Raptors 1st half recap - 2nd Half Prediction

[The_Hater]

1st half total (last season in brackets)

Current Record: 22-19 (19-22)

Scoring Differential: 12th @ +2.1 (10th at +1.0)
Schedule Difficulty: 3rd toughest (30th toughest) - USA today

Offensive efficiency rank: 12th (11th)
Defensive efficiency rank: 12th (12th)

Offensive effective FG%: 12th (10th)
Defensive effective FG%: 20th (22nd)

Turnovers: 2nd @ 11.4 (2nd @ 12.9)
Turnover differential: 3rd @ +2.0 (5th @ +1.7)

Offensive Rebounding %: 25th (30th)
Defensive Rebounding %: 7th (8th)
Rebounding differential: 23rd @ -1.3 (27th @ -3.1)

Note: 2006-07 - 2nd half record: 28-13 (47-35 overall)


Other factors:

Starting PG TJ Ford has only played 17 games. 2007 Starting F Jose Garbajosa has only played 7 games. Starting C Andrea Bargnani shot 37% and had a rebound rate of 6.1 per 40 minutes. Horrific back-up PG play for the 24 games TJ missed.

Thus far we've played a considerably tougher schedule through some key injuries while having one noteable player providing limited production. Our 2nd half schedule (Miami x 4. NY x 3. Minnesota x 2. Charlotte x 3. Milwaukee x 3. Phoenix x 0. Dallas x 0) should be one of the easiest in the entire league.

We play 24 of our remaing 41 games against sub-.500 teams. Our record against sub-500 teams is 16-3 this season.

I think if this team can stay relatively healthy they have a solid shot at 50 wins primarily due to a much easier 2nd half schedule. Both our offensive and defensive efficiency should also improve to top 10 in the league. We've also played much better than most people realize this season posting a +2.0 point differential against the leagues 3rd hardest schedule.

All factors point to this being a better team than the 2006-07 version.

Predicted 2nd half record: 27-14

Predicted overall record: 49-33 (Club Record).

[KG1585]

I agree, people act like the Raps are struggling, but we have played great all season long. Sure there are some games they should have won, but Raps beat the teams they are suppose to beat, there is nothing wrong with that. I am still hoping for 50 wins, especially if TJ comes back soon.

[Shaazzam]

Excellent breakdown Hater.

First half was all about surviving, second half is about taking care of business.

[RapsVC15]

If someone told me at the beginning of the year that our number 1 pick would play horribly, Garbajosa would be out for the year, Bosh would struggle (by his standards) for the first 3 months, have a career minor leaguer as our starting 3, have one of the toughest schedules in the East, and lose our starting point for a month I'd say we'd have somewhere between 10-15 wins. But surprise, surprise we have 22.

All things considered, its been a great first half.

[Joker]

The fact this team consistently beats the bad teams but consistently loses to the good ones shows that we have an adequate amount of mental maturity, but an inadequate amount of talent.

I'd feel much better about our team's potential if we had 22 wins and had an adequate amount of talent but an inadequate amount of maturity.

[wade2bosh]

Big Second Half coming up with an easier schedule. 50 wins is possible no doubt. Good numbers.

[Schad]

The fact this team consistently beats the bad teams but consistently loses to the good ones shows that we have an adequate amount of mental maturity, but an inadequate amount of talent.

I'd feel much better about our team's potential if we had 22 wins and had an adequate amount of talent but an inadequate amount of maturity.

Certainly, we typically lose to top teams, but it's not like we're winless against the better clubs in the league. Now, we have had a definite problem beating the top two in the East (everyone has difficulty with Boston, and we match up horribly with the Pistons), but I have no complaints about our efforts against the West.

Take the top six Western Conference teams; I include Portland in large part because both times that we played them, they were on an incredible roll. Against the Suns, Hornets, Lakers, Mavs, Blazers, and Spurs, we're 4-4 on the season. Five of those games were on the road. That's rather solid, IMO.

[rdtx2005]

If someone told me at the beginning of the year that our number 1 pick would play horribly, Garbajosa would be out for the year, Bosh would struggle (by his standards) for the first 3 months, have a career minor leaguer as our starting 3, have one of the toughest schedules in the East, and lose our starting point for a month I'd say we'd have somewhere between 10-15 wins. But surprise, surprise we have 22.

All things considered, its been a great first half.

too bad the forum would lead you to believe that we should have been 41-0

[Consequence]

Very nice summary, Hater. If you have the stat handy, what was last year's second half strength of schedule rating? Just to compare to what we have for this year.

[Pchu]

Nice post. It's a good counterpoint to all those people who thinks 'the sky is falling' whenever the Raptors loses.

The key to the 2nd half is getting TJ back soon so I don't have to see Derrick Martin/Juan Dixon horror show, and Andrea playing better (he really can't do worse, can he?).

[The_Hater]

Very nice summary, Hater. If you have the stat handy, what was last year's second half strength of schedule rating? Just to compare to what we have for this year.

Unfortunately I have no idea how or where to find any details for the 1st half of last season. All the bracketed stats are based on the entire season.

[Consequence]

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Unfortunately I have no idea how or where to find any details for the 1st half of last season. All the bracketed stats are based on the entire season.

Ah cool.

[Schad]

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Unfortunately I have no idea how or where to find any details for the 1st half of last season. All the bracketed stats are based on the entire season.

I can't give anything remotely close to a strength of schedule rating, but a quick glance at the schedule from last year indicates:

- 23 of our 41 games before Jan. 22 were on the road, including 12 road games against the Western Conference. We only had three the rest of the way.

It's a safe bet that our strength of schedule was in the top third of the league at the midway point...and that we had far and away the easiest schedule in the second half (looks like half our games were against the aggressive tankers).

This year, there's a good chance it will be more of the same; our SoS should fall from 3rd to the bottom half of the league solely because we play the Eastern Conference more frequently, and I totally agree that we should go on a run. Whether we do remains to be seen.

[Pchu]

Very nice summary, Hater. If you have the stat handy, what was last year's second half strength of schedule rating? Just to compare to what we have for this year.

If I am not mistaken, we had a very easy 2nd half schedule as well. The team already went to the West Coast twice, and had a ton of home games in Jan and Feb.

[Joker]

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Certainly, we typically lose to top teams, but it's not like we're winless against the better clubs in the league. Now, we have had a definite problem beating the top two in the East (everyone has difficulty with Boston, and we match up horribly with the Pistons), but I have no complaints about our efforts against the West.

Take the top six Western Conference teams; I include Portland in large part because both times that we played them, they were on an incredible roll. Against the Suns, Hornets, Lakers, Mavs, Blazers, and Spurs, we're 4-4 on the season. Five of those games were on the road. That's rather solid, IMO.

We've yet to play the lakers, but they'll be without bynum when we play them I believe, and we also host the spurs and the hornets. I wouldn't be surprised to see us drop all 4 of those games.

[zong]

someone once said "the greater the expectation, the greater the disappointment."

good topic though

[James699]

I understand the Raptors could have done a lot better if they had Ford and Garbo, but there is still no excuse. Raptors need to pick up their game. Moon, Parker and Bosh need to play like they are right now and bring a lot of energy. Bench players like Kap, Delf, Hump need to be more consistent and play good each night. Bargnani well he needs to play better. It seems to me, he brings more passion in getting his paycheck than playing basketball. Surprisingly, I would really want Juan Dixon to step up. This guy can easily be a threat when he plays good. I would really want him to get into that stage and be a threat off the bench. The guy can play, but he does not bring the game mentally and physically each night.

Racist comments will not be tolerated. Check your PM. -Shaazzam

[TheDoctor]

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Certainly, we typically lose to top teams, but it's not like we're winless against the better clubs in the league. Now, we have had a definite problem beating the top two in the East (everyone has difficulty with Boston, and we match up horribly with the Pistons), but I have no complaints about our efforts against the West.

Take the top six Western Conference teams; I include Portland in large part because both times that we played them, they were on an incredible roll. Against the Suns, Hornets, Lakers, Mavs, Blazers, and Spurs, we're 4-4 on the season. Five of those games were on the road. That's rather solid, IMO.

I'd say that with Bargs MIA and TJ out, we don't have the talent to show consistently against the best teams. But we still have enough to sneak past them from time to time.

TJ and Bargs are the big wildcards here. On schedule alone, with current level of play, we can match or exceed what we did last year. If those two can give us an additional boost, we could cross 50 for the first time.

[C Court]

The next five games will give us a better indication as to whether the Raptors will make a run or continue at a little above a .500 pace.

Upcoming we have:

Boston
Milwaukee
Washington
Washington
LA Lakers

Raps need to win 3, if not 4 to make me a believer that they could hit 49 or 50 wins.

[The_Hater]

The next five games will give us a better indication as to whether the Raptors will make a run or continue at a little above a .500 pace.

Upcoming we have:

Boston
Milwaukee
Washington
Washington
LA Lakers

Raps need to win 3, if not 4 to make me a believer that they could hit 49 or 50 wins.

You're just showing that after the next 5 games our schedule gets even easier with 0 games left against Boston, Dallas and Phoenix and 23 of the remaining 36 games against losing teams.

Winning streaks get put together against bad teams, not good ones CC.

You've become excedingly pessimistic this year CC. Since when did I become the positive one in all of this?