A look to the past likely shows a glimpse of the future (depth)
Posted: Wed Mar 29, 2023 10:41 pm
There have been a few threads lately that had me thinking about the current Raptor situation and the history of franchise back to ‘95. I hate to say it because I really haven’t been enjoying games most of this season, but things aren’t all that bad in the big picture of the Raptors franchise existence. The HEAT game was a great example of what could/should be. That doesn’t necessarily provide people with much comfort given the majority of this franchise’s existence has been a dumpster fire, but I believe it is accurate.
Would anyone trade the current team and leadership for for the Babcock or Colangelo eras?
Looking back through Basketball-Reference at Raptors rosters over the years, I see a similarity with the 2012-2014 years, essentially the very end of the Colangelo era and the start of Masai’s tenure as the head decision maker.
The 2012-2013 season ended with fools gold optimism as a team led by DeRozan and Gay finished winning 8 of 11 and 7 of 8 with an overall 34-48 record. This was the ultimate my-turn, your-turn basketball for 2 guys who only wanted to play mid-range. Bargnani didn’t play past March 9th. Colangelo was then demoted for the failure of the accelerated-rebuild and Masai was hired at the end of May 2013.
Masai’s first move was to fleece New York with Bargnani for essentially Steve Novak, a 2016 first (Poeltl) and a second.
With the Bargnani albatross gone, the Raptors started 2013-14 poorly. Gay banned stat sheets and then Masai banned Gay in early December. This article is a nice trip down memory lane: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1881183-rudy-gay-trade-winners-and-losers-of-kings-raptors-deal.amp.html
Lowry almost became a Knick but Dolan reneged last minute in absolute fear of a Masai hat trick after the Melo and Bargnani trades.
And then something magical happened…with the additions of Vasquez, Salmons, Hayes, and Patterson to the Lowry, DD, JV, Ross, & Amir core, the Raptors clicked and went on to win 48 games. The Raptors had addition simply by subtracting Gay and restoring score sheets to the locker room.
After catching lightning in a bottle, the only (meaningful) move for 2014-2015 was Salmons for Lou Williams and Bebe.
Then the only meaningful moves for 2015-2016 was trading Vasquez for picks that would be Norm & OG (top 3 trade in Raptor history with Bargnani and Kawhi) and signing Carroll (ultimately a terrible move that cost a 2018 pick to remove).
There wouldn’t be another trade for 1.5 seasons until February 2017 when Ross and a first were sent out for Ibaka.
By 2017, the Raptors had a deep squad with all-stars (Lowry & DD), solid role players (JV & Ibaka), and productive rookie contracts (OG, Norm, Pascal, FVV, Delon, Poeltl). They had one last kick at the can and underwhelmed again in the playoffs with a second round sweep by Lebron.
After the Lebronto embarrassment, the rest is history: Casey out/Nurse in, DeRozan out/Kawhi in, and one final trade mid season for Gasol to win it all.
In my opinion, the key to all of this was depth. The depth from the Gay trade onwards allowed the Raptors to compete and have strong regular seasons with some post season runs & flame outs, sometimes in the same postseason! Ultimately it was depth that brought in the pieces needed to win a championship and, without COVID, who knows what would have happened the following year.
That brings us to 2023 and the current squad: they have little to no depth when looking at players and their skills.
They have nice pieces but they can’t trade any of them without creating holes elsewhere, hence the roster lacks depth. The team is, by my estimation, about 6 deep on any given night. You could make an argument they are 8 deep if, and it’s a big if, everyone is healthy and playing to the best of their ability - but those two things rarely happen with starting lineup of FVV/OG/Scottie/Pascal/Poeltl with Boucher, Trent Jr, and Precious being your main guys off the bench. We drop to 5 deep, 7 at max, for the first 2/3s of the season before the Poeltl trade. Because of this lack of roster depth, trading for a superstar (like the Kawhi trade or going all in for KD, as a recent example) is premature.
The players skill set also lacks depth. They have too many guys with similar skills. The 6’9 vision isn’t a failure because they all have similar dimensions. The 6’9 vision hasn’t succeeded because they don’t have enough guys who can shoot the 3 to create space and they don’t have enough guys who can create their own shot, with the latter likely impacting the former.
The drafting of Koloko and trade for Poeltl also showed a recognition of the need for a shot-blocking presence, the ability to run a drop coverage defense, and the struggles against skilled bigs like Embiid. As an aside, imo, the vision 6’9 is a great strategy during stretches of a game but it can’t be the whole game and it never made sense with a small starting backcourt.
So identifying the problem is easy, but what is the solution to a lack of depth?
When looking at Masai’s trade record (https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/nba/news/masai-ujiri-complete-nba-draft-trade-history-raptors/ztucupkdc1iayfdvoszg7bwo ), one thing that I notice is he turns single, sometimes negative assets into multiple productive assets. The Gay trade trade yielded 4 players who could contribute, then Vasquez became Norm (now Trent) and OG, Salmons became Bebe and Lou - it was the trade that kept on giving.
Another thing that stands out is the importance of hitting on late first round draft picks, second round picks, or finding an undrafted player who can contribute. Masai did that with Delon, Siakam, Norm, OG, and FVV. You don’t need to nail every pick but finding a good undrafted player every few years and hitting on a couple late picks every few years makes a huge difference to a team depth and ultimate success.
So what are the Raptors options for adding depth then? You can make the argument trading the 2022 first to move back 12 spots and acquire Thad was already one attempt at adding depth.
Trading OG or Siakam seems logical but then how do you replace them? If you’re trading them for picks, that is a gamble to say the least. You’d be thrilled if anything you drafted turned into either of them, but that would likely take years to develop. This explains why the word from all the trade rumours around Toronto was they valued proven, young, controllable rookie contract players ahead of picks. They wanted players who already showed they could play in the NBA. Assuming this is true, there is no question Masai recognizes the lack of depth on the roster.
Does trading Siakam for Simons, Sharpe, and a 1st make the Raptors better now or in the future? It’s questionable at best. Right now Siakam is the best player in that trade and what happens when/if Simons D doesn’t improve or Sharpe doesn’t grow his game beyond highlight dunks?
Likewise say a Pacers trade of OG for Nembhard, Jackson, and 2 late first round picks and an early second, that adds a lot of youth but what if they get a bunch of Brunos, Daniels, Johnsons, and Hernadezes in return? It should also allow you to resign Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr without future tax fears with a rising cap and new TV deal. While the trade adds serviceable bench depth, there is no question OG is the best player in the deal and incredibly tough to replace.
What about the UFAs in Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr? Losing any of them for nothing would be very painful for a team already short on depth. Say what you want about any of them, they are all legit NBA players who could contribute on any NBA team. I think it is as close to a given as possible that Poeltl stays.
All three of the Raptors core free agents are going to make more than the MLE which means the only real threats to losing those players for nothing comes from teams with cap space.
There are 12 teams with projected practical cap space over $20m for next season (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/ ). But of those 12 teams, there are some that would have to not pick up options of players with value, renounce free agent bird rights, and forego MLE or bi-annual exception. Those realities likely remove Dallas, Portland, Orlando, Lakers, Sacramento, and Charlotte. So that leaves 6 teams with likely cap space. Of those teams with cap space (Houston, San Antonio, Utah, Detroit, OKC, Indiana), I struggle to see either of them paying $20m for Poeltl (although resigning with San Antonio would be the ultimate screw job).
When it comes to Gary Trent Jr there is a risk he could leave if the rumours around Utah & Ainge interest are to be believed, or was Utah working to get him to the Klutch-friendly Lakers and secure the 2029 Lakers 1st? Other than Utah, there doesn’t seem to be much risk from the other teams. GTJr might also be expecting more than the market is offering. When looking at Poole, Barrett, and Herro, there is already a belief among some those contracts are too much, and Gary would likely come in below those 3 in perceived value.
There has been lots of smoke around FVV and Orlando. Houston has been mentioned too, and they could easily sign him outright. Orlando could sign Fred outright if they waived Isaac and Harris, but in doing so they’d give up their BAE and MLE as well as a useful player in Harris. Isaac would be very useful if he could ever get and stay healthy. His contract has value because only $7.6m is guaranteed for next year and it is unguaranteed for 2024-25.
What about sign and trades? As mentioned losing either of Poeltl, FVV, or Trent Jr would be harmful for a team lacking depth. I feel like Poeltl is a lock to stay. Gary and Fred though, not so much.
Gary has been a solid soldier, not causing any disruption coming off the bench or seeing a limited role when the team is healthy. If he started a contract around $20m over 5 years I’d have no worries about keeping him. However, I’m sure he’d like to start. What if he can get $20+ per and start elsewhere? A team I think is possible is the Lakers. A sign and trade around Beasley and the rights to their 2023 1st would be a great way to add depth and a controllable rookie contract. Beasley gives you another tradable contract as well that could be use to make a larger move or to get other future picks (think Vasquez trade 2.0). It was rumoured at the deadline Atlanta, Cleveland, NO, and Miami had interest in Beasley. However if Beasley returned to his pre-Larsa Pippen days, you might just want to keep him.
A sign and trade for FVV with Orlando could produce multiple assets in return. Any of Harris, Anthony, Houstan, or a future 2nd would be much better than nothing. Harris and Anthony both address areas of need. As mentioned Isaac is a useful contract for a future trade at worst.
There is also the possibility of trading down in the draft. Would Utah trade 18 and 27 for Raps pick? Or how about Indiana with 25, 29, and 32? Brooklyn with 21 & 22? If ever there was a time to replicate the 2016 draft it is now.
Finally what about a trade of a player under contract? Could the Vasquez magic be replicated with Boucher? Could Flynn return another forgotten rookie contract? Denver needs a backup PG and have Watson, Braun, and Cancar. I doubt Otto returns much and, if healthy, he actually addresses a Raptors need.
It was 6 years from Masai’s takeover to the championship. During that time there was all kinds of calls for tanking (Riggin for Wiggins), trading players the fan base was divided over (Bargnani, Gay, DeRozan), getting rid of players too old to meet the timeline of other players, and firing the coach (Casey). DeRozan and Lowry (forever labelled 2nd/3rd/4th options on a championship team) were resigned to large extensions. Through it all Masai stayed….wait for it….patient.
Today we have similar calls: tank! tank! tank!, trade Siakam/OG/FVV, “insert player” is too old to play with prime Scottie, fire Nurse, and don’t resign FVV for big money. But as history showed, I think Masai stays even keeled and works to accumulate assets that will provide the depth needed on a championship run and the trade chips needed to acquire championship pieces.
For fans that haven’t been around since ‘95 or who only started following in the last 4-5 years this is likely to be a very difficult time. For everyone else, hopefully you can enjoy the ride. Remember the very dark days of Babcock & Colangelo and recognize there were steps forward and painful steps back over the 6 years that ultimately led to the 2019 championship.
It will be interesting to watch what Masai does moving forward because, as I now realize looking at past seasons, the current state of the team isn’t bad at all. I think there is no question change is needed, but not as drastic as many, myself previously included, might think.
I feel very confident the 2022-2023 Raptors are closer to a championship than the 2013-2014 Raptors.
Here’s to the quest for depth. Cheers.
Would anyone trade the current team and leadership for for the Babcock or Colangelo eras?
Looking back through Basketball-Reference at Raptors rosters over the years, I see a similarity with the 2012-2014 years, essentially the very end of the Colangelo era and the start of Masai’s tenure as the head decision maker.
The 2012-2013 season ended with fools gold optimism as a team led by DeRozan and Gay finished winning 8 of 11 and 7 of 8 with an overall 34-48 record. This was the ultimate my-turn, your-turn basketball for 2 guys who only wanted to play mid-range. Bargnani didn’t play past March 9th. Colangelo was then demoted for the failure of the accelerated-rebuild and Masai was hired at the end of May 2013.
Masai’s first move was to fleece New York with Bargnani for essentially Steve Novak, a 2016 first (Poeltl) and a second.
With the Bargnani albatross gone, the Raptors started 2013-14 poorly. Gay banned stat sheets and then Masai banned Gay in early December. This article is a nice trip down memory lane: https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1881183-rudy-gay-trade-winners-and-losers-of-kings-raptors-deal.amp.html
Lowry almost became a Knick but Dolan reneged last minute in absolute fear of a Masai hat trick after the Melo and Bargnani trades.
And then something magical happened…with the additions of Vasquez, Salmons, Hayes, and Patterson to the Lowry, DD, JV, Ross, & Amir core, the Raptors clicked and went on to win 48 games. The Raptors had addition simply by subtracting Gay and restoring score sheets to the locker room.
After catching lightning in a bottle, the only (meaningful) move for 2014-2015 was Salmons for Lou Williams and Bebe.
Then the only meaningful moves for 2015-2016 was trading Vasquez for picks that would be Norm & OG (top 3 trade in Raptor history with Bargnani and Kawhi) and signing Carroll (ultimately a terrible move that cost a 2018 pick to remove).
There wouldn’t be another trade for 1.5 seasons until February 2017 when Ross and a first were sent out for Ibaka.
By 2017, the Raptors had a deep squad with all-stars (Lowry & DD), solid role players (JV & Ibaka), and productive rookie contracts (OG, Norm, Pascal, FVV, Delon, Poeltl). They had one last kick at the can and underwhelmed again in the playoffs with a second round sweep by Lebron.
After the Lebronto embarrassment, the rest is history: Casey out/Nurse in, DeRozan out/Kawhi in, and one final trade mid season for Gasol to win it all.
In my opinion, the key to all of this was depth. The depth from the Gay trade onwards allowed the Raptors to compete and have strong regular seasons with some post season runs & flame outs, sometimes in the same postseason! Ultimately it was depth that brought in the pieces needed to win a championship and, without COVID, who knows what would have happened the following year.
That brings us to 2023 and the current squad: they have little to no depth when looking at players and their skills.
They have nice pieces but they can’t trade any of them without creating holes elsewhere, hence the roster lacks depth. The team is, by my estimation, about 6 deep on any given night. You could make an argument they are 8 deep if, and it’s a big if, everyone is healthy and playing to the best of their ability - but those two things rarely happen with starting lineup of FVV/OG/Scottie/Pascal/Poeltl with Boucher, Trent Jr, and Precious being your main guys off the bench. We drop to 5 deep, 7 at max, for the first 2/3s of the season before the Poeltl trade. Because of this lack of roster depth, trading for a superstar (like the Kawhi trade or going all in for KD, as a recent example) is premature.
The players skill set also lacks depth. They have too many guys with similar skills. The 6’9 vision isn’t a failure because they all have similar dimensions. The 6’9 vision hasn’t succeeded because they don’t have enough guys who can shoot the 3 to create space and they don’t have enough guys who can create their own shot, with the latter likely impacting the former.
The drafting of Koloko and trade for Poeltl also showed a recognition of the need for a shot-blocking presence, the ability to run a drop coverage defense, and the struggles against skilled bigs like Embiid. As an aside, imo, the vision 6’9 is a great strategy during stretches of a game but it can’t be the whole game and it never made sense with a small starting backcourt.
So identifying the problem is easy, but what is the solution to a lack of depth?
When looking at Masai’s trade record (https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/amp/nba/news/masai-ujiri-complete-nba-draft-trade-history-raptors/ztucupkdc1iayfdvoszg7bwo ), one thing that I notice is he turns single, sometimes negative assets into multiple productive assets. The Gay trade trade yielded 4 players who could contribute, then Vasquez became Norm (now Trent) and OG, Salmons became Bebe and Lou - it was the trade that kept on giving.
Another thing that stands out is the importance of hitting on late first round draft picks, second round picks, or finding an undrafted player who can contribute. Masai did that with Delon, Siakam, Norm, OG, and FVV. You don’t need to nail every pick but finding a good undrafted player every few years and hitting on a couple late picks every few years makes a huge difference to a team depth and ultimate success.
So what are the Raptors options for adding depth then? You can make the argument trading the 2022 first to move back 12 spots and acquire Thad was already one attempt at adding depth.
Trading OG or Siakam seems logical but then how do you replace them? If you’re trading them for picks, that is a gamble to say the least. You’d be thrilled if anything you drafted turned into either of them, but that would likely take years to develop. This explains why the word from all the trade rumours around Toronto was they valued proven, young, controllable rookie contract players ahead of picks. They wanted players who already showed they could play in the NBA. Assuming this is true, there is no question Masai recognizes the lack of depth on the roster.
Does trading Siakam for Simons, Sharpe, and a 1st make the Raptors better now or in the future? It’s questionable at best. Right now Siakam is the best player in that trade and what happens when/if Simons D doesn’t improve or Sharpe doesn’t grow his game beyond highlight dunks?
Likewise say a Pacers trade of OG for Nembhard, Jackson, and 2 late first round picks and an early second, that adds a lot of youth but what if they get a bunch of Brunos, Daniels, Johnsons, and Hernadezes in return? It should also allow you to resign Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr without future tax fears with a rising cap and new TV deal. While the trade adds serviceable bench depth, there is no question OG is the best player in the deal and incredibly tough to replace.
What about the UFAs in Poeltl, FVV, and GTJr? Losing any of them for nothing would be very painful for a team already short on depth. Say what you want about any of them, they are all legit NBA players who could contribute on any NBA team. I think it is as close to a given as possible that Poeltl stays.
All three of the Raptors core free agents are going to make more than the MLE which means the only real threats to losing those players for nothing comes from teams with cap space.
There are 12 teams with projected practical cap space over $20m for next season (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2023/ ). But of those 12 teams, there are some that would have to not pick up options of players with value, renounce free agent bird rights, and forego MLE or bi-annual exception. Those realities likely remove Dallas, Portland, Orlando, Lakers, Sacramento, and Charlotte. So that leaves 6 teams with likely cap space. Of those teams with cap space (Houston, San Antonio, Utah, Detroit, OKC, Indiana), I struggle to see either of them paying $20m for Poeltl (although resigning with San Antonio would be the ultimate screw job).
When it comes to Gary Trent Jr there is a risk he could leave if the rumours around Utah & Ainge interest are to be believed, or was Utah working to get him to the Klutch-friendly Lakers and secure the 2029 Lakers 1st? Other than Utah, there doesn’t seem to be much risk from the other teams. GTJr might also be expecting more than the market is offering. When looking at Poole, Barrett, and Herro, there is already a belief among some those contracts are too much, and Gary would likely come in below those 3 in perceived value.
There has been lots of smoke around FVV and Orlando. Houston has been mentioned too, and they could easily sign him outright. Orlando could sign Fred outright if they waived Isaac and Harris, but in doing so they’d give up their BAE and MLE as well as a useful player in Harris. Isaac would be very useful if he could ever get and stay healthy. His contract has value because only $7.6m is guaranteed for next year and it is unguaranteed for 2024-25.
What about sign and trades? As mentioned losing either of Poeltl, FVV, or Trent Jr would be harmful for a team lacking depth. I feel like Poeltl is a lock to stay. Gary and Fred though, not so much.
Gary has been a solid soldier, not causing any disruption coming off the bench or seeing a limited role when the team is healthy. If he started a contract around $20m over 5 years I’d have no worries about keeping him. However, I’m sure he’d like to start. What if he can get $20+ per and start elsewhere? A team I think is possible is the Lakers. A sign and trade around Beasley and the rights to their 2023 1st would be a great way to add depth and a controllable rookie contract. Beasley gives you another tradable contract as well that could be use to make a larger move or to get other future picks (think Vasquez trade 2.0). It was rumoured at the deadline Atlanta, Cleveland, NO, and Miami had interest in Beasley. However if Beasley returned to his pre-Larsa Pippen days, you might just want to keep him.
A sign and trade for FVV with Orlando could produce multiple assets in return. Any of Harris, Anthony, Houstan, or a future 2nd would be much better than nothing. Harris and Anthony both address areas of need. As mentioned Isaac is a useful contract for a future trade at worst.
There is also the possibility of trading down in the draft. Would Utah trade 18 and 27 for Raps pick? Or how about Indiana with 25, 29, and 32? Brooklyn with 21 & 22? If ever there was a time to replicate the 2016 draft it is now.
Finally what about a trade of a player under contract? Could the Vasquez magic be replicated with Boucher? Could Flynn return another forgotten rookie contract? Denver needs a backup PG and have Watson, Braun, and Cancar. I doubt Otto returns much and, if healthy, he actually addresses a Raptors need.
It was 6 years from Masai’s takeover to the championship. During that time there was all kinds of calls for tanking (Riggin for Wiggins), trading players the fan base was divided over (Bargnani, Gay, DeRozan), getting rid of players too old to meet the timeline of other players, and firing the coach (Casey). DeRozan and Lowry (forever labelled 2nd/3rd/4th options on a championship team) were resigned to large extensions. Through it all Masai stayed….wait for it….patient.
Today we have similar calls: tank! tank! tank!, trade Siakam/OG/FVV, “insert player” is too old to play with prime Scottie, fire Nurse, and don’t resign FVV for big money. But as history showed, I think Masai stays even keeled and works to accumulate assets that will provide the depth needed on a championship run and the trade chips needed to acquire championship pieces.
For fans that haven’t been around since ‘95 or who only started following in the last 4-5 years this is likely to be a very difficult time. For everyone else, hopefully you can enjoy the ride. Remember the very dark days of Babcock & Colangelo and recognize there were steps forward and painful steps back over the 6 years that ultimately led to the 2019 championship.
It will be interesting to watch what Masai does moving forward because, as I now realize looking at past seasons, the current state of the team isn’t bad at all. I think there is no question change is needed, but not as drastic as many, myself previously included, might think.
I feel very confident the 2022-2023 Raptors are closer to a championship than the 2013-2014 Raptors.
Here’s to the quest for depth. Cheers.
