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Continued from this thread: viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2429488

Whoa, a mod created tank thread... the ramifications either way could be massive.

I think we are finishing 6th guys. Which sucks because that means we’re likely dropping to 7 or 8. Basketball gods have to bless us like 2021 again.

Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

Newsflash. When looking at the Bulls schedule and ours, there's a 99% chance we finish 10th.

What would you rather? 7th odds and be a loser or 10th odds and be a winner? The dif between 7th and 10th odds isn't much.

I'm hopeful. I say 4th cause yesterday was an anomaly in terms of players getting game time and NOP going to play Zion and actually win a bunch of games.

NotMyKawhi wrote:Newsflash. When looking at the Bulls schedule and ours, there's a 99% chance we finish 10th.

What would you rather? 7th odds and be a loser or 10th odds and be a winner? The dif between 7th and 10th odds isn't much.

be a winner

don't be a loser

720 wrote:I think we are finishing 6th guys. Which sucks because that means we’re likely dropping to 7 or 8. Basketball gods have to bless us like 2021 again.

6th is pretty much a coin toss being a top 6 pick or a 7-10 pick. Top 4 odds are basically the same as being 4th (37% vs 48% - sub coin flip but not dramatically so). Slipping to the 7th spot is where the odds drop off - so that's the goal, stay in 6.

5-6th was always best case. Now that we are moderately healthy 6th is likely the best case scenario. So that's the tank hope at this point - that they can get "unlucky" with injuries or creative enough to find a way to lose enough games not to slip to 7 or lower.

720 wrote:I think we are finishing 6th guys. Which sucks because that means we’re likely dropping to 7 or 8. Basketball gods have to bless us like 2021 again.

That’s not so bad man. I honestly feel we’re dropping further unless they finally decide to sit guys like Yak or Scottie here and there.

DelAbbot wrote:Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

Also reminder,

People laughed when they said this team would get better when they were healthy. That this team was likely a play-in team when fully healthy.

Guess where the Hawks finished last season when they won the lotto. Guess how many games the Pistons lost in the Wemby year when they ended up drafting 5th. Not to say that finishing isn't better, if only because you can't drop down too far, but it's all a lotto at the end of the day and we'll probably finish up 5th-8th depending on how things go and our odds aren't that radically different there compared to the top 4.

So before catastrophizing just realise that it's all out of our hands regardless. And we'll still end up with a top 10 pick to go along with a much improved roster next season. Not a bad way to start out a rebuild.

How many teams are likely to win this year? 3? Cavs, Celtics and the Thunder? To these zero-sum sorts, should every other team just be tanking because they're likely not winning anything?

Imagine complaining that a team with .300 winning percentage isn't tanking hard enough. Would you want to be the Wiz, Jazz, Hornets, Pels? Nevermind the Sixers who are facing one of the worst situations imaginable.

I think my main point is that all things considered I think we're in a pretty good spot going forward regardless of how these last few months go.

DelAbbot wrote:Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

LOL, yeah, and that was our meat grinder portion of the schedule. We were never going to carry a 20% win rate in this final cupcake portion of the schedule, even if we stayed as injured as we were for the first half of the season - and we were never going to stay quite that injured. That was just banking losses while we could, only the silliest of people got excited about being that low in the standings, it was just never going to hold. 2nd spot was never an option. 5th, maybe. If what you want is to lose that much consistently, they need to trade away most of the core, something they clearly were never going to do, so no real sense getting all bent out of shape about that.

10th pick is not a massive win. I'm definitely hoping they manage to win the lotto and end up in the top 4. But if they end up with the 10th pick, I wouldn't exactly write off them getting one of the best players in the draft there, and adding another lotto pick in a strong draft should still have a chance of raising the ceiling of the team. Just keep in mind that even if they managed to end up 5th in the rankings pre-lotto, still more likely to end up out of the top 4 than in it, let alone winning the Flagg sweepstakes. Was always going to require some significant luck to have a truly direction altering outcome from this draft lotto.

Duffman100 wrote:

DelAbbot wrote:Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

Also reminder,

People laughed when they said this team would get better when they were healthy. That this team was likely a play-in team when fully healthy.

I was told all we needed to do was sit Yak and we would be a bottom 4 team.

We weren’t a good team but we were always much better than our record.

Team is trying to lose by playing so many young guys and holding out Yak and BI. But the unfortunate reality is we are going to win occasionally. Even the Pelicans won last night.

I want the Raptors to get a high draft pick, but I very strongly feel that the team should go for the play-in spot as long as they are still eligible. It's their job as professional basketball players to advance as far as they can, and also gives you a much better understanding regarding the potential of the players.

dhackett1565 wrote:

DelAbbot wrote:Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

LOL, yeah, and that was our meat grinder portion of the schedule. We were never going to carry a 20% win rate in this final cupcake portion of the schedule, even if we stayed as injured as we were for the first half of the season - and we were never going to stay quite that injured. That was just banking losses while we could, only the silliest of people got excited about being that low in the standings, it was just never going to hold. 2nd spot was never an option. 5th, maybe. If what you want is to lose that much consistently, they need to trade away most of the core, something they clearly were never going to do, so no real sense getting all bent out of shape about that.

10th pick is not a massive win. I'm definitely hoping they manage to win the lotto and end up in the top 4. But if they end up with the 10th pick, I wouldn't exactly write off them getting one of the best players in the draft there, and adding another lotto pick in a strong draft should still have a chance of raising the ceiling of the team. Just keep in mind that even if they managed to end up 5th in the rankings pre-lotto, still more likely to end up out of the top 4 than in it, let alone winning the Flagg sweepstakes. Was always going to require some significant luck to have a truly direction altering outcome from this draft lotto.

lol people who thought the team was play in calibre if healthy were called delusional but turns out the people that were doom and gloom and thinking we are one of the worst teams in the league were the delusional ones for thinking we would remain bottom 2.


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Los_29 wrote:

Duffman100 wrote:

DelAbbot wrote:Before the usual suspects plaster this thread with revisionist history and claim a 10th pick is still a massive win to our "playoff caliber" roster (if not for injuries).

We were 8-31 on Jan 11 (nearly half of the season done), sitting in 2nd last place (2nd overall pick) and potentially finishing top 5 of the draft going into lottery night.

Don't forget.

Also reminder,

People laughed when they said this team would get better when they were healthy. That this team was likely a play-in team when fully healthy.

I was told all we needed to do was sit Yak and we would be a bottom 4 team.

We weren’t a good team but we were always much better than our record.

Team is trying to lose by playing so many young guys and holding out Yak and BI. But the unfortunate reality is we are going to win occasionally. Even the Pelicans won last night.

Yak hasn’t really been sitting he’s legit injured. But yes it appears they have found out how to play without him. We certainly win the Miami game with him though. He’s the difference in these close games.

NotMyKawhi wrote:Newsflash. When looking at the Bulls schedule and ours, there's a 99% chance we finish 10th.

What would you rather? 7th odds and be a loser or 10th odds and be a winner? The dif between 7th and 10th odds isn't much.

Dude there's a 15% chance we end up 10th. Please take a minute and regroup before posting again.

wegotthabeet wrote:

NotMyKawhi wrote:Newsflash. When looking at the Bulls schedule and ours, there's a 99% chance we finish 10th.

What would you rather? 7th odds and be a loser or 10th odds and be a winner? The dif between 7th and 10th odds isn't much.

Dude there's a 15% chance we end up 10th. Please take a minute and regroup before posting again.

Buddy pulled that "99% chance we finish 10th" straight out of his ass

Hoping for 6th, been expecting 7th since guys started coming back and seeing what even partial lineups with Scottie/IQ/RJ/Yak look like.

dhackett1565 wrote:

720 wrote:I think we are finishing 6th guys. Which sucks because that means we’re likely dropping to 7 or 8. Basketball gods have to bless us like 2021 again.

6th is pretty much a coin toss being a top 6 pick or a 7-10 pick. Top 4 odds are basically the same as being 4th (37% vs 48% - sub coin flip but not dramatically so). Slipping to the 7th spot is where the odds drop off - so that's the goal, stay in 6.

5-6th was always best case. Now that we are moderately healthy 6th is likely the best case scenario. So that's the tank hope at this point - that they can get "unlucky" with injuries or creative enough to find a way to lose enough games not to slip to 7 or lower.

Right now we're projected to win 29 games by the end of the season. As you said the 5-6 is where we finish the season. I still think we finish 5th. The only team that worries me isn't the Nets but the 76ers.
https://powerrankingsguru.com/nba/win-projections.php