Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast

[OakleyDokely]

They spent over an hour breaking down the roster. Worth a listen.

Blake Murphy of Sportsnet is our portal into a new kind of Raptors season having fully moved on from the old guard.

What Blake thinks of this tack in the Raptors’ rebuild
Can we take anything away from the limited minutes the new big 3 of Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley played with the Raps a season ago? 4:00.
What to make of Darko Rajakovic after a chaotic season. 12:49.
Jakob Poeltl’s ability to anchor the defense, and how the rest of the talent projects on that end. 17:26.
Scottie Barnes’ evolution into an All-Star. 27:30.
The competition to be the 5th starter at shooting guard and the bench rotation. 37:30.
The Raptors’ rotational and statistical strengths and weaknesses. 50:53.
Our predictions for the Raptors’ season. 1:00.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/toronto-raptors-2024-25-season-outlook-with-blake-murphy/id986901174?i=1000669767195

[Indeed]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

[nivisi9]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year

[Kingsway_fan]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

Masai continues to do nothing worthy of his massive comp to build a bench... treadmill moves like Brown and Olnyk... hoping for a miracle with second round picks ...

[Indeed]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

Masai continues to do nothing worthy of his massive comp to build a bench... treadmill moves like Brown and Olnyk... hoping for a miracle with second round picks ...

The second round picks are meant for 905, so I guess they will take a year.
Actually, if we are not winning this year, it makes a lot of sense in the timing for having those 2nd rounds in the farm system for a year.

[Indeed]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year

The podcast does share the concern that none of the starters are really standout, maybe except Barnes.
However, at the end, no one knows if this is long term treadmill. Is DeRozan era treadmill? We have the same outcome of trading him for Leonard?

[PushDaRock]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year

Would the 8th pick in this year's draft have been a high end prospect?

[agkagk]

The raptors are roughly a 500 team.

the over under of 30 wins is a no brainer over.

[MEDIC]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year

The podcast does share the concern that none of the starters are really standout, maybe except Barnes.
However, at the end, no one knows if this is long term treadmill. Is DeRozan era treadmill? We have the same outcome of trading him for Leonard?

I don't consider any team that can make the semi-finals or ECF a treadmill team.

Treadmill to me is 5-6 seed with not much upside.

[DG88]

Both Blake and Nate were about 2 wins apart at 35 and 33. Which is right were they will probably finish. They're one injury away from collapsing, their bench is not good, they're not strong defensively and they still lack the level of shooting and shot creation to be a winning team.

[Chandan]

Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.

so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year

The podcast does share the concern that none of the starters are really standout, maybe except Barnes.
However, at the end, no one knows if this is long term treadmill. Is DeRozan era treadmill? We have the same outcome of trading him for Leonard?

Let's hope quickley gets good enough we can trade him for SGA in 2 years.

[WuTang_CMB]

30-35 wins , top 10/11 pick pre lottery

[YogurtProducer]

Both Blake and Nate were about 2 wins apart at 35 and 33. Which is right were they will probably finish. They're one injury away from collapsing, their bench is not good, they're not strong defensively and they still lack the level of shooting and shot creation to be a winning team.

33-35 wins feels like what the average would be if you played this season 100 times, but I have a feeling the deviations would look more like 23-45 wins almost entirely based on health.

If we don't see major injuries to our main guys playoffs dont seem out of question. If Barnes / IQ / Poeltl go down for 40 games we could be looking closer to 25.

[ontnut]

The raptors are roughly a 500 team.

the over under of 30 wins is a no brainer over.

Would you like to give me some odds to take the under against you?

[agkagk]

The raptors are roughly a 500 team.

the over under of 30 wins is a no brainer over.

Would you like to give me some odds to take the under against you?

The odds are online.

This is a lay up — assuming good health.

6 of the 8 worst teams are in the east’s

By default we’ll win over 33 - 34.

Healthy we flirt with 500.

I’m no statistician — but the pie can only be cut so many ways— there’s only so many loses and wins.

Ya know

[ontnut]

The raptors are roughly a 500 team.

the over under of 30 wins is a no brainer over.

Would you like to give me some odds to take the under against you?

The odds are online.

This is a lay up — assuming good health.

6 of the 8 worst teams are in the east’s

By default we’ll win over 33 - 34.

Healthy we flirt with 500.

I’m no statistician — but the pie can only be cut some many ways— there’s only so many loses and wins.

Ya know

I know they are. I bet the under. But you said the over is a "no brainer". Wondering how confident you are in this "no brainer" bet, confident enough to give me odds to bet against you?

[DreamTeam09]

A lot of the those guys that are doing these prognostications are doing it with the worst outcome possible in mind & you can see it sway their opinions.
Now it's fair to do so I guess because of recency bias so I'm just patiently waiting for the szn to start.
Now even in this broadcast they're pestimistic of our bench & don't wanna be too high on our starters in order to save face or not be the optimistic guy even though they gave multiple stats of our 3 & 4 man units actually being above league avg
Davion Mitchell is a good PG & will show that this year, he's going to collapse the defense & hit the open guys, he was doing that in college and first year until they took the ball out of his hands for Fox Haliburton monk.
Brown is going to look better than he did last year due to not being injured and the trade scenario not looming over his head until the deadline
Bruno is a strong back-up big that we haven't had a few szns
GD should have better and more stable yr which will do wonders for us a whole as a movement shooter option that teams will have to chase around & pay attention to.

We'll see how things goes, I'm anticipating a new basketball szn

[DG88]

Both Blake and Nate were about 2 wins apart at 35 and 33. Which is right were they will probably finish. They're one injury away from collapsing, their bench is not good, they're not strong defensively and they still lack the level of shooting and shot creation to be a winning team.

33-35 wins feels like what the average would be if you played this season 100 times, but I have a feeling the deviations would look more like 23-45 wins almost entirely based on health.

If we don't see major injuries to our main guys playoffs dont seem out of question. If Barnes / IQ / Poeltl go down for 40 games we could be looking closer to 25.

The average winning percentage since the Play-In was adopted is 0.528 for an 8th seeded team in the East. Those teams either had a top 10 offense or a top 10 defense to secure a 0.500 or better record. Even if we are healthy, meaning our main starters miss roughly 10-13 games max, with all of the deficiencies on this team, you really think they have a 45 win upside? I can understand if we had better bench talent, Scottie and Quickley were certified All Star caliber players and we had the necessary shooting to boot. But as currently constructed I don't see it.

[YogurtProducer]

Both Blake and Nate were about 2 wins apart at 35 and 33. Which is right were they will probably finish. They're one injury away from collapsing, their bench is not good, they're not strong defensively and they still lack the level of shooting and shot creation to be a winning team.

33-35 wins feels like what the average would be if you played this season 100 times, but I have a feeling the deviations would look more like 23-45 wins almost entirely based on health.

If we don't see major injuries to our main guys playoffs dont seem out of question. If Barnes / IQ / Poeltl go down for 40 games we could be looking closer to 25.

The average winning percentage since the Play-In was adopted is 0.528 for an 8th seeded team in the East. Those teams either had a top 10 offense or a top 10 defense to secure a 0.500 or better record. Even if we are healthy, meaning our main starters miss roughly 10-13 games max, with all of the deficiencies on this team, you really think they have a 45 win upside? I can understand if we had better bench talent, Scottie and Quickley were certified All Star caliber players and we had the necessary shooting to boot. But as currently constructed I don't see it.

100% we have 45 win upside. Barnes takes an all-nba leap, IQ takes an all-star leap and we are well on our way (I understand it is unlikely one, let alone both happen).

Also - I find our bench is being unfairly **** on right now. In the new NBA with the cap rules our bench is really not significantly different from a lot of teams, including playoff contenders. It is far from an elite bench, but it is also much better than what we had in the last 2 seasons as well in which we were near the worst in the league.

Look at Sacramento who won 46 games. I am not seeing a huge talent discrepancy between what our team is and what their team was last year. Assuming a Barnes leap, they don't have any higher level players, they did not have a deep bench at all (Davion was 8th in minutes played total there as well), etc. What they did have was buy-in and a system that worked. If we come into the year and we have something just "work" (either offence or defence), we could take that jump. Unlikely? Yes. But it certainly is an outcome you can squeeze you eyes and see

Edit: and also, not every team .500 or better had a top 10 offense or defence. LAL was 47-35 with the 15th O and 17th D. LAC was 17th on both sides year prior. I think you looked just solely at 8 seeds, but that is SSS galore.

[agkagk]

Would you like to give me some odds to take the under against you?

The odds are online.

This is a lay up — assuming good health.

6 of the 8 worst teams are in the east’s

By default we’ll win over 33 - 34.

Healthy we flirt with 500.

I’m no statistician — but the pie can only be cut some many ways— there’s only so many loses and wins.

Ya know

I know they are. I bet the under. But you said the over is a "no brainer". Wondering how confident you are in this "no brainer" bet, confident enough to give me odds to bet against you?

Yes, I have made clear how confident I am.

You’re just literally repeating yourself.


Pretty sure this isn’t how conversations work lol

Ps: you need to lay that bet asap.

Also the Houston over under is a pretty good lock for the under for the exact same but opposite reason -/ the west is too good — they aren’t going over 43.5 without help