A look to the past likely shows a glimpse of the future (depth)

[ArthurVandelay]

There have been a few threads lately that had me thinking about the current Raptor situation and the history of franchise back to ‘95. I hate to say it because I really haven’t been enjoying games most of this season, but things aren’t all that bad in the big picture of the Raptors franchise existence. The HEAT game was a great example of what could/should be. That doesn’t necessarily provide people with much comfort given the majority of this franchise’s existence has been a dumpster fire, but I believe it is accurate.

Would anyone trade the current team and leadership for for the Babcock or Colangelo eras?

Looking back through Basketball-Reference at Raptors rosters over the years, I see a similarity with the 2012-2014 years, essentially the very end of the Colangelo era and the start of Masai’s tenure as the head decision maker.

The 2012-2013 season ended with fools gold optimism as a team led by DeRozan and Gay finished winning 8 of 11 and 7 of 8 with an overall 34-48 record. This was the ultimate my-turn, your-turn basketball for 2 guys who only wanted to play mid-range. Bargnani didn’t play past March 9th. Colangelo was then demoted for the failure of the accelerated-rebuild and Masai was hired at the end of May 2013.

Masai’s first move was to fleece New York with Bargnani for essentially Steve Novak, a 2016 first (Poeltl) and a second.

With the Bargnani albatross gone, the Raptors started 2013-14 poorly. Gay banned stat sheets and then Masai banned Gay in early December. This article is a nice trip down memory lane: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1881183-rudy-gay-trade-winners-and-losers-of-kings-raptors-deal.amp.html

Lowry almost became a Knick but Dolan reneged last minute in absolute fear of a Masai hat trick after the Melo and Bargnani trades.

And then something magical happened…with the additions of Vasquez, Salmons, Hayes, and Patterson to the Lowry, DD, JV, Ross, & Amir core, the Raptors clicked and went on to win 48 games. The Raptors had addition simply by subtracting Gay and restoring score sheets to the locker room.

After catching lightning in a bottle, the only (meaningful) move for 2014-2015 was Salmons for Lou Williams and Bebe.

Then the only meaningful moves for 2015-2016 was trading Vasquez for picks that would be Norm & OG (top 3 trade in Raptor history with Bargnani and Kawhi) and signing Carroll (ultimately a terrible move that cost a 2018 pick to remove).

There wouldn’t be another trade for 1.5 seasons until February 2017 when Ross and a first were sent out for Ibaka.

By 2017, the Raptors had a deep squad with all-stars (Lowry & DD), solid role players (JV & Ibaka), and productive rookie contracts (OG, Norm, Pascal, FVV, Delon, Poeltl). They had one last kick at the can and underwhelmed again in the playoffs with a second round sweep by Lebron.

After the Lebronto embarrassment, the rest is history: Casey out/Nurse in, DeRozan out/Kawhi in, and one final trade mid season for Gasol to win it all.


In my opinion, the key to all of this was depth. The depth from the Gay trade onwards allowed the Raptors to compete and have strong regular seasons with some post season runs & flame outs, sometimes in the same postseason! Ultimately it was depth that brought in the pieces needed to win a championship and, without COVID, who knows what would have happened the following year.

That brings us to 2023 and the current squad: they have little to no depth when looking at players and their skills.

They have nice pieces but they can’t trade any of them without creating holes elsewhere, hence the roster lacks depth. The team is, by my estimation, about 6 deep on any given night. You could make an argument they are 8 deep if, and it’s a big if, everyone is healthy and playing to the best of their ability - but those two things rarely happen with starting lineup of FVV/OG/Scottie/Pascal/Poeltl with Boucher, Trent Jr, and Precious being your main guys off the bench. We drop to 5 deep, 7 at max, for the first 2/3s of the season before the Poeltl trade. Because of this lack of roster depth, trading for a superstar (like the Kawhi trade or going all in for KD, as a recent example) is premature.

The players skill set also lacks depth. They have too many guys with similar skills. The 6’9 vision isn’t a failure because they all have similar dimensions. The 6’9 vision hasn’t succeeded because they don’t have enough guys who can shoot the 3 to create space and they don’t have enough guys who can create their own shot, with the latter likely impacting the former.

The drafting of Koloko and trade for Poeltl also showed a recognition of the need for a shot-blocking presence, the ability to run a drop coverage defense, and the struggles against skilled bigs like Embiid. As an aside, imo, the vision 6’9 is a great strategy during stretches of a game but it can’t be the whole game and it never made sense with a small starting backcourt.

So identifying the problem is easy, but what is the solution to a lack of depth?

When looking at Masai’s trade record (https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/nba/news/masai-ujiri-complete-nba-draft-trade-history-raptors/ztucupkdc1iayfdvoszg7bwo ), one thing that I notice is he turns single, sometimes negative assets into multiple productive assets. The Gay trade trade yielded 4 players who could contribute, then Vasquez became Norm (now Trent) and OG, Salmons became Bebe and Lou - it was the trade that kept on giving.

Another thing that stands out is the importance of hitting on late first round draft picks, second round picks, or finding an undrafted player who can contribute. Masai did that with Delon, Siakam, Norm, OG, and FVV. You don’t need to nail every pick but finding a good undrafted player every few years and hitting on a couple late picks every few years makes a huge difference to a team depth and ultimate success.

So what are the Raptors options for adding depth then? You can make the argument trading the 2022 first to move back 12 spots and acquire Thad was already one attempt at adding depth.

Trading OG or Siakam seems logical but then how do you replace them? If you’re trading them for picks, that is a gamble to say the least. You’d be thrilled if anything you drafted turned into either of them, but that would likely take years to develop. This explains why the word from all the trade rumours around Toronto was they valued proven, young, controllable rookie contract players ahead of picks. They wanted players who already showed they could play in the NBA. Assuming this is true, there is no question Masai recognizes the lack of depth on the roster.

Does trading Siakam for Simons, Sharpe, and a 1st make the Raptors better now or in the future? It’s questionable at best. Right now Siakam is the best player in that trade and what happens when/if Simons D doesn’t improve or Sharpe doesn’t grow his game beyond highlight dunks?

Likewise say a Pacers trade of OG for Nembhard, Jackson, and 2 late first round picks and an early second, that adds a lot of youth but what if they get a bunch of Brunos, Daniels, Johnsons, and Hernadezes in return? It should also allow you to resign Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr without future tax fears with a rising cap and new TV deal. While the trade adds serviceable bench depth, there is no question OG is the best player in the deal and incredibly tough to replace.

What about the UFAs in Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr? Losing any of them for nothing would be very painful for a team already short on depth. Say what you want about any of them, they are all legit NBA players who could contribute on any NBA team. I think it is as close to a given as possible that Poeltl stays.

All three of the Raptors core free agents are going to make more than the MLE which means the only real threats to losing those players for nothing comes from teams with cap space.

There are 12 teams with projected practical cap space over $20m for next season (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/ ). But of those 12 teams, there are some that would have to not pick up options of players with value, renounce free agent bird rights, and forego MLE or bi-annual exception. Those realities likely remove Dallas, Portland, Orlando, Lakers, Sacramento, and Charlotte. So that leaves 6 teams with likely cap space. Of those teams with cap space (Houston, San Antonio, Utah, Detroit, OKC, Indiana), I struggle to see either of them paying $20m for Poeltl (although resigning with San Antonio would be the ultimate screw job).

When it comes to Gary Trent Jr there is a risk he could leave if the rumours around Utah & Ainge interest are to be believed, or was Utah working to get him to the Klutch-friendly Lakers and secure the 2029 Lakers 1st? Other than Utah, there doesn’t seem to be much risk from the other teams. GTJr might also be expecting more than the market is offering. When looking at Poole, Barrett, and Herro, there is already a belief among some those contracts are too much, and Gary would likely come in below those 3 in perceived value.

There has been lots of smoke around FVV and Orlando. Houston has been mentioned too, and they could easily sign him outright. Orlando could sign Fred outright if they waived Isaac and Harris, but in doing so they’d give up their BAE and MLE as well as a useful player in Harris. Isaac would be very useful if he could ever get and stay healthy. His contract has value because only $7.6m is guaranteed for next year and it is unguaranteed for 2024-25.

What about sign and trades? As mentioned losing either of Poeltl, FVV, or Trent Jr would be harmful for a team lacking depth. I feel like Poeltl is a lock to stay. Gary and Fred though, not so much.

Gary has been a solid soldier, not causing any disruption coming off the bench or seeing a limited role when the team is healthy. If he started a contract around $20m over 5 years I’d have no worries about keeping him. However, I’m sure he’d like to start. What if he can get $20+ per and start elsewhere? A team I think is possible is the Lakers. A sign and trade around Beasley and the rights to their 2023 1st would be a great way to add depth and a controllable rookie contract. Beasley gives you another tradable contract as well that could be use to make a larger move or to get other future picks (think Vasquez trade 2.0). It was rumoured at the deadline Atlanta, Cleveland, NO, and Miami had interest in Beasley. However if Beasley returned to his pre-Larsa Pippen days, you might just want to keep him.

A sign and trade for FVV with Orlando could produce multiple assets in return. Any of Harris, Anthony, Houstan, or a future 2nd would be much better than nothing. Harris and Anthony both address areas of need. As mentioned Isaac is a useful contract for a future trade at worst.

There is also the possibility of trading down in the draft. Would Utah trade 18 and 27 for Raps pick? Or how about Indiana with 25, 29, and 32? Brooklyn with 21 & 22? If ever there was a time to replicate the 2016 draft it is now.

Finally what about a trade of a player under contract? Could the Vasquez magic be replicated with Boucher? Could Flynn return another forgotten rookie contract? Denver needs a backup PG and have Watson, Braun, and Cancar. I doubt Otto returns much and, if healthy, he actually addresses a Raptors need.

It was 6 years from Masai’s takeover to the championship. During that time there was all kinds of calls for tanking (Riggin for Wiggins), trading players the fan base was divided over (Bargnani, Gay, DeRozan), getting rid of players too old to meet the timeline of other players, and firing the coach (Casey). DeRozan and Lowry (forever labelled 2nd/3rd/4th options on a championship team) were resigned to large extensions. Through it all Masai stayed….wait for it….patient.

Today we have similar calls: tank! tank! tank!, trade Siakam/OG/FVV, “insert player” is too old to play with prime Scottie, fire Nurse, and don’t resign FVV for big money. But as history showed, I think Masai stays even keeled and works to accumulate assets that will provide the depth needed on a championship run and the trade chips needed to acquire championship pieces.

For fans that haven’t been around since ‘95 or who only started following in the last 4-5 years this is likely to be a very difficult time. For everyone else, hopefully you can enjoy the ride. Remember the very dark days of Babcock & Colangelo and recognize there were steps forward and painful steps back over the 6 years that ultimately led to the 2019 championship.

It will be interesting to watch what Masai does moving forward because, as I now realize looking at past seasons, the current state of the team isn’t bad at all. I think there is no question change is needed, but not as drastic as many, myself previously included, might think.

I feel very confident the 2022-2023 Raptors are closer to a championship than the 2013-2014 Raptors.

Here’s to the quest for depth. Cheers.

[DemHeavyHands]

[ArthurVandelay]

Sorry dude. Words are tough, especially when they combine for sentences and paragraphs. Lol

Here is the Coles Notes version for you:

Masai has a knack of turning an unvalued asset into multiple assets with value. He’s relatively slow, methodical, and resists calls from the masses for quick change. This approach built the depth needed to create and field a championship team. Look for him to take the same approach moving forward. The end.

[Thaddy]

Adding bench pieces will make us a lot better. The key here is to re-sign 2 of 3 and trade the third player for someone of similar impact but less money. The easiest option is probably Trent Jr for Harris if the Magic are interested. We save around 10M that can be used to bring in a signing like DDV and sign our draft pick without falling under the cap.

This means we could have DDV, OPJ, Boucher, Achiuwa, Wallace (2023 1st), and Koloko off the bench next season. RHJr and Banton should also be productive by next season. That gives us 8 possible rotation pieces off the bench, if even half of them work out we would have very good depth.

Give us OPJ this season and we're probably a lot better. The bench is so bad that it doesn't take too much to make it better. This team regressed this season but it's a part of the development process. Next season should be a 50 win season.

[ArthurVandelay]

Adding bench pieces will make us a lot better. The key here is to re-sign 2 of 3 and trade the third player for someone of similar impact but less money. The easiest option is probably Trent Jr for Harris if the Magic are interested. We save around 10M that can be used to bring in a signing like DDV and sign our draft pick without falling under the cap.

This means we could have DDV, OPJ, Boucher, Achiuwa, Wallace (2023 1st), and Koloko off the bench next season. RHJr and Banton should also be productive by next season. That gives us 8 possible rotation pieces off the bench, if even half of them work out we would have very good depth.

Give us OPJ this season and we're probably a lot better. The bench is so bad that it doesn't take too much to make it better. This team regressed this season but it's a part of the development process. Next season should be a 50 win season.

I agree with that.

I’d add that the developing pieces and future picks over time then get combined to return a more impactful player (Ibaka, PJ Tucker, Kawhi, Gasol).

I’m taking Masai at his word that the goal is championships. So a 50-win season next year is great progress but still not going to lead to a championship without much more depth via the draft and trade over few years.

[DG88]

Yes we need depth, something that many have been saying this whole season. We don't have any and whether that's through trade or adding talent through the draft it has to be a priority this offseason.

[Zeno]

I actually read the vast majority of that which shows how much I got going on. I’m not completely sure the take home message it all is except that Masai needs to go on a serious run of great moves again.

[ArthurVandelay]

I actually read the vast majority of that which shows how much I got going on. I’m not completely sure the take home message it all is except that Masai needs to go on a serious run of great moves again.

I guess a “serious run of great moves” is relative.

Masai made 6 trades over 6 years that built the championship team. There were other cap tweaking/fixing trades along the way that were pretty insignificant, the Tucker trade that was a swing and a miss before Kawhi, and the Carroll dump.

In terms of drafting for a championship, he had no picks in 2013, botched 2014, hit 2015 and 2016, and had no picks in 2017 and 2018.

His key to building towards success was not having bad contracts or wasted roster spots.

[ArthurVandelay]

Yes we need depth, something that many have been saying this whole season. We don't have any and whether that's through trade or adding talent through the draft it has to be a priority this offseason.

Some have said that. Others have desired a full on tank and sell-off. But the commonality seems to be everyone wants results now and a championship next year. It just rarely works that way - Duncan and SAS are only team I can think of that did it quick. It was Curry’s 6th season before Golden State won, 7 for Jordan.

I know my post was a long (er, very, very long) one however 6 years to build a championship is a long wait when most people can’t make it 10 seconds into a TikTok. That’s the point here.

Building a team with championship talent and depth takes time and is usually a long journey. It’s not just this off-season where depth needs to be the focus.

[Zeno]

I actually read the vast majority of that which shows how much I got going on. I’m not completely sure the take home message it all is except that Masai needs to go on a serious run of great moves again.

I guess a “serious run of great moves” is relative.

Masai made 6 trades over 6 years that built the championship team. There were other cap tweaking/fixing trades along the way that were pretty insignificant, the Tucker trade that was a swing and a miss before Kawhi, and the Carroll dump.

In terms of drafting for a championship, he had no picks in 2013, botched 2014, hit 2015 and 2016, and had no picks in 2017 and 2018.

His key to building towards success was not having bad contracts or wasted roster spots.

2015 and 2016 drafts were crazy. Bargs trade, Vasquez trade, no he didn’t hit 100 percent but it was pretty crazy. Tucker trade, even Ibaka trade at the time it was made we’re trying to give them a chance type trades. Thad was kind of a little like the Tucker trade. Poeltl is maybe similar to the Ibaka trade. But the depth that came from the 2015 and 2016 draft doesn’t look to be on the way.

[Johnny Bball]

Sorry but I stop reading every time I read "too many guys with similar skills". Parrotting that myth just needs to end. Was a nice summary up until that.

[ArthurVandelay]

Sorry but I stop reading every time I read "too many guys with similar skills". Parrotting that myth just needs to end. Was a nice summary up until that.

Not sure how you can disagree. Maybe I should have worded it differently. The similar skills isn’t the issue, it’s the similar skills they lack.

The 6’9 vision isn’t a failure because they all have similar dimensions. The 6’9 vision hasn’t succeeded because they don’t have enough guys who can shoot the 3 to create space and they don’t have enough guys who can create their own shot, with the latter likely impacting the former.

Masai made it very clear after trade deadline shooting was going to be a priority moving forward.

[WaltFrazier]

Sorry but I stop reading every time I read "too many guys with similar skills". Parrotting that myth just needs to end. Was a nice summary up until that.

I agree in that I want to keep our supposedly too similar guys Pascal Scottie and OG. But the flip side of similar skills is the main skill we lack - 3 point shooting.

The whole long op can be reduced to, we need bench pieces/depth guys who can shoot.

[Chandan]

the key wasnt depth. the key was having a MVP tier player falling onto our laps.

[WaltFrazier]

the key wasnt depth. the key was having a MVP tier player falling onto our laps.

Depth allowed us to seize the opportunity, get Kawhi and still have enough talent to be a contender with Kawhi. Right now we aren't deep enough to make a similar trade, we'd be too depleted. Like how if we'd got KD last summer we wouldn't have had enough to compete even with KD

[ArthurVandelay]

Sorry but I stop reading every time I read "too many guys with similar skills". Parrotting that myth just needs to end. Was a nice summary up until that.

I agree in that I want to keep our supposedly too similar guys Pascal Scottie and OG. But the flip side of similar skills is the main skill we lack - 3 point shooting.

The whole long op can be reduced to, we need bench pieces/depth guys who can shoot.

To be clear, I was all for vision 6’9, and still am, but have come to recognize you can’t be a one trick pony. I think the team agrees hence the Koloko pick and Poeltl trade.

The whole 6’9 premise was always about the defensive side of the ball. But on offense they have to be complete and/or complimentary players. That isn’t present with the current roster and Nurse’s claims to be able to teach shooting and develop shooters hasn’t played out…yet??

This team desperately needs shooting.

[ArthurVandelay]

the key wasnt depth. the key was having a MVP tier player falling onto our laps.

And they only got him because they had the assets to trade for him while keeping enough to make a subsequent trade for Gasol and still have a deep roster.

[WaltFrazier]

Sorry but I stop reading every time I read "too many guys with similar skills". Parrotting that myth just needs to end. Was a nice summary up until that.

I agree in that I want to keep our supposedly too similar guys Pascal Scottie and OG. But the flip side of similar skills is the main skill we lack - 3 point shooting.

The whole long op can be reduced to, we need bench pieces/depth guys who can shoot.

To be clear, I was all for vision 6’9, and still am, but have come to recognize you can’t be a one trick pony. I think the team agrees hence the Koloko pick and Poeltl trade.

The whole 6’9 premise was always about the defensive side of the ball. But on offense they have to be complete and/or complimentary players. That isn’t present with the current roster and Nurse’s claims to be able to teach shooting and develop shooters hasn’t played out…yet??

This team desperately needs shooting.

The defense that vision 6'9 was supposed to bring, has not materialized this year. OG is great of course but Pascal has slipped, Barnes also gives up blow-bys. Boucher can fly around but isn't great guarding man to man. Precious is very good. The 6'9 concept falls apart when some can't guard perimeter. And also it took getting a real center to solidify our rim protection, because it was too wearing on the 6'9 guys to wrestle with big centers. Pascal alluded to this the other day. It's why we also need Koloko to be ready to backup Jak next year so we always have a true big C on the court.

[HiJiNX]

OP is right.

[Merit]

Thanks for taking the time to write this.

I do think that the Raps have a few options available to them this off-season to improve their depth. I think you've provided a few that would make a world of sense. I for one am a fan of reclamation projects, and I wonder how our medical department could fair with Jonathan Isaac.

A few ideas come to mind:

Fred/Thad/Flynn for Harris/Isaac/Suggs.

Thad/Flynn/OPJ/2nd for Isaac/Houstan

I happen to value Fred far more than most, but I'd say that deal vastly improves our depth and gets rid of bottom of the roster players that we just don't care for. The challenge I see is that we wouldn't have a PG. That said, if there's one in the draft that makes sense, or say Donte DiVincenzo or someone like that we plan to sign with the MLE, that would work too.

Raps new Roster after the 1st trade:

Suggs/Harris/Dowtin
OG/Trent/Banton
Scottie/Isaac
Pascal/Precious
Poeltl/Boucher/Koloko

+ 2023 1st.

Raps new Roster after the 2nd trade:

FVV/(MLE - Donte DiVincenzo)/Dowtin
OG/Trent/Banton
Scottie/Isaac/Houston
Pascal/Precious/Harper Jr.
Poeltl/Boucher/Koloko

+ 2023 1st

3 full hockey lines worth of depth. I like the second trade better, but who knows what might happen?

Your general point stands. The raps need more depth, especially guard depth. They are positioned well to make changes in the offseason and historical precedent suggests that they will go in that direction.