RealGM

dhackett1565 wrote:

dhackett1565 wrote:Sorry if this was posted earlier in the thread, only read back a few pages.

We're currently atop the standings with the best point differential thanks to Chicago. There are 8 undefeated teams left. If we win our 4th game by 1 point, we'll end up with a point differential of +13, which would be 3rd but is within striking distance for a couple teams below that, so there is still risk of missing the playoffs undefeated.

Of the other undefeated teams, the Kings, Wolves and Thunder play tonight, so we should know if they are still in the running and what their point differential is before our game tomorrow.

Tomorrow, we play at 10. The Hawks play at 4:30, the Spurs and Hornets play each other at 7. So a) one team will be out and b) we should know the other two results before our game starts. The Clippers play after us.

All three undefeated teams stayed that way yesterday. Their point differentials are 14.8, 11.5, and 9.5. So with one guaranteed 4-0 team tonight (two 3-0's play each other), we have to win tonight to make the playoffs.

If we win tonight by 1 point, our point differential will +13. Meaning so long as we win, we will place above the Kings and Wolves, and a narrow win will put us behind the Thunder.

Tonight because of that head to head match, only three additional teams can go 4-0 alongside us. If only two could make it, we would be guaranteed to get a spot (if we win) because of our point differential. But since three can, they could all blow out their opposition and join the Thunder above us if we only win by a narrow margin.

Assuming we win by 1 point and end up with a +13 point differential, these teams would need to win by the following margins to beat that. For every increase in our margin of victory, they'd need a similar increase (ie if we won by 10, Spurs need to win by 12).

Spurs: +3 points
Hawks: +25 points
Clippers: +26 points
Hornets: +27 points

If they won by one fewer point than the above it would go to the next tie breaker, total points scored. This is how many more total points each of those teams would need to score tonight than the Raptors:

Spurs: +28 points
Hawks: -7 points (they've scored more points than us so far)
Clippers: +39 points
Hornets: +13 points

One less point than the above and it goes to a coin toss.

Long story short: if we win, even by 1 point, all three other potential winning teams would need to win to go 4-0, and every winner that is not the Spurs needs to win in massive blowout fashion.

So in all probability, win tonight, and we're in the playoffs, even if mathematically speaking we should win by as much as we can to increase our chances.

mtcan wrote:I think it's time to shut down JKW, Shead and Lawson.

mtcan wrote:I think it's time to shut down JKW, Shead and Lawson.

T-d0t wrote:

mtcan wrote:I think it's time to shut down JKW, Shead and Lawson.

Lawson for sure, he's too good for SL. The other guys are sophomores

WuTang_OG wrote:

YogurtProducer wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:

Just saying - the "top 4" thing is stupid with differing schedules.

If they want to run this like a tournament just do it like the FIBA World Cup.

- 8 groups of 4
- play 3 games against your group
- top 2 in group move on
- 2 more games against a new group
- top 8 teams at that point are in a single knockout tourney

You at most play 8 games.

IDK - I would prefer this and would love it if teams brought out more young guys to really see how guys looked against actual NBA talent. I would much prefer if we have Dick and Ochai on this team instead of Tyson Degenhart and Tyreke Key.

WuTang_OG wrote:

YogurtProducer wrote:

WuTang_OG wrote:

Just saying - the "top 4" thing is stupid with differing schedules.

If they want to run this like a tournament just do it like the FIBA World Cup.

- 8 groups of 4
- play 3 games against your group
- top 2 in group move on
- 2 more games against a new group
- top 8 teams at that point are in a single knockout tourney

You at most play 8 games.

IDK - I would prefer this and would love it if teams brought out more young guys to really see how guys looked against actual NBA talent. I would much prefer if we have Dick and Ochai on this team instead of Tyson Degenhart and Tyreke Key.

Teams were against too many games. They did this few yrs ago in a different style and it dragged. I think the current set up is good. Top 4 teams get in and thats it. 6 tops.