Raptors 2024-25 - A good and VIABLE scenario

[Statistician MK]

Lets start with Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter, Garrett Temple, Markquis Nowell, Jordan Nwora and Kira Lewis.
We will not re-sign any of them and we will simply kick them off the team... These eight are "worth" over $67M.

Lets build the roster now!

1. For the next season we have seven players under contracts: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroeder, Chris Boucher, Gradey Dick and Jalen McDaniels.
The total salary for these seven players is $88,766,216.

2. We will sign Immanuel Quickley for four years... The 2-way contracts with Jontay Porter and Javon Freeman-Liberty will be converted to standard contracts with a minimum salary (based on the NBA experience).

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

And we will have this situation:



So, now we have a roster with 14 players, with a total payroll of $121M... It will be around $21M to the Salary cap, and it's over $50M before the Tax level... More than enough for a super-star FA.

The things look much better that a couple of weeks ago.
And lets consider that we can get even more if we trade GTJ or Brown... It would be a great bonus.

By the way, the money from Schroeder, Boucher and McDaniels we will use in 2025 to resign Barnes to a max contract. We will have around $40M for this!

[Dennis 37]

Lets start with Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter, Garrett Temple, Markquis Nowell, Jordan Nwora and Kira Lewis.
We will not re-sign any of them and we will simply kick them off the team... These eight are "worth" over $67M.

Lets build the roster now!

1. For the next season we have seven players under contracts: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroeder, Chris Boucher, Gradey Dick and Jalen McDaniels.
The total salary for these seven players is $88,766,216.

2. We will sign Immanuel Quickley for four years... The 2-way contracts with Jontay Porter and Javon Freeman-Liberty will be converted to standard contracts with a minimum salary (based on the NBA experience).

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

And we will have this situation:



So, now we have a roster with 14 players, with a total payroll of $121M... It's over $50M before the Tax level... More than enough for a super-star FA.

The things look much better that a couple of weeks ago.
And lets consider that we can get even more if we trade GTJ or Brown... It would be a great bonus.

By the way, the money from Schroeder, Boucher and McDaniels we will use in 2025 to resign Barnes to a max contract. We will have around $40M for this!

Super plan, but. . .

Dennis Schroder is the best FA who has ever signed with us. Superstar FAs do not sign with Toronto.

[And1Skip]

only realistic FA's (not counting restricted FAs who will stay with their teams) in 2025 available are Jamal Murray and Brandon Ingram. I don't count Donavan Mitchell as he won't come here.

[gerrit4]

Don't forget - IQ's cap hold is only 12.5 million. That means we can use our $30 mill in cap room before re-signing him. If we dump Boucher, McDaniels, or Schroeder, it could be more.

It could also be less if we take long-term salary in a Bruce Brown trade.

[OakleyDokely]

It's more likely the Raps use that flexibility to trade for someone they like.

The FA class is pretty trash and usually free agency isn't a good way to build because you need to overpay for almost everyone.

[StopitLeo]

I don’t think we should count on signing a superstar free agent, ever.

Cap space benefits the Raptors by allowing them to offer more than the non-taxpayer MLE to a free agent. We could look at a front loaded offer sheet for Patrick Williams perhaps.

[Steelo Green]

Best case scenario is we suck this year and suck next year. Keep our first rounder both years.

[Brinbe]

I've always thought the Raps may make a run at Murray when he's a UFA but I also don't see why he'd leave a good situation in Denver and the Nuggs would pay him to stick around.

[whitehops]

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

couple small things... for the first round picks teams almost always sign the max 120% of the rookie scale number so those would be a little higher. i believe their cap holds are for that amount as well but could be wrong on that.

and i know it's hard for projecting but if the raps go into the lottery with the 6th worst record they really only have an 8.6% chance of staying there. they'd have a 37.2% chance of moving into the top 4 (~9% chance they land on any one of the top 4 picks) and a 54.2% chance they end up 7th or lower and the pick conveys to the spurs.

[DG88]

I'd rather the pick convey this year to the Spurs. Use th IND and OKC pick to fill up roster depth. Use the DET pick on a project player.

[YogurtProducer]

I've always thought the Raps may make a run at Murray when he's a UFA but I also don't see why he'd leave a good situation in Denver and the Nuggs would pay him to stick around.

I think we make a run. He’s won the title already so who knows, maybe he’s feeling patriotic

Guys like Kawhi have shown some dudes will play where they want to play rather than what’s best for them to win

[YogurtProducer]

I'd rather the pick convey this year to the Spurs. Use th IND and OKC pick to fill up roster depth. Use the DET pick on a project player.

Or suck this year, lean into to a full tank next year, convey in 2026 or even suck again if things don’t work out.

[KL78192020]

Lets start with Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter, Garrett Temple, Markquis Nowell, Jordan Nwora and Kira Lewis.
We will not re-sign any of them and we will simply kick them off the team... These eight are "worth" over $67M.

Lets build the roster now!

1. For the next season we have seven players under contracts: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroeder, Chris Boucher, Gradey Dick and Jalen McDaniels.
The total salary for these seven players is $88,766,216.

2. We will sign Immanuel Quickley for four years... The 2-way contracts with Jontay Porter and Javon Freeman-Liberty will be converted to standard contracts with a minimum salary (based on the NBA experience).

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

And we will have this situation:



So, now we have a roster with 14 players, with a total payroll of $121M... It's over $50M before the Tax level... More than enough for a super-star FA.

The things look much better that a couple of weeks ago.
And lets consider that we can get even more if we trade GTJ or Brown... It would be a great bonus.

By the way, the money from Schroeder, Boucher and McDaniels we will use in 2025 to resign Barnes to a max contract. We will have around $40M for this!

Well first of all there aren't many superstar free agents. Second of all they never sign here. Third of all the salary cap will be about $140 million, so you only have about $20 million in cap space. The luxury tax threshold amount has nothing to do with cap space.

Quickly is also getting probably a bit more than our estimate.

[KL78192020]

I've always thought the Raps may make a run at Murray when he's a UFA but I also don't see why he'd leave a good situation in Denver and the Nuggs would pay him to stick around.

I think we make a run. He’s won the title already so who knows, maybe he’s feeling patriotic

Guys like Kawhi have shown some dudes will play where they want to play rather than what’s best for them to win

Would probably have to trade for him, doubt he leaves as a UFA with Denver holding his bird rights.

[Statistician MK]

for the first round picks teams almost always sign the max 120% of the rookie scale number so those would be a little higher. i believe their cap holds are for that amount as well but could be wrong on that.

It's not a big difference... Especially for the first two years, the salaries are very low and reasonable!

...and i know it's hard for projecting but if the raps go into the lottery with the 6th worst record they really only have an 8.6% chance of staying there. they'd have a 37.2% chance of moving into the top 4 (~9% chance they land on any one of the top 4 picks) and a 54.2% chance they end up 7th or lower and the pick conveys to the spurs.

You're right... It's a lottery, so I can't know what will happen... And I had to go with something!:)

[DG88]

I'd rather the pick convey this year to the Spurs. Use th IND and OKC pick to fill up roster depth. Use the DET pick on a project player.

Or suck this year, lean into to a full tank next year, convey in 2026 or even suck again if things don’t work out.

I get that but the margins of being that bad are slim even next year. Even if we're not bad enough to be top 6 let say top 8. You'd rather not give up a good pick in a deep draft.

[MoneyBall]

Lets start with Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter, Garrett Temple, Markquis Nowell, Jordan Nwora and Kira Lewis.
We will not re-sign any of them and we will simply kick them off the team... These eight are "worth" over $67M.

Lets build the roster now!

1. For the next season we have seven players under contracts: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroeder, Chris Boucher, Gradey Dick and Jalen McDaniels.
The total salary for these seven players is $88,766,216.

2. We will sign Immanuel Quickley for four years... The 2-way contracts with Jontay Porter and Javon Freeman-Liberty will be converted to standard contracts with a minimum salary (based on the NBA experience).

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

And we will have this situation:



So, now we have a roster with 14 players, with a total payroll of $121M... It's over $50M before the Tax level... More than enough for a super-star FA.

The things look much better that a couple of weeks ago.
And lets consider that we can get even more if we trade GTJ or Brown... It would be a great bonus.

By the way, the money from Schroeder, Boucher and McDaniels we will use in 2025 to resign Barnes to a max contract. We will have around $40M for this!

Super plan, but. . .

Dennis Schroder is the best FA who has ever signed with us. Superstar FAs do not sign with Toronto.

I know I'm nitpicking but this clearly isn't true.

[WuTang_CMB]

Gotta hit with 1 of those picks. I think some get traded by TD or on draft night

[ItsDanger]

The best and viable scenario is tanking in 2025 and getting a top 5 lottery pick. That's within your power and not relying on a free agent.

[Dennis 37]

Lets start with Gary Trent Jr, Bruce Brown, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter, Garrett Temple, Markquis Nowell, Jordan Nwora and Kira Lewis.
We will not re-sign any of them and we will simply kick them off the team... These eight are "worth" over $67M.

Lets build the roster now!

1. For the next season we have seven players under contracts: Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Schroeder, Chris Boucher, Gradey Dick and Jalen McDaniels.
The total salary for these seven players is $88,766,216.

2. We will sign Immanuel Quickley for four years... The 2-way contracts with Jontay Porter and Javon Freeman-Liberty will be converted to standard contracts with a minimum salary (based on the NBA experience).

3. We will sign the players that we are going to get from the draft... Our 6th pick (I hope we will keep it), the 17th pick (it will be around) - via IND, the 28 pick (it will be around) - via OKC, and the 31st (most likely) - via DET.
With the three 1st round picks we will sign rookie contracts, and with the 31st pick (it's a 2nd round pick) we will sign a Two-way contract.

And we will have this situation:



So, now we have a roster with 14 players, with a total payroll of $121M... It's over $50M before the Tax level... More than enough for a super-star FA.

The things look much better that a couple of weeks ago.
And lets consider that we can get even more if we trade GTJ or Brown... It would be a great bonus.

By the way, the money from Schroeder, Boucher and McDaniels we will use in 2025 to resign Barnes to a max contract. We will have around $40M for this!

Super plan, but. . .

Dennis Schroder is the best FA who has ever signed with us. Superstar FAs do not sign with Toronto.

I know I'm nitpicking but this clearly isn't true.

Sure we got Anthony Parker and Jose Calderon from Europe, and one could argue they were better than Dennis, but attracting an FA from another NBA team, who was better? Hedo Turkoglu? Jeremy Lin?