RealGM

Stats are from CraftedNBA

Starters
IQ
Barrett
Ingram
Barnes
Poeltl

Bench
Dick
Agbaji
Mogbo
Shead
Boucher
Battle
Walter

Offensive Analysis

Our offense ranks in the bottom third of the league, with an offensive rating of 110.4, placing us 26th in the NBA. Our True Shooting Percentage of 55.3% is below league average, indicating inefficiencies in shot selection and scoring efficiency. A major contributor to our offensive struggles is our low three point Attempt Rate (3PAr) of 32.5%, which is among the lowest in the league. This suggests that we rely too heavily on mid range and inside scoring rather than embracing modern spacing principles. Our pace (98.4) is slightly below league average, meaning they do not push transition opportunities enough to maximize easy scoring chances. Our Free Throw Rate (FTr) of 24.1% is below average, demonstrating a lack of consistent rim pressure that would otherwise lead to efficient scoring opportunities.

Another significant issue is our low assist percentage (AST%) of 56.8%, which ranks among the bottom five teams in the league. This suggests that the offense lacks fluidity, with too many possessions ending in isolation attempts rather than open looks generated through ball movement. Our Offensive Box Plus-Minus metrics for the team hover around -1.8, confirming the struggle in creating efficient offense. Despite a moderate offensive rebounding percentage (OREB%) of 28.2%, second chance opportunities have not significantly improved our overall scoring efficiency due to our low effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 51.2%, which ranks in the bottom five in the league. To improve, we must increase our three point volume, enhance ball movement, and generate more transition opportunities to create easier scoring chances.

Defensive Analysis

Defensively, the we have been equally challenged, posting a defensive rating of 116.2, placing us 24th in the NBA. The opponent effective field goal percentage (Opp eFG%) of 55.8% ranks among the bottom five teams, indicating that we allow too many high efficiency shots, particularly from three point range and at the rim. Opponents shoot 38.1% from three against us, one of the worst marks in the league, largely due to our poor perimeter rotations and lack of consistent closeouts. The defensive rebounding percentage (DREB%) of 72.6% is also below average, suggesting that we allow too many second chance opportunities, further inflating the opponents scoring efficiency.

The teams Defensive Box Plus-Minus is -1.3, reinforcing our below average defensive impact. A major issue is our lack of interior presence, as we allow 66.2% shooting at the rim, ranking among the worst in the league. The low block rate (4.1%) and foul rate (22.7%) indicate that we neither challenge shots effectively nor deter opponents from attacking the paint. Opposing teams score 15.8 fast break points per game against us, showing that the transition defense is another major weakness. We also struggle to force turnovers, with a steal percentage of 6.5% (28th in the league), meaning we fail to disrupt passing lanes or generate transition opportunities from defense. To improve, we need better rim protection, improved three point defense, and a more aggressive perimeter defensive scheme to force turnovers and disrupt offensive flow.

Overall Team Outlook

With an overall Net Rating of -5.8, we are performing well below league average on both ends of the floor. Our combination of inefficient offense and weak defense places us among the bottom tier teams in the NBA. The major issues stem from the poor three point shooting volume, a lack of defensive versatility, and an inability to control the paint on either end. The offensive struggles are exacerbated by limited ball movement and a lack of high efficiency scoring options, while the defensive woes are largely due to poor rim protection and weak perimeter rotations.

If we want to improve the record next season, we have to focus on modernizing the offensive approach by increasing the three point attempts and improving ball movement to generate higher quality shots. On defense, adding rim protection, improving transition defense, and tightening up the perimeter closeouts will be key points. Given the current statistical trajectory, if no major personnel or system changes occur I predict, we project to finish the 2025-26 season in the 35-40 win range.

Hard yes.

I think we run with it for most of 25-26, then figure out if we need to consolidate some.younger players and/ or picks to get some experienced help in fhe 3+D & C department.

I am weirdly onboard with our style of play. It is really different than most other teams with our flex offense and motion.

We have a high number of assists and tend to have scoring spread out which is harder for teams to game plan against.

The lack of three point shooting often rears its head when teams zone us up. Hopefully with a high end player from the draft and Ingram that will fix that gap.

Overall, if we don't embrace the pace and space era, I am okay with it. Watching Celtics and Memphis whip the ball for three point shots is effective but boring. I can't stand the style of play - it just lacks physical grit. Might as well just field a bunch of guards and aim to shoot 60 threes.

I like how we turn people over and run in transition. We just need to convert at a higher clip. We are either terrible at finishing or bad decision makers. I think that is the most aggravating thing to watch when we have an advantage after a defensive stop, have an easy bucket and then miss and give up a layup at the other end.

I'd like to just get a player to fill in for Boucher if we don't keep him. We need some scoring pop and hustle. If we don't shoot better we need to grab offensive boards.

I’m not very optimistic about this team going forward and I believe in/trust stats, but I’m not sure this is worth worrying too much about right now.

I think our stats are bad because we’re a bad team, we’re not a bad team because our stats are bad, if that makes sense.

the stats lose value when the starters have barely played together, and that's not even including Ingram.....you listed a roster that doesn't match with the following stats....context is important otherwise the stats are meaningless.

SFour wrote:the stats lose value when the starters have barely played together, and that's not even including Ingram.....you listed a roster that doesn't match with the following stats....context is important otherwise the stats are meaningless.

It's not a season average it's their career. Fit does matter but it won't take a bad defender and make him great. We need to use the macro data to determine if this will work. The Barrett trade rumour makes it evident the front office knows there's an obvious defensive and spacing issue with our starting group. We need to replace RJ with a reliable 2 way guard that can space the floor and provide POA defense.

POA defense is a glaring weakness in the SL, and floor spacing is not ideal either. It's fine for a first year experiment but not sustainable long term

We're using stats for a team that has heavily been injured, and without Ingram and a valuable lottery pick.

Hit on the draft pick than go grab Embiid in the summer.

Embiid/Scottie/BI/top 5 pick are the new core.

Profit.

Thaddy wrote:

SFour wrote:the stats lose value when the starters have barely played together, and that's not even including Ingram.....you listed a roster that doesn't match with the following stats....context is important otherwise the stats are meaningless.

It's not a season average it's their career. Fit does matter but it won't take a bad defender and make him great. We need to use the macro data to determine if this will work. The Barrett trade rumour makes it evident the front office knows there's an obvious defensive and spacing issue with our starting group. We need to replace RJ with a reliable 2 way guard that can space the floor and provide POA defense.

so your stats are saying that a fully healthy Raptors team with the addition of Ingram will have a net rating of -5.8.....while a heavily injured/tanking Raptors team without Ingram has a current net rating of -5.9

SFour wrote:the stats lose value when the starters have barely played together, and that's not even including Ingram.....you listed a roster that doesn't match with the following stats....context is important otherwise the stats are meaningless.

Yup.

The stats don't take into account IQ missing 40 games, BB and KO missing a combined 70 and Walter missing training camp and almost 20. And all that happened at the same time WHILE we had the hardest schedule in the league to start the year.

And that's why there should be optimism. We moved 2 bench rotation guys for someone who will be our #1 scoring option. Upgrade.

All those minutes that the kids were force-fed to start the season with season, should pay off going forward. A guy like Shead...it already has.

Adding BI slots everyone down a notch...that's good.

Etc...

Still need a good backup C

junot111 wrote:POA defense is a glaring weakness in the SL, and floor spacing is not ideal either. It's fine for a first year experiment but not sustainable long term

Man...would a cheap OG fit in perfectly with his 3+D.

Maybe we start Ochai...let RJ be the 1st bench guy....for better roster balance.

M3tro wrote:Hit on the draft pick than go grab Embiid in the summer.

Embiid/Scottie/BI/top 5 pick are the new core.

Profit.

How are there people that think this?

Embiid is washed. It would honestly make more sense to go for Durant (it doesn't).

Top five players of the draft all look like scorers. Add any of them to the bench and yeah I really like our team. We have 3 legit +20ppg scorers on the starting lineup. Pretty sure that's a first in Raptor history. We need two of Dick, Agbaji &, hopefully the top 5 rookie, to average around 10 off the bench and we're solid. For playoff contention anyways, and roster looks pretty good going forward in terms of possible development or trade assets.

M3tro wrote:Hit on the draft pick than go grab Embiid in the summer.

Embiid/Scottie/BI/top 5 pick are the new core.

Profit.

Embiid is damaged goods at 60 million

Gradey wouldn't start on any winning team. He can still develop offensively, but his defensive outlook doesn't look that good.

Dick, Agbaji, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher, Battle, Walter

4 rookies and one sophomore who's still developing. Has there been any team in history with this many rookies in their rotation and has had a winning season?

Tripod wrote:

junot111 wrote:POA defense is a glaring weakness in the SL, and floor spacing is not ideal either. It's fine for a first year experiment but not sustainable long term

Man...would a cheap OG fit in perfectly with his 3+D.

Maybe we start Ochai...let RJ be the 1st bench guy....for better roster balance.

There's a reason OG's current contract is anything but cheap lol. Ochai does fit the bill but it remains to be seen if he can maintain his 39% 3pt shooting, and who knows if he's in the long term plans

Westside Gunn wrote:

M3tro wrote:Hit on the draft pick than go grab Embiid in the summer.

Embiid/Scottie/BI/top 5 pick are the new core.

Profit.

Embiid is damaged goods at 60 million

Yup...Embiid likely never plays enough games to justify that salary.

He COULD do what what Lonzo Ball did and get a meniscus transplant but seeing how long Lonzo was out for...Embiid doesn't have that kind of time left.

Getting drafted to that awful Sixers team with the Process and all that has to have been one of the worst things for Embiid's career. I'm not sure if he kept getting injured and sat out most of his first 2 seasons but the organization didn't want to focus on winning and development...only on getting as many lottery picks as possible. As a result...he developed bad habits. He often showed up to training camp out of shape and didn't take being a basketball player seriously for a lot of his professional career. He was also disrespectful to coaching and training staff leading to them having an intervention with Brett Brown hoping he would nip the issue in the bud (he didn't).

And Embiid likely flames out in his early 30s.

Thaddy wrote:If we want to improve the record next season, we have to focus on modernizing the offensive approach by increasing the three point attempts and improving ball movement to generate higher quality shots. On defense, adding rim protection, improving transition defense, and tightening up the perimeter closeouts will be key points. Given the current statistical trajectory, if no major personnel or system changes occur I predict, we project to finish the 2025-26 season in the 35-40 win range.

How are we improving the 3 point shooting?
On the Raptors Republic podcast, they explained that Barrett is the one who is assisting a higher percentage shots to Dick (40% from 3), Barnes assisted Dick (low 30%), Quickley assisted Dick (less than 20%, and missed him openly). Ingram may get Dick in the 40%, I assume.

Meanwhile, our defense and offensive flow was better with Davion Mitchell (yeah, injury instead of fit in the mind of people).
The upcoming pick will be the swing as they said, and many here already know.

We focus on the midrange and inside and yet we suck at drawing fouls. Thanks NBA !

We need another defender and need better shooting from outside. I don’t think we can win without that. To be honest both can probably be found in one player who starts. I’m not surprised we were trying to get Hunter and Wiggins. Masai will get his OG replacement and one of the guys we all like in Quickley or RJ will be replaced imo.