4 Games In - How is Small Ball Working?

[YogurtProducer]

Original Post

Spoiler:

Currently this board and Reddit are flooded with "0-4 with Siakam" and "we need a real center" takes as to why we are losing games. So I just want to give an update on the stats as to whether or not this is true.

The Starting Lineup
50 minutes played
101.0 ORTG
100.0 DRTG
1.0 NRTG

This may surprise many, but our defense has been absolutely fantastic with the small ball lineup and really bad offensively. I think the offence will come around as we are currently shooting 10/34 from 3 (29%) with this lineup which makes no sense considering FVV/GTJ/OG/Pascal are shooting 40.4%, 35.0%, 36.6%, and 38.5% from 3. Really looks like a case of variance from 3 on offence.

On the other hand, opponents are shooting only 30% from 3 against this lineup. I expect this to also come up, but I also expect this lineup to be very very difficult to hit 3's on as they switch a lot and give no room on PnR's.

We have been outrebounded 42 to 52 with this lineup.

The Starting Lineup (Dragic instead of FVV)
20 minutes played
135.1ORTG
107.9DRTG
27.2 NRTG

1 game sample. 3 point shooting was good (7/16 43%) for us and our opponents shot it well to (6/10 60%).

GTJ/OG/Siakam/Barnes in total with any 5th player
72 minutes
110.6ORTG
102.8DRTG
7.7NRTG

This is just the two above together. Good stuff.

OG/Siakam/Barnes with any 4th and 5th player
75 minutes
112.9ORTG
106.1DRTG
6.8NRG

3 extra minutes when removing GTJ. Not much changes other than we are better with GTJ than Banton/Svi.

December 11 Update

Just want to bump this thread as we have not been able to see much Siakam/Anunoby/Barnes, but we HAVE seen some Siakam/Barnes/Boucher as of late and wanted to give an update how everything looks

Every lineup will consist of FVV/GTJ/Barnes/Siakam and a 5th player

BIGish
Precious - 6 games - 92 minutes - 110.1/104.0 - 6.1NRTG
Birch - 4 games - 47 minutes - 106.1/108.2 - -2.1NRTG

SMALL

Anunoby - 3 games - 50 minutes - 101.0/100.0 - 1.0NRTG
Anunoby (Dragic in FVV place) - 1 game - 20 minutes - 135.1/107.9 - 27.2NRTG
Boucher - 5 games - 38 minutes - 120.0/103.9 - 16.1NRTG
Champagnie - 4 games - 14 minutes - 151.7/106.9 - 44.8NRTG

And all the rest are very very small minutes (6 with Svi, 2 with Flynn/Yuta, 1 with Banton)

[OhCanada1091]

I can openly admit Barnes at Center is not the answer and I was wrong about that suggestion. He is able to guard man to man, in the post, on iso's 1-5 but his pick and roll recognition, understanding of when to switch, when to help and where the open man on the opponents end will be is not at a high enough level to anchor a defense. Since he has been starting at C our defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Maybe later in the season after playing most of the teams once or twice and learning a bit more about the NBA game he will be able to do it but his defensive awareness is not where I thought it was.

Physically and athletically he can do it but right now its losing us games. Toronto should consider bringing him off the bench and Barnes and Achiuwa should not be on the floor at the same time. Birch should play all his minutes with Barnes on the floor.

[Fairview4Life]

[FluLikeSymptoms]

Nurkic didn’t do anything. Portland didn’t like the matchup at all.

I have high hopes for the small lineup but these performances haven’t been great. They can do this much better.

[Ref_from_hell]

I can openly admit Barnes at Center is not the answer and I was wrong about that suggestion. He is able to guard man to man, in the post, on iso's 1-5 but his pick and roll recognition, understanding of when to switch, when to help and where the open man on the opponents end will be is not at a high enough level to anchor a defense. Since he has been starting at C our defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Maybe later in the season after playing most of the teams once or twice and learning a bit more about the NBA game he will be able to do it but his defensive awareness is not where I thought it was.

Physically and athletically he can do it but right now its losing us games. Toronto should consider bringing him off the bench and Barnes and Achiuwa should not be on the floor at the same time. Birch should play all his minutes with Barnes on the floor.

Barnes has been fantastic offensively, but his defense the last few games has been very poor. Last night especially he was missing a lot of assignments, late on rotations, getting blown by. It wasn't good. Then in those final minutes, he committed about three or four crucial turnovers. It's also difficult for a rookie to be put in this position. So obviously you give him the benefit of the doubt.

It's just weird because we looked so good for most of that first quarter both offensively and defensively, then everything just fell apart. A lot of that was our bench.

[ontnut]

I like it, but it's time for them to start translating good production into W's.
TBH I think the starters/main core are doing well. Our depth players are what's seemingly holding us back right now. Really need one of Birch/Achiuwa to develop into that 5th piece, but more realistcally, it'll take a year and an offseason for us to really put this plan in motion.
I have always said, and maintained even through a hot start, that this needs to be a development year. Work out the kinks in the system, get Barnes and OG more touches and see what we really have.

[TravisScott55]

Start Birch

[YogurtProducer]

I like it, but it's time for them to start translating good production into W's.
TBH I think the starters/main core are doing well. Our depth players are what's seemingly holding us back right now. Really need one of Birch/Achiuwa to develop into that 5th piece, but more realistcally, it'll take a year and an offseason for us to really put this plan in motion.
I have always said, and maintained even through a hot start, that this needs to be a development year. Work out the kinks in the system, get Barnes and OG more touches and see what we really have.

This is exactly right. Anytime we do not have 4 starters on the floor things seem to absolutely fall apart.

Based on the first 5 comments, no one even read the OP but instead came with their own agenda with no basis for reality.

Dragic looked good with the starters as the PG. He should really check in for FVV early in the 1st and maybe Birch for Barnes. Run with a Dragic/GTJ/OG/Siakam/Birch lineup. One thing we cannot do is ever have Barnes/Birch out there together or Barnes/Banton as I cannot see that ending well at all.

[OhCanada1091]

I can openly admit Barnes at Center is not the answer and I was wrong about that suggestion. He is able to guard man to man, in the post, on iso's 1-5 but his pick and roll recognition, understanding of when to switch, when to help and where the open man on the opponents end will be is not at a high enough level to anchor a defense. Since he has been starting at C our defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Maybe later in the season after playing most of the teams once or twice and learning a bit more about the NBA game he will be able to do it but his defensive awareness is not where I thought it was.

Physically and athletically he can do it but right now its losing us games. Toronto should consider bringing him off the bench and Barnes and Achiuwa should not be on the floor at the same time. Birch should play all his minutes with Barnes on the floor.

Barnes has been fantastic offensively, but his defense the last few games has been very poor. Last night especially he was missing a lot of assignments, late on rotations, getting blown by. It wasn't good. Then in those final minutes, he committed about three or four crucial turnovers. It's also difficult for a rookie to be put in this position. So obviously you give him the benefit of the doubt.

It's just weird because we looked so good for most of that first quarter both offensively and defensively, then everything just fell apart. A lot of that was our bench.

It fell apart because Portland figured it out and put him in situations where he had to make tough decisions. Alot of it seems to branch off of the fact that OG, Siakam and Van Vleet already know eachothers tendencies. I noticed OG and Siakam will not switch onto the big. So if Barnes is covering Nance or Nurkic and theres a pick and roll Barnes is thinking "switch everything" because thats what he would do but these guys see Nurkic on the switch and they start fighting through the screen to stay on Lilliard you know what I mean. But if its a Lilliard Covington pick and roll they they dont mind switching at all. I think OG and Pascal are designating those tough matchups to Scottie because theyve already gone through their lumps and bruises. Another factor is foul trouble, Raps have it set in their mind that they are being screwed every night and have to be careful. Guarding Nurkic down low is a foul waiting to happen.

Barnes is also just poor at covering space off the ball. He is a really bad zone defender. His eyes are glued on the ball and he gets hypnotized by it. Players and coaches are figuring this out and hes gonna have to make adjustments or every night is gonna be like this one. Honestly the last few games have been like this. Hes getting killed off the ball and its definitely in the scouting report at this point.

[Wannabe MEP]

Start Birch

_____-_____-OG-Barnes-Siakam -- NetRtg: +6.8
_____-_____-_____-Siakam-Birch -- NetRtg: -14.5

[ConSarnit]

Sometimes this board wants me to jab a screw driver in to my brain.

The OP does a good job outlining our small ball performance. Shows we have a 100 def rating (which is excellent).

THEN we have multiple posters replying as to how we need to fix our defense?!?! Has Canada started putting lead in the water and am I unaware? Do I need to buy a Brita?

[VanWest82]

One question I have that's perhaps difficult to answer is when we start and play the majority of the game small, coupled with the fact that Nurse likes to overplay his main guys in any event, how much does the added stress of Siakam, OG, and Scottie taking turns wrestling with someone 30 lbs heavier wear on our collective conditioning at the end of halves/games or even over the course of the season?

Certainly there has been a trend over the last five years to play small more often and we've had success doing that at times. It's interesting though that most teams still start big even if they typically finish small(er).

Edit: FVV/GT/OG/SB/PS DRTG by quarter.

1st: 90.9
2nd: 125.0
3rd: 82.8
4th: 118.5

There may be something to our small line ups getting tired. Worth monitoring anyway.

[OhCanada1091]

Nurkic didn’t do anything. Portland didn’t like the matchup at all.

I have high hopes for the small lineup but these performances haven’t been great. They can do this much better.

Nance and Zeller went 10/10. The Nance/Barnes matchup won them the game at the C position.

[ConSarnit]

Nurkic didn’t do anything. Portland didn’t like the matchup at all.

I have high hopes for the small lineup but these performances haven’t been great. They can do this much better.

Nance and Zeller went 10/10. The Nance/Barnes matchup won them the game at the C position.

Care to guess how many points Nance scored while Barnes was defending him?

How about vs Birch?

Hint: the numbers are 2 (Barnes) and 7 (Birch)

[Tha Cynic]

One question I have that's perhaps difficult to answer is when we start and play the majority of the game small, coupled with the fact that Nurse likes to overplay his main guys in any event, how much does the added stress of Siakam, OG, and Scottie taking turns wrestling with someone 30 lbs heavier wear on our collective conditioning at the end of halves/games or even over the course of the season?

Certainly there has been a trend over the last five years to play small more often and we've had success doing that at times. It's interesting though that most teams still start big even if they typically finish small(er).

Edit: FVV/GT/OG/SB/PS DRTG by quarter.

1st: 90.9
2nd: 125.0
3rd: 82.8
4th: 118.5

There may be something to our small line ups getting tired. Worth monitoring anyway.

I think this is definitely a good point. While the defense has been great up to this point, you can definitely see that Barnes and OG specifically are exhausted by the 4th quarter of each game and this has lead to them getting blown by in late game situations.

Of course OG can fix some of this by not relying too much on isolations on offense, and that will probably happen now that Toronto has more offense in Siakam back.

Barnes can also get better at picking his spots where he expends huge amounts of energy running back and forth. He's definitely not someone who can maintain that pace at this point.

Other than that, this lineup looks good. It will be interesting to see how this defense holds up over time. It's a very exhausting style that they play.

[ItsDanger]

All our team huddles look like this:

[Kingsway_fan]

Start Birch

he's not very good...

[Johnny Bball]

We are playing at an alarmingly slow pace. Which has to mean too much half court and not enough transition.And/or young and/or inexperienced players taking their time to determine how to run a play or where to attack. Every shot later in the clokc is a worse shot, and that seems to be us all over the place right now.

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

If you're going to play smallball the advantage is running the other C off his feet or outrunning him all around. That isn't happening yet.

Maybe just start leaking out and maybe just start **** PNRing the other C to death.

[traps#10]

I don’t like Barnes playing at the 5 because I don’t want to be worn down, battled up and bruised against a heavier C

[OakleyDokely]

With 7-15 seconds left on the shot clock, the Raps have the 11th best offensive rating in the league. With 4-7 seconds left on the shot clock, the Raps have the 6th best offensive rating in the league. But when there are under 4 seconds left, the Raps have the 21st best offensive rating.