True cost of losing top 10 pick: could this be consequence to rebuild?

[nivisi9]

Although many are universally low on the 2024 draft it was still highly likely we could've came away with a nice prospect to add to the core (picking top 8).

Especially if you buy into the theory that this draft is considered "weak" only due to lack of star power at the very top (Which many draft experts have strongly indicated while now praising the depth of this draft).

by now giving up a top 8 pick (completely wasted losing season)..

---Scottie isn't going to want losing for another 2-3 yrs, Masai will feel that pressure and start making treadmill moves before then.

--- At THAT POINT we'll really feel losing this pick and not having that extra core piece, because once that occurs and those moves start being made we are what we are (for the most part - foundation building wise) moving forward.

I read this recently and realized this 100% could be the long term negative consequence/reality of losing this top 10 pick and effecting the rebuild.

Anyone else see this potentially happening?

especially considering Masai's recent yrs track record of transactions? (consumed with poor short sighted treadmill moves).

[Indeed]

No, it is highly unlikely we could've came away with a core piece in this draft picking outside of top 5 or 6.

Said it multiple times, the whole draft is weak, not just the top, many in the draft board (now) realizes as well, particularly, those who thought about trading up and really just get someone in similar with big holes in their game.

[nivisi9]

No, it is highly unlikely we could've came away with a core piece in this draft picking outside of top 5 or 6.

Said it multiple times, the whole draft is weak, not just the top, many in the draft board (now) realizes as well, particularly, those who thought about trading up and really just get someone in similar with big holes in their game.

You confidently wouldn't have preferred a shot at -- Castle / Risacher / Sheppard / Buzelis/ Holland/ even Cody Williams over the rest of the draft?

Could easily see many of those prospects becoming long term starters or better..

where as not so much with the rest of the draft just like you said

[mdenny]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

[Ackshun]

No, it is highly unlikely we could've came away with a core piece in this draft picking outside of top 5 or 6.

Said it multiple times, the whole draft is weak, not just the top, many in the draft board (now) realizes as well, particularly, those who thought about trading up and really just get someone in similar with big holes in their game.

You confidently wouldn't have preferred a shot at -- Castle / Risacher / Sheppard / Buzelis/ Holland/ even Cody Williams over the rest of the draft?

Could easily see many of those prospects becoming long term starters or better..

where as not so much with the rest of the draft just like you said

I hate the trade but it’s time for us to move on now.

#8 for Poetl isn’t terrible. There will always be guys that get drafted between #8-60 and then become all stars. You don’t know til you know.

Thankfully we have a crack at it twice in the draft. Sure I’d love to have some of the lottery guys on my squad this year because you never know how they will develop in a professional program, but it is what it is.

[Indeed]

No, it is highly unlikely we could've came away with a core piece in this draft picking outside of top 5 or 6.

Said it multiple times, the whole draft is weak, not just the top, many in the draft board (now) realizes as well, particularly, those who thought about trading up and really just get someone in similar with big holes in their game.

You confidently wouldn't have preferred a shot at -- Castle / Risacher / Sheppard / Buzelis/ Holland/ even Cody Williams over the rest of the draft?

Could easily see many of those prospects becoming long term starters or better..

where as not so much with the rest of the draft just like you said

First you said core piece, meanwhile, top 6 would have the chance of core piece in this draft, outside of it is a crap shot (particularly, not buying their ability to defend).
How confident are you having the top 8 pick being an above average starter?

[agkagk]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

Draft picks are overrated to the point that the op considers the entire season lost on account of the 8th pick

Dont worry OP were in good hands.

[Rapsfan07]

There's no way to know yet whether or not conveying the pick this year would be of any major consequence, since we do not know what any of these players will become.

What we do know for sure though is it was a bad trade for a team that was already losing and should be rebuilding to invest such a lightly protected pick into a player who isn't capable of significantly changing the trajectory of team. It was a poor use of assets to prop up a core than anyone could have told you needed to be disassembled.

On the other hand, this draft does look quite weak so if there was ever a draft to trade out of, it's this one.

[Scase]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

So which one is it, our FO is great at drafting. Or the 8th is a bad pick. Cause it cant be both. I'll never understand this ass backwards reasoning.

[Potential]

The cost of losing our top 10 pick was a top 10 center

[ForeverTFC]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

So which one is it, our FO is great at drafting. Or the 8th is a bad pick. Cause it cant be both. I'll never understand this ass backwards reasoning.

Both?

The value of the 8th pick in this draft is that of a pick in the mid to late teens in a normal year. In a vaccum, Poeltl has more value than this pick.

Our FO has been the best drafting FO of the last decade and we should trust them to find the gems on average. That doesn't mean they can find someone better than Poeltl or that they can find a player that they project to have a shot as a legitimate piece in a rebuild.

What I find more "ass backwards" is the belief that our FO is very good at finding value in the draft (I think we all agree and empirical data proves them to be the best in the last decade) yet we don't trust them to value the pick itself in trades. In both the Thad and Poeltl trades, folks lamented the FO moving back or throwing a pick away. If they are the best drafting FO, shouldn't we assume they know better than all of us what the expected value of the picks they're trading are?

[StopitLeo]

Whether you have a successful draft is more luck than skill if team management has any competence. Given the weak assessment of this draft class I think that the quality of player you can get with any pick outside the top 4 (and that might be generous) is probably comparable. Management has shown they can develop guys selected at any point in the draft as well as undrafted players.

We'd be in rough shape for rebuilding if we didn't have a rising star in Scottie on the roster but we do. He might not become the MVP level player you need to make a team a contender but he's probably good enough, with the right pieces, to eventually get this team to be a ECF threat like the DeRozan-Lowry teams.

[Pointgod]

Scottie is not going to ask out after 2-3 years. He’ll gladly take that max extension and maybe threatens to walk when his contract expires, but that’s the extent of it. Acting like we’ll lose him for sure because of rebuilding seasons is just alarmist bs from the posters who want to compete right away.

Yeah trading our pick for Poeltl was a poor decision, even at the time considering the pick wasn’t lottery protected but Barnes is going to get the money first.

[MessiahUjiri]

The cost of losing our top 10 pick was a top 10 center

Poeltl is not a top 10 C. Don’t buy that fake talking point.

I used to think that too. Here are Cs more valuable than Poeltl:

Jokic
Embiid
ADavis
Wemby
Chet
Gobert
KAT
Adebayo
DLively
Sengun
Kessler


And probably also MTurner, NClaxton, JDurren.



There’s a case to be made for like 12-13 Cs easily better than Poeltl. Also guys like Porzingis/Horford/Okongwu/MWilliams are arguably better fits for their teams than Poeltl.


Masai made several bad moves. We should still keep him though, because he’s better than going back to the pre-Masai era. We probably need another guy to counter Bobby.

[YogurtProducer]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

So which one is it, our FO is great at drafting. Or the 8th is a bad pick. Cause it cant be both. I'll never understand this ass backwards reasoning.

Both?

The value of the 8th pick in this draft is that of a pick in the mid to late teens in a normal year. In a vaccum, Poeltl has more value than this pick.

Our FO has been the best drafting FO of the last decade and we should trust them to find the gems on average. That doesn't mean they can find someone better than Poeltl or that they can find a player that they project to have a shot as a legitimate piece in a rebuild.

What I find more "ass backwards" is the belief that our FO is very good at finding value in the draft (I think we all agree and empirical data proves them to be the best in the last decade) yet we don't trust them to value the pick itself in trades. In both the Thad and Poeltl trades, folks lamented the FO moving back or throwing a pick away. If they are the best drafting FO, shouldn't we assume they know better than all of us what the expected value of the picks they're trading are?

A FO can be the best drafters of all-time... it does not change the fact that the quality of players available historically at #8 are pretty underwhelming and that this year #8 is even worse than usual.

Stuff like OG/SIakam picks are complete outliers, even for Masai. But his other great picks have been like Powell at 46 or even like Delon Wright at 20. Picks that are really good but far from franchise altering.

Realistically, a Poeltl level player at #8 is on the higher end of outcomes based on history. If SA ended up with a guy like Poeltl at this pick (starting caliber and/or top end backup), they would more than happy with the pick.

[YogurtProducer]

The cost of losing our top 10 pick was a top 10 center

Poeltl is not a top 10 C. Don’t buy that fake talking point.

I used to think that too. Here are Cs more valuable than Poeltl:

Jokic
Embiid
ADavis
Wemby
Chet
Gobert
KAT
Adebayo
DLively
Sengun

And probably also MTurner, NClaxton, JDurren.

There’s a case to be made for like 12-13 Cs easily better than Poeltl. Also guys like Porzingis/Horford/Okongwu/MWilliams are arguably better fits for their teams than Poeltl.

Masai made several bad moves. We should still keep him though, because he’s better than going back to the pre-Masai era. We probably need another guy to counter Bobby.

I agree top 10 is ambitious and likely untrue.

But Lively/Duren are not better than Poeltl (just younger and more valuable due to age). TUrner/Claxton are similar tiered players but have different strengths/weaknesses themselves.

Jokic/Embiid/Davis/Wemby/Chet/Rudy/KAT/Bam/JJJ/Sabonis/Sengun are the clear top 11 (although KAT/JJJ are better suited as or play PF a lot, and Sengun is a littler overrated IMO). Poeltl is in that next tier with like nother 7-8 guys.

[Scase]

Just go look at the previous 20 picks made 8th overall the nba draft. It's not the catastrophe you are painting it as.

So which one is it, our FO is great at drafting. Or the 8th is a bad pick. Cause it cant be both. I'll never understand this ass backwards reasoning.

Both?

The value of the 8th pick in this draft is that of a pick in the mid to late teens in a normal year. In a vaccum, Poeltl has more value than this pick.

Our FO has been the best drafting FO of the last decade and we should trust them to find the gems on average. That doesn't mean they can find someone better than Poeltl or that they can find a player that they project to have a shot as a legitimate piece in a rebuild.

What I find more "ass backwards" is the belief that our FO is very good at finding value in the draft (I think we all agree and empirical data proves them to be the best in the last decade) yet we don't trust them to value the pick itself in trades. In both the Thad and Poeltl trades, folks lamented the FO moving back or throwing a pick away. If they are the best drafting FO, shouldn't we assume they know better than all of us what the expected value of the picks they're trading are?

Siakam was found with the 27th and OG with the 23rd, if this is the equivalent to a mid to late teens, then why is it that now it all of a sudden lacks value, yet when people want to praise the FO for finding players like that, it is all of a sudden a great asset?

Masai thought it was worth less than Jak, when the plan was to keep FVV, Siakam, and OG. That is no longer the case, so assuming with that much of the situation no longer being true, it stands to reason that the value of the pick is not the same as it was when the trade was made.

We are a team with little talent, not going to compete any time soon, and dont have use for a centre that is a floor raiser, that quite frankly, doesn't want to be in a rebuilding situation. A whole lot of conversation was going around about the toxicity of the culture around here with players, playing for themselves, and generally not wanting to be here, but now we can ignore that cause it's convenient to the situation? Nah, situations have changed, and so should the plan.

[Scase]

The cost of losing our top 10 pick was a top 10 center

Poeltl is not a top 10 C. Don’t buy that fake talking point.

I used to think that too. Here are Cs more valuable than Poeltl:

Jokic
Embiid
ADavis
Wemby
Chet
Gobert
KAT
Adebayo
DLively
Sengun
Kessler


And probably also MTurner, NClaxton, JDurren.



There’s a case to be made for like 12-13 Cs easily better than Poeltl. Also guys like Porzingis/Horford/Okongwu/MWilliams are arguably better fits for their teams than Poeltl.


Masai made several bad moves. We should still keep him though, because he’s better than going back to the pre-Masai era. We probably need another guy to counter Bobby.

I'm like 99.9% sure that Potential was being facetious/sarcastic

[mulamutti]

regardless of what happened in the past, i think this team needs to start adding winning players asap. not necessarily like winning players that would be a top 4 team in the east, but this team has to have a legit chance of winning any given night, and be at least .500 asap. they do need some role players and a couple of playable vets, etc to balance out the roster. If we don't get that this season, i think scottie barnes will start long term planning away from the raptors.

[will]

Oh. So that's why Masai needs to to continue to deal away FRP.