Hollinger Playoff Odds

DarkKnight · Post #1 » by **DarkKnight** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:52 pm

Somehow I'd never seen this page before, and never seen it discussed here. Could be I just missed it, so if everyone else has seen this and it's been discussed ad nauseum, just lock this up.

The page is http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Apparently he uses his crazy computers to run 5000 season simulations to try and determine the outcome. As things stand, he has the Raptors witha 100% chance of making the playoffs and a projected record of 49-33. The best record from the simulations is 59-23 and the worst was 37-45, which I guess was still good enough to make the playoffs in the east.

What do you think of this as a forecasting tool? Does 49-33 sound high or low to you?

Hendrix · Post #2 » by **Hendrix** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 3:12 pm

Sounds about right. Right now half way through the season we're on pace for 45 wins. According to the Sagarin ratings we've had the hardest schedule of any team in the league so far this year. If that means we have one of the easiest second halfs in the league then knocking out a few extra wins shouldn't be a problem imo.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/ ... titialskip

pdawg81 · Post #3 » by **pdawg81** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:16 pm

New Jersey with a 4% chance of making the playoffs??

pdawg81 · Post #4 » by **pdawg81** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 7:17 pm

Lol Knicks have better chance to make playoffs than the Nets?

PopAGat · Post #5 » by **PopAGat** » Thu Jan 24, 2008 8:33 pm

49-33 sounds right. Funny how the Knicks have a higher chance then the Nets in making the playoffs.

Wow ATL is projected to make the playoffs but the Bulls miss it. Bulls seem to be winning games nowadays. I expect them to make the playoffs and the Hawks miss it...yet again.