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The lesson there is not to fall prey to Goodhart’s Law, which is that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Nick Nurse and the Raptors tried to rig the possession game, with their analytics department telling them that when a team had five extra possessions it won a fair majority of its games. But the issue is that such a rule only described teams that won those five extra possessions as a symptom of other components of the game, without sacrificing structural integrity in order to do so. When the five extra possessions became what Toronto sought above all else, sacrificing defensive integrity and conceding corner triples, for example, to force more steals: that’s when the analytic ceased being useful.

Those lessons are particularly applicable to these Raptors, who have gone in just the other direction. Instead of slow, no-pass post-ups, these Raptors value ball movement and assists above all else. Darko Rajakovic’s side finished second in assist rate … yet 24th in offense. Rajakovic himself continually preached the team’s assist total in conversation with the media. It was frequently the first thing he mentioned when he came into the room. But the warning from Nurse’s squad is not to chase assists as an end in and of themselves, as Nurse did with possession totals.

Rajakovic’s offense has also gone away from post-ups. A year after finishing in the top 10 for post-up frequency, the Raptors ranked exactly average in frequency last season. And yet! The team finished top 10 in points per chance for all such possessions initiated via post-up, good for 1.06 points per chance. Meanwhile Barnes himself was in the 81st percentile for post-up possession points per chance, averaging 1.17. Perhaps the Raptors could have squeezed more juice out of that particular lemon — one that they learned so much about during the last era.

Toronto’s offensive principles last year were a good foundation for success. Nurse always preached shot quality, and bemoaned his teams’ shooting luck, but the truth of the matter is that Rajakovic’s iteration last year had better shot quality — in the form of expected points per possession — than any of Nurse’s teams from the Length and Strength era. Toronto’s motion and cutting and increased driving and reversals did result in more attempts at the rim and more from deep. But there is always room for more improvement, and added diversification via more post-ups could benefit Toronto now and then.

Perhaps the most obvious lesson of Toronto’s previous epoch is that shooting matters. And in the previous two drafts, Toronto has taken some of the best shooters in college in Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter. If either pans out, let alone both, that would be enormous. Also! Centers and point guards matter. Toronto seems to have learned that lesson, with its enormous investment into Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. (And that (over)reliance on Poeltl also gives Toronto easy access to a high draft pick this upcoming year, if it so desires to pull that particular plug.) Ideally, a team’s best players will complement one another in natural ways. Toronto’s Length and Strength trio did work together, and often very well, but the smoothness of the fit took extra work. BBQ is a fit that intertwines in more organic ways.

ciueli wrote:The problem with vision 6'9" was that players with that kind of size who legitimately have guard skills (ball handling, shot creation, passing, shooting, dribble drive) are usually max contract superstars like LeBron James and Luka Doncic. The few of them that exist are coveted by every team in the league and virtually impossible to acquire.

So to realize the concept lesser players with holes in their game are used instead, even the good but not great ones are max contract players (Pascal, Scottie) then players like Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, and Dalano Banton are used to fill out the rest of the spots. The result is a team filled with 6'9"ish players, that, in theory can switch everything on defence without conceding too much (aside from post ups by a true star big like Jokic, Giannis, or Embiid which demolish them), but the cost is a team with glaring holes in terms of guard skills.

I think this highlights a big issue I have with the front office, they seem obsessed with finding a "one weird trick" to cracking the NBA in a way no one else has thought of before. First it's the failure of Vision 6'9", now it's some weird Hyper-Passing system that leaves no room for players who are just good at other things like shooting and defence, just ignore the fact that the Celtics are a 3+D team that was middle of the pack in assists last year but won the title.

TorontoBarneys wrote:Masai blew his load too early and started plugging up the holes on our roster mid-season to support vision 6'9" or whatever and our ceiling as a team ended up being lowered as a result. Then other teams just got better while we stagnated.

We were a couple guards and a couple years away (aside from the obvious hole at C) from being a genuine deep playoff team, but he couldn't wait and refused to be patient after acquiring Scottie.

ForeverTFC wrote:

TorontoBarneys wrote:Masai blew his load too early and started plugging up the holes on our roster mid-season to support vision 6'9" or whatever and our ceiling as a team ended up being lowered as a result. Then other teams just got better while we stagnated.

We were a couple guards and a couple years away (aside from the obvious hole at C) from being a genuine deep playoff team, but he couldn't wait and refused to be patient after acquiring Scottie.

To some degree, that was forced on him. FVV, Siakam, OG, and Barnes all have a max/near max contract today. FVV was obviously overpaid on purpose, but still would have been up there. There wasn’t much time to let that team marinate. Even if you take out FVV and go all 6’9”, the salary load is still too high.

That’s the issue with trying to build around 2 timelines. Doesn’t really work in this league, especially with the new rules.

oldncreaky wrote:

ForeverTFC wrote:

TorontoBarneys wrote:Masai blew his load too early and started plugging up the holes on our roster mid-season to support vision 6'9" or whatever and our ceiling as a team ended up being lowered as a result. Then other teams just got better while we stagnated.

We were a couple guards and a couple years away (aside from the obvious hole at C) from being a genuine deep playoff team, but he couldn't wait and refused to be patient after acquiring Scottie.

To some degree, that was forced on him. FVV, Siakam, OG, and Barnes all have a max/near max contract today. FVV was obviously overpaid on purpose, but still would have been up there. There wasn’t much time to let that team marinate. Even if you take out FVV and go all 6’9”, the salary load is still too high.

That’s the issue with trying to build around 2 timelines. Doesn’t really work in this league, especially with the new rules.

I agree that the contracts forced the situation a bit. However, Masai and the FO partly created that situation in 2021 by handing the player options to OG and FVV, which shortened the window. They also spent/wasted money and roster spots on guys that had next to no shot at really contributing as the 7th/8th/9th/10th "long boi" on the roster during that short window.

IMO, the most frustrating part as a fan was that they went 3 straight years without a decent backup PG. By the numbers, the best backup guard since Tampa was the underwhelming Jeff Dowtin -- the only backup PG with a positive VORP -- and that glaring weakness killed the team in game after game, where the team couldn't score and lost leads as soon as too many becnh players came on the court.

C Court wrote:It was pretty obvious to many of us that Vision 6'9 was a failed experiment that wouldn't work in the real world and we said so.

The most frustrating part for me were the posters who blindly clung to it like it was the way all teams would be built in the future. The Raptors were smarter than everyone and we were way ahead of the curve. Turns out we weren't.

ForeverTFC wrote:

C Court wrote:It was pretty obvious to many of us that Vision 6'9 was a failed experiment that wouldn't work in the real world and we said so.

The most frustrating part for me were the posters who blindly clung to it like it was the way all teams would be built in the future. The Raptors were smarter than everyone and we were way ahead of the curve. Turns out we weren't.

Vision 6’ 9” and Nurse’s strategy around it were quite unique. I’m glad we have a franchise that is willing to be experimental. It wasn’t just posters who wanted to see it work, a lot of the analytics guys in the media were also very intrigued by it.

They moved on within 3 years so can’t say they were stubborn. It just didn’t work and they’ve pivoted.

I still believe in a world where that strategy hits. Problem is 6’9” guys that are good get paid very handsomely. Hard to make it work in a cap league.

ciueli wrote:The problem with vision 6'9" was that players with that kind of size who legitimately have guard skills (ball handling, shot creation, passing, shooting, dribble drive) are usually max contract superstars like LeBron James and Luka Doncic. The few of them that exist are coveted by every team in the league and virtually impossible to acquire.

So to realize the concept lesser players with holes in their game are used instead, even the good but not great ones are max contract players (Pascal, Scottie) then players like Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher, and Dalano Banton are used to fill out the rest of the spots. The result is a team filled with 6'9"ish players, that, in theory can switch everything on defence without conceding too much (aside from post ups by a true star big like Jokic, Giannis, or Embiid which demolish them), but the cost is a team with glaring holes in terms of guard skills.

I think this highlights a big issue I have with the front office, they seem obsessed with finding a "one weird trick" to cracking the NBA in a way no one else has thought of before. First it's the failure of Vision 6'9", now it's some weird Hyper-Passing system that leaves no room for players who are just good at other things like shooting and defence, just ignore the fact that the Celtics are a 3+D team that was middle of the pack in assists last year but won the title.

ciueli wrote:l think this highlights a big issue I have with the front office, they seem obsessed with finding a "one weird trick" to cracking the NBA in a way no one else has thought of before. First it's the failure of Vision 6'9", now it's some weird Hyper-Passing system that leaves no room for players who are just good at other things like shooting and defence, just ignore the fact that the Celtics are a 3+D team that was middle of the pack in assists last year but won the title.