RealGM

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/

Some sober reality when we are discussing players. In terms of players who become the best of the best, it is obvious they USUALLY come from the top of each draft class, but even then, the odds are against it. The odds are still better than Lotto MAX though lol

No. 1

MVP: 14.67 percent
Finals MVP: 10.67 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 24.00 percent
All-NBA Team: 38.67 percent
All-Star: 65.33 percent
All-Defensive: 21.33 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 4.00 percent
NBA champion: 32.00 percent

No. 2

MVP: 6.67 percent
Finals MVP: 6.67 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 18.67 percent
All-NBA Team: 28.00 percent
All-Star: 42.67 percent
All-Defensive: 13.33 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 5.33 percent
NBA champion: 25.33 percent

No. 3

MVP: 4.00 percent
Finals MVP: 2.67 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 17.33 percent
All-NBA Team: 26.67 percent
All-Star: 45.33 percent
All-Defensive: 12.00 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 1.33 percent
NBA champion: 21.33 percent

No. 4

MVP: 3.95 percent
Finals MVP: 0.00 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 5.26 percent
All-NBA Team: 14.47 percent
All-Star: 34.21 percent
All-Defensive: 9.21 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 2.63 percent
NBA champion: 23.68 percent

No. 5

MVP: 2.63 percent
Finals MVP: 1.32 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 10.53 percent
All-NBA Team: 22.37 percent
All-Star: 35.53 percent
All-Defensive: 11.84 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 2.63 percent
NBA champion: 26.32 percent

No. 6

MVP: 1.30 percent
Finals MVP: 1.30 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 3.90 percent
All-NBA Team: 6.49 percent
All-Star: 19.48 percent
All-Defensive: 6.49 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 1.30 percent
NBA champion: 20.78 percent

No. 7

MVP: 1.41 percent
Finals MVP: 2.82 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 5.63 percent
All-NBA Team: 9.86 percent
All-Star: 16.90 percent
All-Defensive: 7.04 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 1.41 percent
NBA champion: 23.94 percent

No. 8

MVP: 1.35 percent
Finals MVP: 1.35 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 2.70 percent
All-NBA Team: 12.16 percent
All-Star: 20.27 percent
All-Defensive: 5.41 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 14.86 percent

No. 9

MVP: 1.33 percent
Finals MVP: 4.00 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 5.33 percent
All-NBA Team: 12.00 percent
All-Star: 24.00 percent
All-Defensive: 5.33 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 1.33 percent
NBA champion: 14.67 percent

No. 10

MVP: 0.00 percent
Finals MVP: 1.37 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 2.74 percent
All-NBA Team: 12.33 percent
All-Star: 24.66 percent
All-Defensive: 12.33 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 28.77 percent

No. 11

MVP: 0.00 percent
Finals MVP: 0.00 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 1.49 percent
All-NBA Team: 8.96 percent
All-Star: 20.90 percent
All-Defensive: 5.97 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 13.43 percent

No. 12

MVP: 1.43 percent
Finals MVP: 1.43 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 1.43 percent
All-NBA Team: 5.71 percent
All-Star: 12.86 percent
All-Defensive: 2.86 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 17.14 percent

No. 13

MVP: 2.78 percent
Finals MVP: 1.39 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 4.17 percent
All-NBA Team: 6.94 percent
All-Star: 12.50 percent
All-Defensive: 6.94 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 15.28 percent

No. 14

MVP: 0.00 percent
Finals MVP: 0.00 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 2.86 percent
All-NBA Team: 5.71 percent
All-Star: 10.00 percent
All-Defensive: 5.71 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 17.14 percent

So ur saying pick 1 through 14 has some good odds at talent?

The reality of the draft is much more dim than a lot want to admit. Obviously is the best place to find talent, but the odds are so significantly stacked against you.

The #1 pick give you about a 30% chance of finding a Pascal Siakam level player. AKA - there is a higher chance (35%) that you draft a player who does not even make an all-star game.

You can win the lottery for 3 straight years, and there is a decent chance you end up with only 1 of them being an all-star level player.

Seems to be that when you read this board however that tanking and bottoming out is a surefire recipe for success.

Yeah but why bother, when you can toil away on a treadmill for years. Don't worry guys, we're gonna get the team to be better with all those FA signings that work out all the time, and the 2 trades we do every 6 years.

Excellent. So we need top 2 for a chance >2% at an MVP. CLEARLY easier to trade for one.

I wonder which is the MVP drafted at #13

.Edit: Hell, we should trade for 15 (Nash, Giannis)

I knew #13 is Kobe, but also Karl Malone!

YogurtProducer wrote:The reality of the draft is much more dim than a lot want to admit. Obviously is the best place to find talent, but the odds are so significantly stacked against you.

The #1 pick give you about a 30% chance of finding a Pascal Siakam level player. AKA - there is a higher chance (35%) that you draft a player who does not even make an all-star game.

You can win the lottery for 3 straight years, and there is a decent chance you end up with only 1 of them being an all-star level player.

Seems to be that when you read this board however that tanking and bottoming out is a surefire recipe for success.

Masai: that's why I trade away picks for Vets

mihaic wrote:Excellent. So we need top 2 for a chance >2% at an MVP. CLEARLY easier to trade for one.

I wonder which is the MVP drafted at #13

.Edit: Hell, we should trade for 15 (Nash, Giannis)

We did. Kawhi was pick 15

DelAbbot wrote:

mihaic wrote:Excellent. So we need top 2 for a chance >2% at an MVP. CLEARLY easier to trade for one.

I wonder which is the MVP drafted at #13

.Edit: Hell, we should trade for 15 (Nash, Giannis)

We did. Kawhi was pick 15

He was never MVP no? "Just" finals MVP. But yeah, I knew. That is why I wrote it.

Seems like after the top 5 it really becomes a crapshoot.

The hand wringing of losing draft position between like 6-14 seems like wasted mental effort.

Puts into perspective what the Raptors did in the 2016 draft. Denny's grandslam breakfast
I remember it being labeled as a top 8 draft lol and it was locked in weeks before

Poeltl #9
Siakam #27
FVV undrafted

I understand the higher end talent is usually picked at the top. But if you don't have a great culture, development program, it makes it a lot harder to get these players to reach their potential. That's why picking outside of the lottery is especially tough because you have to identify players which a solid base of skill that you think that can really improve as a player under your program.

Scase wrote:Yeah but why bother, when you can toil away on a treadmill for years. Don't worry guys, we're gonna get the team to be better with all those FA signings that work out all the time, and the 2 trades we do every 6 years.

Posts like this is exactly what I mean.

The odds of selecting a player in the mid-lottery or as a low playoff team are very clearly low. The odds of getting a stud in FA or through trade are also low. Anyone who is on more of a "try and be competitive and see what happens" mind frame is capable of acknowledging and recognizing those facts.

So why do we mock that avenue while we can see the stats laid out by OP show that the odds of getting elite players through the draft are also low? Especially when the odds even plummet further when you recognize you still have to build up the rest of your team after tearing it down.

While i agree that the draft is the best way to acquire talent, i do think people are far too excited about draft picks and rookies. Elfrid Payton, Dragan Bend, Kris Dunn and Josh Jackson were all highly touted top 10 draft picks.

Duffman100 wrote:Seems like after the top 5 it really becomes a crapshoot.

The hand wringing of losing draft position between like 6-14 seems like wasted mental effort.

No

Wrt landing a MVP level talent, losing draft position between like 6-14 might only be less than a few % difference.

Wrt landing a starting quality talent, losing draft position between like 6-14 is a big deal

Duffman100 wrote:Seems like after the top 5 it really becomes a crapshoot.

The hand wringing of losing draft position between like 6-14 seems like wasted mental effort.

I'd say outside the top 11 would be where I'd draw the line. Inside the top 11 it still seems like a decent 10ish percent chance for an all NBA player, so still good contributors generally speaking. But if it's MVP or bust (it should never be ), yeah I agree.

WuTang_OG wrote:Puts into perspective what the Raptors did in the 2016 draft. Denny's grandslam breakfast
I remember it being labeled as a top 8 draft lol and it was locked in weeks before

Poeltl #9
Siakam #27
FVV undrafted

I understand the higher end talent is usually picked at the top. But if you don't have a great culture, development program, it makes it a lot harder to get these players to reach their potential. That's why picking outside of the lottery is especially tough because you have to identify players which a solid base of skill that you think that can really improve as a player under your program.

How do you explain since 2020 our organization losing the ability to land non-lottery talent through the draft and losing the culture and development program to make Flynn, Achiuwa, Banton develop?

DelAbbot wrote:

Duffman100 wrote:Seems like after the top 5 it really becomes a crapshoot.

The hand wringing of losing draft position between like 6-14 seems like wasted mental effort.

No

Wrt landing a MVP level talent, losing draft position between like 6-14 might only be less than a few % difference.

Wrt landing a starting quality talent, losing draft position between like 6-14 is a big deal

Look at the all NBA and all star %s again.

DelAbbot wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:Puts into perspective what the Raptors did in the 2016 draft. Denny's grandslam breakfast
I remember it being labeled as a top 8 draft lol and it was locked in weeks before

Poeltl #9
Siakam #27
FVV undrafted

I understand the higher end talent is usually picked at the top. But if you don't have a great culture, development program, it makes it a lot harder to get these players to reach their potential. That's why picking outside of the lottery is especially tough because you have to identify players which a solid base of skill that you think that can really improve as a player under your program.

How do you explain since 2020 our organization losing the ability to land non-lottery talent through the draft and losing the culture and development program to make Flynn, Achiuwa, Banton develop?

mix of misfiring on picks (flynn) and nurse not playing. replicating 16' is not common at all
dont need to derail every thread del. I was pointing out how productive the 2016 draft was for us with players chosen all over board.

YogurtProducer wrote:

Scase wrote:Yeah but why bother, when you can toil away on a treadmill for years. Don't worry guys, we're gonna get the team to be better with all those FA signings that work out all the time, and the 2 trades we do every 6 years.

Posts like this is exactly what I mean.

The odds of selecting a player in the mid-lottery or as a low playoff team are very clearly low. The odds of getting a stud in FA or through trade are also low. Anyone who is on more of a "try and be competitive and see what happens" mind frame is capable of acknowledging and recognizing those facts.

So why do we mock that avenue while we can see the stats laid out by OP show that the odds of getting elite players through the draft are also low? Especially when the odds even plummet further when you recognize you still have to build up the rest of your team after tearing it down.

And to add, why are we forcing a tank when we’re closer to contention than to the extreme bottom with players who can grow with us.

This is why, despite my advocacy for a soft tank next season, I still push for established talent like Wiggins (and to a lesser extent Zach LaVine) while also looking to add complementary pieces such as a backup guard (THT) and a big wing (Derrick Jones Jr.).

WuTang_OG wrote:

DelAbbot wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:Puts into perspective what the Raptors did in the 2016 draft. Denny's grandslam breakfast
I remember it being labeled as a top 8 draft lol and it was locked in weeks before

Poeltl #9
Siakam #27
FVV undrafted

I understand the higher end talent is usually picked at the top. But if you don't have a great culture, development program, it makes it a lot harder to get these players to reach their potential. That's why picking outside of the lottery is especially tough because you have to identify players which a solid base of skill that you think that can really improve as a player under your program.

How do you explain since 2020 our organization losing the ability to land non-lottery talent through the draft and losing the culture and development program to make Flynn, Achiuwa, Banton develop?

mix of misfiring on picks (flynn) and nurse not playing. replicating 16' is not common at all
dont need to derail every thread del. I was pointing out how productive the 2016 draft was for us with players chosen all over board.

I don't see that he derail this thread. You pointed out that 2016 was an anomaly year in which we hit on a few picks. He pointed out that post-2020 years were not as good (Barnes notwithstanding & Dick TBD), a regression to the mean. This is within bounds of thread topic and consistent with the idea that drafting is as much (if not more) as having luck as having skill.

All this shows is that front office and scouting staffs have more of an impact on draft results than pick position.