RealGM

Dumars said he offered the deal starting at #9 and worked down until he got a yes

Yes, I would've.

But again, this just goes to show how high the front office is on CMB.

Not only did they pass up on Maluach, Noa, etc., but they also passed up on #23 + a potential lotto pick in 2026.

Yeah I would have. Pelicans will likely be terrible again.

No. The FO rightfully declined.


RealGM fans have a tendency to overrate future picks and it shows.

With #9, they would have a better player than they got at 13, so the ‘26 pick wouldn’t be that good. And the ‘25 talent drop to #23 is massive. If you like a guy at 9, take him.

I mean the Raptors arent really in a position to kick the can down the road yet another year. Sure it is possible its a lottery pick and even a good one, but also possible its in the 10-16 range. So if you think CMB (or whoever you take at 9) is better than next years lets say #10, although obviously it could be higher or lower, its not really worth the risk/reward. We might not even be alive in a year! Time to get back on the...fun to watch basketball.

MessiahUjiri wrote:No. The FO rightfully declined.


RealGM fans have a tendency to overrate future picks and it shows.

With #9, they would have a better player than they got at 13, so the ‘26 pick wouldn’t be that good. And the ‘25 talent drop to #23 is massive. If you like a guy at 9, take him.

One would think Queen was their target, it's not like they are sending out that package and then the #1 guy they wanted gets taken and then they are like okay lets run it for our 2nd choice!

The pick is different from the overrated ones or whatever, it's an unprotected pick next year from a bad team. Do you think they make the playoffs? they look like a bottom 3 team in the west

MainEvent wrote:

MessiahUjiri wrote:No. The FO rightfully declined.


RealGM fans have a tendency to overrate future picks and it shows.

With #9, they would have a better player than they got at 13, so the ‘26 pick wouldn’t be that good. And the ‘25 talent drop to #23 is massive. If you like a guy at 9, take him.

One would think Queen was their target, it's not like they are sending out that package and then the #1 guy they wanted gets taken and then they are like okay lets run it for our 2nd choice!

The pick is different from the overrated ones or whatever, it's an unprotected pick next year from a bad team. Do you think they make the playoffs? they look like a bottom 3 team in the west

Well even if they are bad, you still need luck. So you need them to be bad and then get lucky to get a top 4 pick. Otherwise you are later in the lotto and you are trading #9 for mid lotto draft pick next year and #23 this year. Its not like its a guaranteed top pick. Obviously it depends on who you want to draft at 9. Do you think next years #7-10 is better? if you dont like anyone that much at #9 it make sense I guess. In that sense people are overrating the pick as we dont know where it will land (or who will be available). Its a risk/reward thing, there are no guarantees except for who you can draft at #9 when its your turn to pick.

Absolutely. It's the best of the Pelicans/Bucks, right? If so, you have the Pels being a mess in a brutal conference and a Giannis injury/trade as possibilities.

A small chance at a star creator offensively is better than none, and I still think we aren't going anywhere without one.

prob would
dumars is fried
his best player averages 40 games a year

MessiahUjiri wrote:No. The FO rightfully declined.


RealGM fans have a tendency to overrate future picks and it shows.

With #9, they would have a better player than they got at 13, so the ‘26 pick wouldn’t be that good. And the ‘25 talent drop to #23 is massive. If you like a guy at 9, take him.

Yes.

Unprotected swaps are the most undervalued asset in the game. Three potential chances at the 1st overall. The asset could also be split in two. It’s a pick with two swaps attached. One of which belongs to a team with Giannis in the event he asks out this summer, during the season or leading into next. The team also saves $ next season.

I wasn’t crazy high on any of the prospects in our range though.

Zion is the only thing keeping that team afloat, and he's always injured.

I'd do it

I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

artsncrafts wrote:I mean the Raptors arent really in a position to kick the can down the road yet another year. Sure it is possible its a lottery pick and even a good one, but also possible its in the 10-16 range. So if you think CMB (or whoever you take at 9) is better than next years lets say #10, although obviously it could be higher or lower, its not really worth the risk/reward. We might not even be alive in a year! Time to get back on the...fun to watch basketball.

Bingo

Honestly I can totally see why they passed on trading down and instead took CMB. A lot of analyst had CMB at around 6. I don’t think you move down for just a potential gamble for a higher pick next year.

I would do it if they gave us Herb Jones and 23 for 9 and Agbadi

CMB doesn't seem to have a clear path to meaningful minutes right now. Why couldn't we kick the can down the road?

If CMB was gone, then yes. But CMB was there so, no.

Considering that pick is unprotected and could be a top 4 pick, yes I would've definitely taken that deal

I would. Problem with Raptors though is that they needed somebody now. Someone more substantial than what #23 would provide. So I'm not mad at it even though it could come bite us in the ass down the road. Could be the big what-if.

On a separate note, Joe Dumars sure as heck isn't off to a great start though. What a terrible trade. I have no idea why they would think Derik Queen is worth giving up an unprotected pick in 2026, which is likely a high lotto. That's mind blowing when you really think about it. The man is showing why he stopped being relevant shortly after drafting Darko Milicic in 2003.

ForeverTFC wrote:I find that people have a tough time with expected values.

Let's assume there is a 100% chance that either the Pels or Bucks finish in the bottom 5, with equal odds for worst to 5th worst. The expected pick at each spot is 3.7, 3.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 5. Multiply each for a 1/5th chance and the expected value of that pick is the 4.2. And keep in mind we are being generous by assuming a 100% of a bottom 5 finish. So even if you are convinced that one of those teams would SUCK next season, you are still trading for the 4th pick as the most likely outcome. If you assume BOTH have a 100% chance of finishing in the bottom 5, the most likely outcome becomes 3.1.

Depending on where the Raptors had CMB ranked, how they projected the Pels and Bucks next season, and how they projected the talent in the lottery next year, it's completely feasible that they thought the expected value of CMB was higher than the expected value of that pick.

lol not surprising considering how pissed people were that we didn't tank for a 14% at best chance at Wemby