Oddsmaker places Gobert to Toronto at 50-50

[bobbyp3588]

I'm on the fence with Rudy. It would obviously depend on what's going out (and I'm slowly coming around to letting OG go). Gotta have some picks swaps coming our way.

Curious, what were the betting odds for Kawhi way back when. If there's one thing you learn, the gambling folks know more than you think.

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I’m also on the fence as I’m not convinced Rudy is right for the Raps.

More to your point though…. Vegas odds are no joke. That’s serious business, and they don’t f around where money is concerned. I remember when we traded for Kawhi all everyone was talking about was the fact that OddShark had us as the favourite to land him. The naysayers were out in full force calling bs, but I went to bed that night thinking we’d land him and the trade went down the next day. If Vegas odds peg something as likely, it’s likely.

Don’t think I’ll ultimately be happy when it goes down, but I’m starting to expect Rudy to be a Raptor. In Masai I trust, so if it does happen probably for the best. Maybe?

[kj_]

Masai getting hosed if he trades OG + Trent..

I’d rather have both OG +Trent over Gobert especially in the playoffs

Vs Philly (Embiid) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Boston (Williams) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Cavs (Allen) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Heat (bam) Gobert is on the floor.

Bucks could go small with Giannis and get him off the floor.

Nets could go small and get him off the floor.

I think the Gobert can’t play in the Playoffs is not really a thing.


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[ruckus]

No to Gobert. No-bert. Why trade for Patient Zero who as he gets older becomes a situational match up? Utah had difficulties playing him down the stretch of close games. I don't see that changing in Toronto. Hartenstein at a much smaller contract is a way better compromise and doesn't result in us moving 2 rotation guys. His impact is nowhere near as much as No-bert but it also doesn't have the potential to turn into an albatross contract.

[ruckus]

Masai getting hosed if he trades OG + Trent..

I’d rather have both OG +Trent over Gobert especially in the playoffs

Vs Philly (Embiid) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Boston (Williams) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Cavs (Allen) Gobert is on the floor.

Vs Heat (bam) Gobert is on the floor.

Bucks could go small with Giannis and get him off the floor.

Nets could go small and get him off the floor.

I think the Gobert can’t play in the Playoffs is not really a thing.


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Of those 4 guys, really only Embiid takes advantage of his size. You can get away with a small C against the other 3.

[tecumseh18]

Should be fun watching Gobert get run off the floor when teams go small and play spread PnR.

I know this is a favourite line of the casual basketball fan, but this isn't really true, I'm sure someone way smarter than both of us has written in length about this false narrative.

Even so, the biggest competition in the East is Giannis and Embiid, if those teams take their guys off the court to go small, I dunno, kinda seems like a win for the Raptors.

I'm not saying they should trade for Gobert, I think they should not, but such lazy narratives are disappointing.

The issue isn't whether opposing teams go "small". The issue is whether the opposing C can shoot 3s. In the last game before the lockdown - ironically caused by Gobert's stupidity - the Raps without Marc, Fred and Norm crushed the Jazz in Utah, mainly because Serge got hot and hit about 5 or 6 threes in Rudy's face. It forced Gobert out to defend the arc, rendering him useless as a rim protector. OG was defending Gobert pretty hard on the other end, and they got into it with each other at the end. So it's hard to imagine the Raptors trading those two for each other.

If this thing has legs, it's only for one reason - Raps want to start Precious as a PF, and move Pascal to the 3 and Scottie to the 2. If that's the way Masai sees it, then we can't really question it. They must have a LOT of faith in Scottie developing as an outside shooter.

[Clutch0z24]

The doom and Gloom in here when most likely the trade happens and Gobert is a Raptor....There is a high chance guys just prepare yourselves

[OakleyDokely]

My prediction is Gobert to the Hornets in a package for Hayward, PJ Washington and 1st.

[tecumseh18]

The doom and Gloom in here when most likely the trade happens and Gobert is a Raptor....There is a high chance guys just prepare yourselves

There's also a chance this is just posturing, to get another team they're dealing with (Suns? edit - more likely Portland) to capitulate and take the Raps' offer.

Or so I hope.

[ontnut]

I'm on the fence with Rudy. It would obviously depend on what's going out (and I'm slowly coming around to letting OG go). Gotta have some picks swaps coming our way.

Curious, what were the betting odds for Kawhi way back when. If there's one thing you learn, the gambling folks know more than you think.

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I’m also on the fence as I’m not convinced Rudy is right for the Raps.

More to your point though…. Vegas odds are no joke. That’s serious business, and they don’t f around where money is concerned. I remember when we traded for Kawhi all everyone was talking about was the fact that OddShark had us as the favourite to land him. The naysayers were out in full force calling bs, but I went to bed that night thinking we’d land him and the trade went down the next day. If Vegas odds peg something as likely, it’s likely.

Don’t think I’ll ultimately be happy when it goes down, but I’m starting to expect Rudy to be a Raptor. In Masai I trust, so if it does happen probably for the best. Maybe?

FWIW:
Bodog odds for where OG plays next season:
Toronto Raptors-800
Portland Trail Blazers+750
Utah Jazz+1000
Minnesota Timberwolves+1200
Phoenix Suns+1200
Orlando Magic+5000

DeAndre Ayton Next Franchise:
Detroit Pistons+225
Indiana Pacers+275
Phoenix Suns+300
San Antonio Spurs+650
Charlotte Hornets+800
Portland Trail Blazers+1000
Oklahoma City Thunder+1400
Houston Rockets+1800
Orlando Magic+1800
Chicago Bulls+3300
Golden State Warriors+5000
New York Knicks+5000
Brooklyn Nets+8000
Los Angeles Lakers+8000

Donovan Mitchell:
Utah Jazz-600
Miami Heat+300
New York Knicks+1000
Cleveland Cavaliers+1800
Charlotte Hornets+2000
Atlanta Hawks+2500

They didn't have odds for Gobert.
OG apparently more likely to return to Toronto than Mitchell is to Jazz.

Recently sportsbooks had Leonard to RETURN to Toronto open somewhere around the -105 area, but it moved into the -225 area at some points. Which is pretty heavily favoured. Clippers were almost always the second best odds, something like +150, +200 or so. Vegas missed on that one.

For the Kawhi to Toronto trade:

April 25 2018, Toronto wasn't even on the sportsbook radar for where Kawhi would end up.
San Antonio Spurs -170
Philadelphia 76ers +400
Los Angeles Clippers +700
Los Angeles Lakers +700
Boston Celtics +1100
Cleveland Cavaliers +1200
New York Knicks +1400
Charlotte Hornets +1500
Milwaukee Bucks +1500
At that time you could've taken a FIELD bet for every other team not listed, at 50-1. Damn.

On July 11, 2018 the odds looked like this:
Spurs +200
Raptors +200
Lakers +500
Clippers +600
76ers +800
Celtics +800
Bucks +1000
Knicks +1500
Cavaliers +2000
Rockets +2000
Nets +2500
Field +500

By July 13 2018 just 2 days later, Toronto moved to +100 (even money) with Spurs second at +400.

So odds can change drastically, as news comes out.

All this to say, the odds may be 50/50 now based on the public sentiment/rumours that a) Jazz want to trade Gobert, b) Toronto could use a C, c) OG is rumoured to be unhappy, but those things could quickly change, or an actual suitor could emerge.

Don't wanna open a new account, but if I was presented the odds of 50/50 Toronto vs the Field for Gobert to land, there's only one smart bet. 29 other teams vs 1? lol.

[Johnny Bball]

Try the last 27.

Gasol/Ibaka
Davis
Giannis

Last three championships. Last two MVPs. Elite centres or those 6'11 or over who score everything in the paint.

Raptors RealGM on Centre's part 3:
I. Hate. Tall. Guys. Cause. I. Ain't. One.

Multi-dimensional, skilled players, regardless of size will always have a place in the NBA. The guys being weeded out are the guys who don't shoot well, or aren't very versatile defensively. That doesn't describe the players you listed above.

A straw man (sometimes written as strawman) is a form of argument and an informal fallacy of having the impression of refuting an argument, whereas the real subject of the argument was not addressed (the argument that RealGM has a bias against Centres) or refuted, but instead replaced with a false one (Multi-dimensional, skilled players, regardless of size will always have a place in the NBA).

I think there is ample evidence on this forum to suggest that RealGMers hate those who those who play the centre position - including all those against the Gasol trade.

Yeah you have NOT been keeping up. Getting rid of JV was essential. Gasol was a stop gap. Now it is time to find a small ball centre for real or to play 5 out SF/PF. If you mean do I have a bias against large slow footed old school centres? Because they are a liability when pursuing a championship in the playoffs? Their pay reflects that, Drummond, Whiteside, etc. This isn't a bias, it's reality. The centre position has changed and putting a max salary player at that position or building around that position has not worked.

This isn't a strawman he's making, its the entire point.

And old school centres are not coming back into play because their extinction is a result of rule changes 18 years ago. Until rules change, that is not happening. The post up is an inefficient play type and playing inside out will not be successful and hasn't been for some time. It's literally why the phrase pace and space has been so repeated for 10 years.

[goinrogue]

With the focus this team has on defence I was always really surprised when people here didn’t think that we would be interested in trading for him.

[Madhouse]

Should be fun watching Gobert get run off the floor when teams go small and play spread PnR.

I know this is a favourite line of the casual basketball fan, but this isn't really true, I'm sure someone way smarter than both of us has written in length about this false narrative.

Even so, the biggest competition in the East is Giannis and Embiid, if those teams take their guys off the court to go small, I dunno, kinda seems like a win for the Raptors.

I'm not saying they should trade for Gobert, I think they should not, but such lazy narratives are disappointing.

The issue isn't whether opposing teams go "small". The issue is whether the opposing C can shoot 3s. In the last game before the lockdown - ironically caused by Gobert's stupidity - the Raps without Marc, Fred and Norm crushed the Jazz in Utah, mainly because Serge got hot and hit about 5 or 6 threes in Rudy's face. It forced Gobert out to defend the arc, rendering him useless as a rim protector. OG was defending Gobert pretty hard on the other end, and they got into it with each other at the end. So it's hard to imagine the Raptors trading those two for each other.

If this thing has legs, it's only for one reason - Raps want to start Precious as a PF, and move Pascal to the 3 and Scottie to the 2. If that's the way Masai sees it, then we can't really question it. They must have a LOT of faith in Scottie developing as an outside shooter.

That would be crazy but at the same time I believe Precious with a bigger guy next to him at C has by far the greatest defensive potential for the Raptors. I think number 1 defense potential.

I think that is Masai's vision.

Number 1 defense and then we see on offense. Defense leads to offense.

The Warriors are with the number 17 offense 1 win away from the championship.

The shooting and shotmaking would be very, very questionable but at the same time the last 8 number 1 defenses have won 56, 67, 67, 61, 48, 50, 56 (73 games) and 42 (72 games) games.

So how far can you really fall?

How good could a team be with elite rebounding, number 1 defense, elite transition offense but a very questionable half court offense? It would be hustle, hustle, hustle.

I still don't see it happening but I wrote this in another thread before, I think we are more interested in Gobert than people want us to be.

[Tripod]

Should be fun watching Gobert get run off the floor when teams go small and play spread PnR.

I know this is a favourite line of the casual basketball fan, but this isn't really true, I'm sure someone way smarter than both of us has written in length about this false narrative.

Even so, the biggest competition in the East is Giannis and Embiid, if those teams take their guys off the court to go small, I dunno, kinda seems like a win for the Raptors.

I'm not saying they should trade for Gobert, I think they should not, but such lazy narratives are disappointing.

The issue isn't whether opposing teams go "small". The issue is whether the opposing C can shoot 3s. In the last game before the lockdown - ironically caused by Gobert's stupidity - the Raps without Marc, Fred and Norm crushed the Jazz in Utah, mainly because Serge got hot and hit about 5 or 6 threes in Rudy's face. It forced Gobert out to defend the arc, rendering him useless as a rim protector. OG was defending Gobert pretty hard on the other end, and they got into it with each other at the end. So it's hard to imagine the Raptors trading those two for each other.

If this thing has legs, it's only for one reason - Raps want to start Precious as a PF, and move Pascal to the 3 and Scottie to the 2. If that's the way Masai sees it, then we can't really question it. They must have a LOT of faith in Scottie developing as an outside shooter.

Or maybe it's Scotty at the PG with Fred as the SG.

I will say, watching Utah there was plenty of times Rudy should have gotten a pass to him when he would have s mismatch and Mitchell just looked him off. Having a guy like Scotty who willingly looks to feed others could lead to lots more easy baskets.

[Madhouse]

With the focus this team has on defence I was always really surprised when people here didn’t think that we would be interested in trading for him.

In that sense, it would be logical. Utah had top defenses with very questionable perimeter defenses.

[BHF]

I am all in for getting Gobert or Ayton as long as that means shipping out Fred or Trent, as for OG id only trade him if he really wants out and i would trade him in a separate deal.

[Madhouse]

I am all in for getting Gobert or Ayton as long as that means shipping out Fred or Trent, as for OG id only trade him if he really wants out and i would trade him in a separate deal.

The main issue with Gobert is that it almost certainly requires giving away Trent AND OG.

[OakleyDokely]

I am all in for getting Gobert or Ayton as long as that means shipping out Fred or Trent, as for OG id only trade him if he really wants out and i would trade him in a separate deal.

The main issue with Gobert is that it almost certainly requires giving away Trent AND OG.

I think I'd be the 2nd best shooter on the team if this happened.

[LastNameEver]

The other point nobody is talking about is that you'd have to deal with Danny Ainge. He reportedly wanted Collins, Hunter and 1st from the Hawks for Gobert.

Good luck dealing with him.

Dude is always dealing from a hostile position

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I am all in for getting Gobert or Ayton as long as that means shipping out Fred or Trent, as for OG id only trade him if he really wants out and i would trade him in a separate deal.

The main issue with Gobert is that it almost certainly requires giving away Trent AND OG.

I think I'd be the 2nd best shooter on the team if this happened.

giving yourself too much credit.

you'd be the third best shooter.

[OakleyDokely]

The main issue with Gobert is that it almost certainly requires giving away Trent AND OG.

I think I'd be the 2nd best shooter on the team if this happened.

giving yourself too much credit.

you'd be the third best shooter.

I'm Matt Thomas with less hops