Is this a fair write-up of Calderon?
Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:03 pm
Hello Raps board! I just wrote a profile of Calderon for the Sonics' board that ended up much longer than I had anticipated, and i was wondering if you guys could tell me if you think it's accurate. Like I say in it, I've seen the Raptors play 4-5 times in the last 5 weeks, so I haven't seen near as much as most of you. I apologize if it seems negative--I don't think of it like that, I just see it as an objective assessment--and I'm not coming here to trash your players. We were talking about throwing a bunch of money or next year's draft pick at the Raps for Calderon, and i thought I would try to give a sense of what he brings to the game, based off of what I know. I wanted to hear if you guys thought it was fair, so that I could correct or modify it accordingly. (I also apologize if you guys are sick to death of analyzing Calderon, as I can imagine you might be.) Anyway here goes, in direct quote:
"We should be careful not to overrate Calderon. I don't know if you guys have seen him play, but they've shown about 4-5 of his games in the last month here, and while he is good and uncannily smart with the ball, his stats don't give the best indication of his game. He plays very very safe--thus his low to's--never drives into traffic and never forces passes. And he's extremely precise with his passes, which he can make on the run and from large distances. He gets assists by finding open guys that many other point guards in the league couldn't, and he can make the game exciting for his teammates and for fans. He's also a very efficient shooter, takes what the defense gives him (although is often reluctant, looking to pass more than shoot).
But you also have to keep in mind several things:
--first, he plays almost the WHOLE game now. His forty minutes stats are equal to his game stats. Sonic great Earl Watson dishes a comparable amount of assists per 40, as does Jamaal Tinsley.
--second, his assists come in bunches, with gaps in between. He seems to have an on/off switch like most scorers, which is normal, but not necessarily something you want in your point guard.
--third, and more importantly, if the shot clock is under 10, Calderon is not good. I would bet that he gets most of his assists within the first 10-2 seconds of the clock, either in transition or at the very start of the half-court set, before the defense has totally clamped down and still lets back door cuts, etc go through. If the defense is sound, Calderon just dribbles around the perimeter--again because he doesn't like to turn the ball over--until he passes to someone who takes a contested 18 footer with 2 seconds left on the clock. He can drive, but in keeping with his very careful, deliberative game, he only does so when there's a clear lane caused by bad defensive rotation (or else in transition). He's not a great pick and roll guy; he has Bosh to pick and roll with, but you rarely see a Nash-Stoudemire easy bucket out of those two. . He can't consistently cross his guy over and drive and kick, he can't get to the free throw line in the half court set, he can't post up his defender to get a 12 foot turn around, and he can't pull up off hard dribble for an 18-footer. Teams might not need this in their pg, but remember that Calderon's low TO numbers come from this reluctance to drive and inability to make something out of nothing, not because he magically coasts through crowded lanes without ever losing the ball. In short, he cannot create something out of nothing--he capitalizes on mistakes and seizes any lane you give him, but if you don't give him anything, he can't be too effective.
--4th, he's not too tall and doesn't move his feet that quickly. He's not tiny, but he plays defense smaller than his size. He's definitely not a defensive asset, but i haven't seen enough of him to say that he's a liability. He doesn't produce many turnovers or pressure the ball very well, and he couldn't stay in front of Chauncey or Rajon Rondo, to use two recent examples I saw. He doesn't like to foul, which can be good, but also doesn't do much on help defense. In short, doesn't give much on defense and will not deter good offensive point guards but probably isn't one of the 5 worst defenders out of starting pgs in the league. (After thought: he doesn't play defense as intelligently as he does offense, unlike Steve Nash, who has trouble staying in front of quicker guys but is frequently in good position to force a bad shot or turnover on help defense, and make smart fouls when they're called for.)
I don't want to damper excitement about him, I just thought that Calderon's stats don't communicate his impact that well. He's good, he will help any team, but everything he does effectively shows up in those stats. Unlike Chauncey with his D, his willingness to take tough shots, and his strong veteran presence, there's nothing else to his game that what you see in the stats. He's very solid, he's certainly a 'true' point guard, and he's unbelievable for fantasy basketball, but I don't think he's the next great point guard in the NBA."
"We should be careful not to overrate Calderon. I don't know if you guys have seen him play, but they've shown about 4-5 of his games in the last month here, and while he is good and uncannily smart with the ball, his stats don't give the best indication of his game. He plays very very safe--thus his low to's--never drives into traffic and never forces passes. And he's extremely precise with his passes, which he can make on the run and from large distances. He gets assists by finding open guys that many other point guards in the league couldn't, and he can make the game exciting for his teammates and for fans. He's also a very efficient shooter, takes what the defense gives him (although is often reluctant, looking to pass more than shoot).
But you also have to keep in mind several things:
--first, he plays almost the WHOLE game now. His forty minutes stats are equal to his game stats. Sonic great Earl Watson dishes a comparable amount of assists per 40, as does Jamaal Tinsley.
--second, his assists come in bunches, with gaps in between. He seems to have an on/off switch like most scorers, which is normal, but not necessarily something you want in your point guard.
--third, and more importantly, if the shot clock is under 10, Calderon is not good. I would bet that he gets most of his assists within the first 10-2 seconds of the clock, either in transition or at the very start of the half-court set, before the defense has totally clamped down and still lets back door cuts, etc go through. If the defense is sound, Calderon just dribbles around the perimeter--again because he doesn't like to turn the ball over--until he passes to someone who takes a contested 18 footer with 2 seconds left on the clock. He can drive, but in keeping with his very careful, deliberative game, he only does so when there's a clear lane caused by bad defensive rotation (or else in transition). He's not a great pick and roll guy; he has Bosh to pick and roll with, but you rarely see a Nash-Stoudemire easy bucket out of those two. . He can't consistently cross his guy over and drive and kick, he can't get to the free throw line in the half court set, he can't post up his defender to get a 12 foot turn around, and he can't pull up off hard dribble for an 18-footer. Teams might not need this in their pg, but remember that Calderon's low TO numbers come from this reluctance to drive and inability to make something out of nothing, not because he magically coasts through crowded lanes without ever losing the ball. In short, he cannot create something out of nothing--he capitalizes on mistakes and seizes any lane you give him, but if you don't give him anything, he can't be too effective.
--4th, he's not too tall and doesn't move his feet that quickly. He's not tiny, but he plays defense smaller than his size. He's definitely not a defensive asset, but i haven't seen enough of him to say that he's a liability. He doesn't produce many turnovers or pressure the ball very well, and he couldn't stay in front of Chauncey or Rajon Rondo, to use two recent examples I saw. He doesn't like to foul, which can be good, but also doesn't do much on help defense. In short, doesn't give much on defense and will not deter good offensive point guards but probably isn't one of the 5 worst defenders out of starting pgs in the league. (After thought: he doesn't play defense as intelligently as he does offense, unlike Steve Nash, who has trouble staying in front of quicker guys but is frequently in good position to force a bad shot or turnover on help defense, and make smart fouls when they're called for.)
I don't want to damper excitement about him, I just thought that Calderon's stats don't communicate his impact that well. He's good, he will help any team, but everything he does effectively shows up in those stats. Unlike Chauncey with his D, his willingness to take tough shots, and his strong veteran presence, there's nothing else to his game that what you see in the stats. He's very solid, he's certainly a 'true' point guard, and he's unbelievable for fantasy basketball, but I don't think he's the next great point guard in the NBA."
