RealGM

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Apologies if this has been posted, however I just saw that Hollingers Playoff Odds have the Raptors at a 20.8% likelihood of making the Finals, and 9.6% to wins it all. Considering the defending East champs are listed at 2.1 and 0.3 respectively, I personally think it's a bit high, but for some odd reaspn...it makes me happy!

As is well known, I am usually one of the staunchest defenders of Hollinger's work.

However, his numbers have lost their minds...the 'playoff predictor' is one of the silliest things going. At least now some of the Western Conference teams have a chance, because at one point last month, the combined championship odds of every Western Conference team was under 10%.

Edit: also enjoyable is that the "Celtics 72-10 Record Alert" remains, despite the fact that they would need to close the season 31-1 for that mark.

I gotta give Hollinger a lot of credit for not manipulating his numbers artificially to avoid these type of insane predictions.

He sets up the formulas, and then presents them, regardless of how accurate or silly they appear to be.

Schadenfreude wrote:As is well known, I am usually one of the staunchest defenders of Hollinger's work.

However, his numbers have lost their minds...the 'playoff predictor' is one of the silliest things going. At least now some of the Western Conference teams have a chance, because at one point last month, the combined championship odds of every Western Conference team was under 10%.

Edit: also enjoyable is that the "Celtics 72-10 Record Alert" remains, despite the fact that they would need to close the season 31-1 for that mark.

lol, that's brutal.

Schadenfreude wrote:Edit: also enjoyable is that the "Celtics 72-10 Record Alert" remains, despite the fact that they would need to close the season 31-1 for that mark.

its still possible. so why not keep it for another week or two? (considering its been going on for quite some time).

Kurtz wrote:I gotta give Hollinger a lot of credit for not manipulating his numbers artificially to avoid these type of insane predictions.

He sets up the formulas, and then presents them, regardless of how accurate or silly they appear to be.

His Finals/championship predictor, IMO, is far too capricious...it's based on the Power Rankings (basically his program plays the rest of the season using the current PRs), and while he states that it regresses to the mean to prevent spikes and valleys, it clearly doesn't do so enough. We're comically high in the Finals/champs columns because we have outscored teams by an average of 11 points in the last 13 (I believe) games...but of course, bludgeoning Milwaukee doesn't mean that we are going to go through San Antonio like a hot knife.

With the Power Rankings, it makes sense to have quite a bit of variation...after all, it's who is hot now. But it's rather silly to have a finals predictor where Detroit's championship likelihood has fallen from 45% to 14.5% in just over a month because they went 13-5 in that stretch, but failed to blow teams out err something.

He is mental... The Raptors are lucky to make it out the 1st round.

The scary thing is he has our worst record at 38 - 44, which would me we go 10 - 21 the rest of the way. We would probably still be fighting for 7/8 spot in the east despite playing that poorly!! Oh well...

According to him we have a better chance of winning the title than San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas

Air Canada wrote:According to him we have a better chance of winning the title than San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas

Which is if you think about it very true.

Teams in the West have a much more difficult path to the finals.

He's pushing it.

I think 5%..MAX.

Air Canada wrote:According to him we have a better chance of winning the title than San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas

That's true though, I mean those teams have to beat each other. In theory we have an easier road to the finals than Pheonix, Dallas and San Antonio. Those guys would have to get through each other to get there

We don't have a 20.8% chance of making it out of the 2nd round, never mind the finals. If we have to face a healthy Pistons in a 7 game series, we have essentially no chance of winning.
Also, Raps have 20.8% chance of making the finals, but the Cavs only 2.1%? That is insane.

Funny, I remember hearing threads about how much Hollinger hated the Raps in the past. And now he likes them way too much.

If he actually had opinions, this would be a hell of a turn of face.

With the team as is, we have less than 20% chance of making it out of 1st round... never mind finals.

Probably same system as that TradeChecker stuff. If we trade all our bad players for nothing we'll by 82-0!

i'd say 10% to make it into the conference finals, at least, the raptors needs to make at least 60% of their shots if they want to beat the elite teams of the east

The raps are probably going to end up playing the Cavs in the first round. If Lebron goes on a scoring spree like he did against detroit last years playoff or like the way he did against the raps a while ago, theres no way the raps can beat them. unless we trade for a solid defender.

Or if Arenas comes back and somehow propels washington, than we can probably play them in the first round. And with caron and antawn becoming all stars, im pretty sure that with arenas back in the lineup, they can be an offensive nightmare.

Illuminati wrote:He is mental... The Raptors are lucky to make it out the 1st round.

Why calling somebody mental. Even if they do not post here it is still a bad thing. Beside, if the "Raptors are lucky to make it out the 1st round" should we call you mental too?

It's just a shame that TJ and Garbo went down.

We'd really be a powerhouse with those two consistently in the lineup.