New lotto odds are correctly driving Masai/Bobby’s decisions

[Michael Jordan]

If Lowry walks and the Raptors don't secure a top 4 pick they'll be in a similar boat next season - a borderline play-in tournament team. I wonder if they'd move Siakam and go even younger at that point. Like Siakam for Wiggins + multiple FRP's.

I personally wouldn't want to tank again but the talent gap between the Raps and the top east teams isn't close.

[tecumseh18]

If Lowry walks and the Raptors don't secure a top 4 pick they'll be in a similar boat next season - a borderline play-in tournament team. I wonder if they'd move Siakam and go even younger at that point. Like Siakam for Wiggins + multiple FRP's.

I personally wouldn't want to tank again but the talent gap between the Raps and the top east teams isn't close.

Masai in his post-trade deadline presser made it clear that the team could go in "any direction". So sure, a Pascal trade to get younger may be on the table.

I believe in Siakam, and think the Raps are very well positioned by having him and OG occupying the two most important spots on the floor. But ... he is being fully compensated for his production. He doesn't represent a windfall the way OG and Fred do. So trading Siakam for high picks and to ultimately free up that money sooner would not be a blunder.

But Wiggins' salary for two more seasons at >30 mill after this one makes him a negative asset. Raps would not only have to be compensated for giving up Pascal, but for taking on Wiggins. So it would need at least the Minny first (assuming it conveys) this year, GSW's first this year, and either GSW's first in either 2022 or 2023 or ... if the Raps believe in him ... Wiseman.

Think that's too much? Look at what Clippers gave up to get PG. SGA and Gallo's expiring had positive value. Wiggins just doesn't.

[the_flash__]

This is grade 3 math level.

Catering to majority of the board members.

[OAKLEY_2]

If Lowry walks and the Raptors don't secure a top 4 pick they'll be in a similar boat next season - a borderline play-in tournament team. I wonder if they'd move Siakam and go even younger at that point. Like Siakam for Wiggins + multiple FRP's.

I personally wouldn't want to tank again but the talent gap between the Raps and the top east teams isn't close.

Masai in his post-trade deadline presser made it clear that the team could go in "any direction". So sure, a Pascal trade to get younger may be on the table.

I believe in Siakam, and think the Raps are very well positioned by having him and OG occupying the two most important spots on the floor. But ... he is being fully compensated for his production. He doesn't represent a windfall the way OG and Fred do. So trading Siakam for high picks and to ultimately free up that money sooner would not be a blunder.

But Wiggins' salary for two more seasons at >30 mill after this one makes him a negative asset. Raps would not only have to be compensated for giving up Pascal, but for taking on Wiggins. So it would need at least the Minny first (assuming it conveys) this year, GSW's first this year, and either GSW's first in either 2022 or 2023 or ... if the Raps believe in him ... Wiseman.

Think that's too much? Look at what Clippers gave up to get PG. SGA and Gallo's expiring had positive value. Wiggins just doesn't.

Most important spots? That's debatable. A floor general to me is most important hands down. Dominant Small Forward number two.

[tecumseh18]

I believe in Siakam, and think the Raps are very well positioned by having him and OG occupying the two most important spots on the floor.

Most important spots? That's debatable. A floor general to me is most important hands down. Dominant Small Forward number two.

Offensively, a dedicated floor general can be helpful. But I always go back to the Derek Fisher/Tony Parker theory - i.e. you just need a shot maker at PG, whether from outside or in the lane. Nash never even got to the Finals. Marion just did a podcast with Raja Bell where he unloads on that Nash-centric offence, and why it was doomed to fail in the playoffs.

Offensively AND defensively, it's a huge advantage to have two long, switchable 1-5 or 2-5 players of the calibre of Pascal and OG. Kyle and Fred had some good games in 2019 playoffs, but overall it was Kawhi and Pascal who were driving the bus.

Ideally, you have a Lebron who checks off all the boxes. There's a reason he's had the career he's had.

[AkelaLoneWolf]

If Lowry walks and the Raptors don't secure a top 4 pick they'll be in a similar boat next season - a borderline play-in tournament team. I wonder if they'd move Siakam and go even younger at that point. Like Siakam for Wiggins + multiple FRP's.

I personally wouldn't want to tank again but the talent gap between the Raps and the top east teams isn't close.

Masai in his post-trade deadline presser made it clear that the team could go in "any direction". So sure, a Pascal trade to get younger may be on the table.

I believe in Siakam, and think the Raps are very well positioned by having him and OG occupying the two most important spots on the floor. But ... he is being fully compensated for his production. He doesn't represent a windfall the way OG and Fred do. So trading Siakam for high picks and to ultimately free up that money sooner would not be a blunder.

But Wiggins' salary for two more seasons at >30 mill after this one makes him a negative asset. Raps would not only have to be compensated for giving up Pascal, but for taking on Wiggins. So it would need at least the Minny first (assuming it conveys) this year, GSW's first this year, and either GSW's first in either 2022 or 2023 or ... if the Raps believe in him ... Wiseman.

Think that's too much? Look at what Clippers gave up to get PG. SGA and Gallo's expiring had positive value. Wiggins just doesn't.

I would want Wiseman. I still think he's a good player albeit raw and Wiggins would be a decent fit back in hometown Toronto.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

There has been a lot of tank/anti-tank discussion on this forum and unfortunately not all of it has been well-informed. I simply want to raise the importance of odds in this lottery and highlight how the updated lotto odds work in our favour if we finish 7th.

New #7 Lotto Odds:
Top 4 - 32%
1st Pick - 7.5%

Old #7 Lotto Odds:
Top 3 - 16%
1st Pick - 4.3%

With a sample of 10 draws on the tankathon lottery simulator I got the following results:

1. #8
2. #7
3. #1 - Cade Cunningham
4. #9
5. #2 - Evan Mobley
6. #7
7. #1 - Cade Cunningham
8. #7
9. #4 - Jalen Green
10. #8

At #7, I ended up with 4/10 odds that we significantly improve our team for next season (and this is without considering the potential value-add of our cap-space for FA). Point being, this is a game worth playing for our team and Masai/Bobby are correctly pulling strings to maximize our chances.

As far as the recent criticisms being flung by media towards Masai/Bobby. Ofcourse, pushing a tank onto a winning coach is not going to go over well, Nick has not been on board and remains fixated on win-now, to his own detriment in my opinion because he would be the last person to complain if he’s handed an additional all-star+ talent next year to help him close out games. You can coach your way into the playoffs, but you simply can’t coach your way to the championship without star talent to help you execute when all else fails. This draft gives us a chance to acquire such a talent and/or trade for one using this draft pick.

Also, as a disclaimer - I along with most pro-tankers on this forum are only situationally and opportunistically pro-tank. We do not have any desire for this team to remain in the lottery beyond this year. We simply and logically believe that our team, which could easily have been a playoff calibre team in any other season, has underperformed due to external factors which were not under our control (Tampa/Covid/Injuries) but the best mode of action for us moving forward is to capitalize on high lotto odds to further improve an already good team, it’s fair to argue that our team could benefit more from a high lottery pick than a lower tier team. Not to mention that our development system can also make the most out of such a player.

Thanks for this. So what were the old top 4 odds (you have old top 3)

They're the same. With the old system, only the top 3 picks were part of the lottery. Unless you finished in the top 4, it was impossible to get the 4th pick.

Awesome, thanks for explaning!

[canz55]

There's no sense in complaining about the lottery position now that the season is almost a wrap. What the anti tankers lament (I can't speak for everyone) is the constant **** on our players during an arduous and confusing period for this club.

I know its a difficult concept to comprehend for a lot of people but its possible for good ball clubs to have a bad season. It doesn't mean that a cycle is over (cycles are over usually when the premier players are gone or get too old) it just means that a few things need to be recalibrated - the big issue this season being the ominous situation with the Raptors not being able to play in Toronto.

[Hansari]

There's no sense in complaining about the lottery position now that the season is almost a wrap. What the anti tankers lament (I can't speak for everyone) is the constant **** on our players during an arduous and confusing period for this club.

I know its a difficult concept to comprehend for a lot of people but its possible for good ball clubs to have a bad season. It doesn't mean that a cycle is over (cycles are over usually when the premier players are gone or get too old) it just means that a few things need to be recalibrated - the big issue this season being the ominous situation with the Raptors not being able to play in Toronto.

Agree with this, also feel the same way about talking down the same players we used to love 2 years ago. We're still a good team that has had a bad season due to external factors.

[mrdressup]

What’s the point in simulating 4/10 times? That’s too small a sample to indicate anything. We already know it’s 32% so the 40% is boosted from a lack of sample size

With that said, 32% is a very solid chance so I’m excited

The actual draft is even less of a sampling. It only gets run once. Anything can happen. Odds won't mean anything after the fact.

[Bruin]

What’s the point in simulating 4/10 times? That’s too small a sample to indicate anything. We already know it’s 32% so the 40% is boosted from a lack of sample size

With that said, 32% is a very solid chance so I’m excited

The actual draft is even less of a sampling. It only gets run once. Anything can happen. Odds won't mean anything after the fact.

That’s not how odds work though. The draft is the actual thing instead of just a simulation.

Having 32% odds is fact and it relates to the amount of lotto ball combinations result in us winning

[maternal85]

Unless they go back to weighted balls and gift us Ewing level talent for basically making this season possible. It's as reliable as buying a lotto ticket for your retirement plan.

Top seven normally gets you a solid player, it doesn't guarantee an all-star level type talent. Even if you do draft a good player, they'll be too young to do much for the next 4 years or so. Most 20 year old players aren't much help.

No pick guarantees you an all-star type talent. Even if this pick doesn't do much in the next 4 years, you park him in the 905 and develop him. What's your point ? We'll still be able to improve the roster with a trade from our cap space, or signing a good free agent. We also have 2 second round picks I believe. We can draft players with potential, park them in the 905, watch them develop, and we'll still have their bird right. Ujiri has found undrafted gems like FVV, Boucher, and now Fred. He has found gems in the 2nd round or late 1st rounder in Powel and Pascal. Imagine what he'll do with a decent lottery pick.

This off-season will be amazing !