything that happened, and ignoring sufficient effort at tanking... and to ignore what we are doing to lose... literally out of nowhere all of a sudden, when you are watching and asking for it all year long.

This team has enough weaknesses especially in its top 2 guys when Lowry leaves that if you don't clean up or make sure they don't fall into the same lazy habits that there is a chance the results only come in slightly better.

We play down to our competition and go on scoring droughts and are suspect in the clutch. The refs will never give us home cooking Tampa or Toronto


They play better when one of Lowry plays so the small backcourt but there must always be 2 (FVV - Flynn). :starwars

It seems weird but addition by subtraction of all of Lowry, Baynes, Stanley, Bembry, Hood, McCaw, will help in different ways.

I saw Trent bringing the ball up with FVV off ball a few times last night. Nurse empowering his players.

PG FVV - Flynn - Trent
SG Trent - Watson/Harris
SF OG - Yuta/1st pick
PF Siakam - Boucher
C Birch - Boucher/Gillespie
Image

Return to Toronto Raptors