“Just add a superstar and we are a contender” - Debunked

[mintsa]

I still have my customized Giannis raptors jersey in my cart on the real sports website......just in case.....lol !

[Fairview4Life]

I miss blogs.

[Jerry Lucas]

I mostly agree with this. No team in the superstar era other than the Mavs outlier year 1 has won without LeBron, Steph, Kawhi or KD leading their team. However, I don't agree that we should continue a rebuild next year and not compete because the superstar trade route likely won't be viable.

LeBron, Steph, Kawhi and KD won't dominate chips for the rest of time eventually the next wave of superstars will replace them starting with Emoni Bates in 2023. A multi year rebuild often leads to the team culture becoming so rotten that you end up like the TWolves or Sixers, where in the latter case you're seeing now what the multi year rebuild did to the core players' heads, they still have that loser mentality to this day. The closest they came to being relevant was when Jimmy joined them for half a season.

The stealth tank was nice this year in Tampa, but back in Toronto next year it likely won't be viable assuming at least the C issues get fixed. Also getting or not getting Cade/Green/Suggs is a huge factor in all this, probably should have waited till after the draft lottery to make this thread.

[ConSarnit]

We will never (ok, 99.99999%) find another Kawhi trade.

1) the price has gone up too much. Big market teams have pretty much said f*** it and will sell the farm in trades. Kawhi’s price was a pittance compared to even Jrue (a far lesser player).

2) that trade was successful because Kawhi literally played like the best player in the league during the playoffs. How many times has the best player in the league been traded?

The odds of finding “Kawhi” in the draft are much higher (still low though) than finding him (the best player in the league) in a trade.

We do really need a high level superstar to compete though. We pretty much know exactly what this team is: a couple of 2a/2b guys (Siakam/Lowry) and high level role players. The only untapped guy is OG.

[Pooh_Jeter]

Just this year, the Raps could've gave up a bunch of draft picks for 2 years of Harden.

Stars are always moving. You just have to calculate the cost and risk and determine if it's worth it.

Toronto wasn't on Harden's trade demand list which grew to at least 6 teams.

The teams that are willing and able to give up these draft hauls are the coastal elite teams which the Kirk Goldsberry article broke down in detail. The deal also didn't just include draft picks. LeVert and Allen are real pieces.

This makes stars becoming available in trade largely irrelevant to the Raptors.

[OakleyDokely]

Just this year, the Raps could've gave up a bunch of draft picks for 2 years of Harden.

Stars are always moving. You just have to calculate the cost and risk and determine if it's worth it.

Toronto wasn't on Harden's trade demand list which grew to at least 6 teams.

The teams that are willing and able to give up these draft hauls are the coastal elite teams which the Kirk Goldsberry article broke down in detail. The deal also didn't just include draft picks. LeVert and Allen are real pieces.

This makes stars becoming available in trade largely irrelevant to the Raptors.

It doesn't matter what list Harden had. He was under contract and he would've played.

You think Kawhi wanted to play in Toronto? You think Toronto was on Kawhi's list?

That's why contracts exist. Unless a player wants to retire.

The Raps could've easily matched that BRK package of draft picks and a couple solid young guys if they wanted to.

[YogurtProducer]

U didnt debunk anything. U just gave ur janky opinion on why it wouldn't work in your own weird way while making up players trade values and what they would go for out of thin air.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

Really?

What did I make up? The trade value for Harden? AD? Jrue?

What do you think the value of Kawhi is. I mean you would think comparing his contemporaries and making a fairly educated guess is not an opinion but sure.

There’s been a lot of you’re wrong I’m right as a means of discussion and vitriol associated but little substance in response.

I’m open for discussion, but this you suck, you’re wrong, without reading or having an actual reply for what was said isn’t really discussion.

Siakam and OG are better than any player traded for a superstar since Demar was dealt.

[brownbobcat]

What did I make up? The trade value for Harden? AD? Jrue?

Remind me again, did Houston get the equivalent of "OG + Pascal + + Flynn picks galore + swaps"?

Obviously Houston got ripped off since Harden dictated the terms, Tillman didn't want to deal with Philly and there are other circumstances Toronto can't count on duplicating. Nobody is saying that this strategy is easy or guaranteed, just that it makes more sense at this stage rather than blowing everything up.

[Pooh_Jeter]

Just this year, the Raps could've gave up a bunch of draft picks for 2 years of Harden.

Stars are always moving. You just have to calculate the cost and risk and determine if it's worth it.

Toronto wasn't on Harden's trade demand list which grew to at least 6 teams.

The teams that are willing and able to give up these draft hauls are the coastal elite teams which the Kirk Goldsberry article broke down in detail. The deal also didn't just include draft picks. LeVert and Allen are real pieces.

This makes stars becoming available in trade largely irrelevant to the Raptors.

It doesn't matter what list Harden had. He was under contract and he would've played.

You think Kawhi wanted to play in Toronto? You think Toronto was on Kawhi's list?

That's why contracts exist. Unless a player wants to retire.

The Raps could've easily matched that BRK package of draft picks and a couple solid young guys if they wanted to.

Did you not see Harden literally dog it out of Houston?

Yes, the Raptors could have matched the package, but then the team they would be left with would be awful and you would have an unhappy Harden who certainly wouldn't be interested in staying long term.

I could put my entire life savings into a single hand of poker, it doesn't mean it's a good or smart move.

[gerrit4]

Well, adding a "free" superstar would certainly put this team back into contention. It was probably the best argument for why we were trying to get Giannis in free agency. Adding Giannis to this group, along with a top 10 pick would probably make us an eastern powerhouse.

But you're right - the cost of a superstar is really high right now. Not to mention, there are very few players that have put together the type of playoff run that Kawhi did for us in the past twenty years. I mean, we probably have Kawhi, Lebron, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Wade, Dirk, Durant. It's hard to get any of those guys - in a draft, free agency, or trade.


I'd argue that the way to get back to contention will be through many smart moves that plan towards the long term. That doesn't necessarily mean tanking. The reason we were able to be very good for so long was because we were flush with assets. We had future picks from other teams, good players on rookie deals, good players on manageable deals, and depth at every position. Finding more undrafted players like Fred & Boucher, late picks like Siakam, Norm & OG, will help us fill the asset bin, just as well as getting future picks and tanking. It will probably require a bit of flexibility from the FO.

I'd argue that nearly every championship has involved some sort of freak occurrence that has a 99.9% chance of never happening again. The cap spike that allowed the best regular season team of all time to add Kevin Durant? Injuries to Love & Kyrie? A worldwide pandemic? Getting Kawhi at a discount and having the warriors lose two of their best players to injury? Historically bad officiating (I guess that's happened a few times)? The list goes on.

I get it though - acquiring a star player who perfectly fits and turns you into a legit contender is pretty rare. Obviously, you can see how a team like OKC could actually acquire a superstar without really affecting their roster. If we had that sort of asset collection right now, we really could easily be a superstar away.

My point? I guess I just think that this front office needs to make smart decisions and properly evaluate the talent and potential of the roster. I'm sure that the potential of trading Siakam may come up this summer, and I just hope they make the right decision on how to deal with that.

[Los_29]

What did I make up? The trade value for Harden? AD? Jrue?

Remind me again, did Houston get the equivalent of "OG + Pascal + + Flynn picks galore + swaps"?

Obviously Houston got ripped off since Harden dictated the terms, Tillman didn't want to deal with Philly and there are other circumstances Toronto can't count on duplicating. Nobody is saying that this strategy is easy or guaranteed, just that it makes more sense at this stage rather than blowing everything up.

Exactly.

But I think even worse than that is him continuing to claim that it takes 7 FRP's and swaps to get a superstar. There is something called the Stepien rule which means you can't trade picks in consecutive years. Then there is the 7 year rule which prohibits teams from trading picks more than 7 years in advance. So 3 FRP's plus 4 swaps is what you're getting and you're definitely not getting an all-star in Pascal along with a very good young player in OG as well.

[OakleyDokely]

Toronto wasn't on Harden's trade demand list which grew to at least 6 teams.

The teams that are willing and able to give up these draft hauls are the coastal elite teams which the Kirk Goldsberry article broke down in detail. The deal also didn't just include draft picks. LeVert and Allen are real pieces.

This makes stars becoming available in trade largely irrelevant to the Raptors.

It doesn't matter what list Harden had. He was under contract and he would've played.

You think Kawhi wanted to play in Toronto? You think Toronto was on Kawhi's list?

That's why contracts exist. Unless a player wants to retire.

The Raps could've easily matched that BRK package of draft picks and a couple solid young guys if they wanted to.

Did you not see Harden literally dog it out of Houston?

Yes, the Raptors could have matched the package, but then the team they would be left with would be awful and you would have an unhappy Harden who certainly wouldn't be interested in staying long term.

I could put my entire life savings into a single hand of poker, it doesn't mean it's a good or smart move.

Whether you believe it would be good move or not isn't the point. Masai agreed with you and didnt go after him seriously.

The point is, stars change teams. They get traded. They leave via free agency. It happens every year, including this year. There are multiple ways of building and acquiring talent. Regardless of which route you take, it takes extreme luck to land a superstar and then win with that superstar.

[Ramed Nazored]

Ah yes, more "facts and logic".

[brownbobcat]

Whether you believe it would be good move or not isn't the point. Masai agreed with you and didnt go after him seriously.

The point is, stars change teams. They get traded. They leave via free agency. It happens every year, including this year. There are multiple ways of building and acquiring talent.

More importantly, I think there's a time and a place for each way. There's a time when a scorched-earth tank is the way. Doing that this season would've meant casting away some decent pieces at the expense of a few more ping pong balls.

I still think it's too early for that. Although they aren't superstars, It isn't that easy to find guys like Van Vleet, OG and Siakam. If the writing is on the wall next year, Toronto can still flip them - the reset button is always available, but they should use it judiciously since it can't be undone.

[Clay Davis]

I don't think you know what "add" means. It doesn't imply subtraction.

Properly speaking, adding at a cost is not actually addition ( it is addition and subtraction), in which case you didn't actually debunk anything but a strawmanned position.

If what you want to say is that adding a superstar is impossible, you should just say it instead of being misleading.

You didn't actually debunk the claim: that would involve assuming it to be true in its unadulterated, actual form without contingencies -- that is, we add a superstar without any subtraction -- then showing that its conclusion would not follow.

What?

To add a superstar the way everyone keeps talking is to emulate what we did with Kawhi so that is in response to that. So yes - you cannot add like that without subtraction.

I’ve been saying the most efficient way to add a star is via the draft - not that it’s impossible. You’re just making things up and touting it as a valid point.

Adding at a cost is not addition? What? Are you saying the cost of Demar + Jak + First was not an addition at a cost? You’re pontificating meaning of the word addition and you don’t understand it yourself it seems.

Again if you think I said it’s impossible then you misread. I clearly said the ways to get it, just the cost to get one.

If you pay money for goods, there’s a cost to get that addition. You simply don’t get it for free.

Your last point is moot. We added a superstar via subtraction of assets. You can use eclectic and language narrating hubris but it is just jargon with little tangible value.

I don't believe that you know how to read.

[OakleyDokely]

Whether you believe it would be good move or not isn't the point. Masai agreed with you and didnt go after him seriously.

The point is, stars change teams. They get traded. They leave via free agency. It happens every year, including this year. There are multiple ways of building and acquiring talent.

More importantly, I think there's a time and a place for each way. There's a time when a scorched-earth tank is the way. Doing that this season would've meant casting away some decent pieces at the expense of a few more ping pong balls.

I still think it's too early for that. Although they aren't superstars, It isn't that easy to find guys like Van Vleet, OG and Siakam. If the writing is on the wall next year, Toronto can still flip them - the reset button is always available, but they should use it judiciously since it can't be undone.

Yup. I'm in favor of this stealth tank. It was the right move based on the circumstances.

Draft well in all rounds, trade well, sign a free agent or two. Build up your assets and your team to point where you can make a big move that puts you into contention. Nothing you can do that will guarantee a championship.

[Psubs]

I still have my customized Giannis raptors jersey in my cart on the real sports website......just in case.....lol !

Let's hope Milwaukee loses in the 1st round to Miami.

Would Siakam, Trent and #7 be enough for Giannis? I don't really want to attach another future 1st but would lotter protect it and if they would send 2nd pick back.

PG FVV - Flynn - 2nd pick
SG Lowry - Harris - 2nd pick
SF OG - Yuta/Watson
PF Giannis - Boucher
C Birch - Giannis - Gillespie

Pretty much every player can shoot 3 except for Birch and Gillespie, over 37%.

[KL78192020]

If you actually look at how contending teams acquired their stars, it's mostly through trades or free agency, not through the draft.

The draft isn't a cure all solution. Not only do you need to be bad, you need luck in the lottery. Then you have to hope the year you get a top pick there's a star available. And then once you have that star you have to convince him to stay longterm with what most likely is a terrible team. So many things have to go right just to draft someone really good and you haven't even built a good team yet. Most teams don't even win with their star draft pick because you need more than 1 player to win.

The key to winning has always been great management. Great management finds talent EVERYWHERE. The focus isn't just the draft, or just free agency. It's about finding market inefficiencies and adding overlooked assets which is how Masai and other great GMs were able to build contending teams. Tanking for Anthony Edwards isn't team building.

Curry was drafted by the Warriors and is a MVP and has helped them win. The problem is not having the ability to the draft a star, its building around them. OKC screwed up by being cheap and trading Harden instead of paying him the max of his rookie deal. Pelicans management sucks and they had to trade AD.

If Masai/Bobby are shi*ty managers well then yea, they won't be able to build around a drafted star or keep them. Are you saying if the Raptors draft a star this year he'll leave as free agent or have to be traded?

[C Court]

Debunked - LOL.

[OakleyDokely]

If you actually look at how contending teams acquired their stars, it's mostly through trades or free agency, not through the draft.

The draft isn't a cure all solution. Not only do you need to be bad, you need luck in the lottery. Then you have to hope the year you get a top pick there's a star available. And then once you have that star you have to convince him to stay longterm with what most likely is a terrible team. So many things have to go right just to draft someone really good and you haven't even built a good team yet. Most teams don't even win with their star draft pick because you need more than 1 player to win.

The key to winning has always been great management. Great management finds talent EVERYWHERE. The focus isn't just the draft, or just free agency. It's about finding market inefficiencies and adding overlooked assets which is how Masai and other great GMs were able to build contending teams. Tanking for Anthony Edwards isn't team building.

Curry was drafted by the Warriors and is a MVP and has helped them win. The problem is not having the ability to the draft a star, its building around them. OKC screwed up by being cheap and trading Harden instead of paying him the max of his rookie deal. Pelicans management sucks and they had to trade AD.

If Masai/Bobby are **** managers well then yea, they won't be able to build around a drafted star or keep them. Are you saying if the Raptors draft a star this year he'll leave as free agent or have to be traded?

I'm saying that the draft is just one way to acquire talent. GS has done a great job drafting in general. They got Curry at 7, Klay at 11, Draymond at 35.

Every team has to worry about players wanting out if they're terrible for too long. That's the big issue with tanking beyond one season. You have to make your team so bad that once you get a good young guy, you're still far away from being decent and that star expects to win.