NBA Landscape 2010/11 and the Raptors

[DarkKnight]

Inspired by thoughts from another thread, I thought I would start this discussion. It seems to me that the Raptors are poised to be one of the undisputed heavyweights in the NBA in 2010/11 (barring enormous injuries, of course). Under contract for that year are Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Kapono, and likely Calderon. As a core of guys, all of whom will be in their prime years (26, 25, 27, 29, 29 respectively), I feel there are few teams that are liekly to be fielding a more formidable core group.

The Blazers come quickly to mind, but who else? Of today's powerhouse teams:

Phoenix - Nash is the key here, and he will be 36 and already has a wonky back. Shaq will also be gone.
Dallas - Kidd will be gone. Dirk will be 32 so he should still be strong, as should Howard (30) and Terry (33), although they will be a little older. Still a very good team out west.
Lakers - Bynum will be just 23, Kobe will be 32, Gasol 30. Definitely strong, with Farmar as well.
Utah - Boozer/Williams, still solid, but not terrifying
New Orleans - West/Paul, see above
San Antonio - Duncan will be 34, ginobili 33. Parker will still be in his prime, but I see them being a step behind, with guys like bowen and finley and horry all likely gone.
Boston - Big 3 all getting older here...Allen 35, Garnett 34, Pierce 33. Likely faltering
Detroit - Billups 34, Rip 32, Prince 30, Rasheed 36...again, older guys likely faltering

Only Orlando and Cleveland (maybe atlanta too....) seem to have big time younger talent, but both seem heavily reliant on one guy and will need to find them some help, esp. cleveland. But I wouldn't be surprised if a kept-together Toronto core was head and shoulders the best of the bunch.

What groups are you looking forward to seeing challenge the raps in a few years?

[ACEarl]

Portland...

[Live Free]

my second fav player and team brandon roy and the portland trailblazers.. even though they're out west that squad has a really big upside

[PopAGat]

Portland....|: Thats one team to fear. For us parker will be 34 and we will have him likely as our backup SG.

[cbosh4mvp]

port

[HaZe123]

Too far away.

[DarkKnight]

Looks like we all had the same idea....I had portland as the one that comes quickest to mind...although they are going to have to pay some of their guys before that happens, so the Cap may be an issue. And Oden is still a question mark. But still, a Roy/Oden/Aldridge/Outlaw group is a scary bunch.

[Blazer_2458]

While i try to be an optimist myself, i think that long term reasoning of this kind is troublesome. The fact of the matter is that the NBA landscape can change from one minute to another (e.g. Celtics) and that re-building/building rarely directly transpires to winning (i.e. Bulls). Furthermore, the jury is still out on whether Bargnani, Ford, and even Calderon (contract year) pan out. Although i think that theres a really good chance for at least one of those players to blossom into an All-star, thinking that all three (or even 2) will well... Also, i think that at a point in time the Raptors management will strongly need to consider a "t-mac effect" were one our pg's and pf's may decide to head for "greener" pastures.

Just my two cents

[DarkKnight]

Too far away.

You could have kept this to yourself, or qualified it with analysis. Speculation is what this board is about, and shifts in the NBa are long-term things. The MLB may have the Marlins win a championship every 4 years and then be the worst team the other 3, but in the NBA things morph slowly.

[DarkKnight]

While i try to be an optimist myself, i think that long term reasoning of this kind is troublesome. The fact of the matter is that the NBA landscape can change from one minute to another (e.g. Celtics) and that re-building/building rarely directly transpires to winning (i.e. Bulls). Furthermore, the jury is still out on whether Bargnani, Ford, and even Calderon (contract year) pan out. Although i think that theres a really good chance for at least one of those players to blossom into an All-star, thinking that all three (or even 2) will well... Also, i think that at a point in time the Raptors management will strongly need to consider a "t-mac effect" were one our pg's and pf's may decide to head for "greener" pastures.

Just my two cents

Good points, all. But I'm not sure I agree on the "Panning out"...ford and calderon have shown enough in their careers that, when healthy, there is a high level of production that can be expected. They don't have to get to all-star level to be formidable, although it's certainly a possibility. Even Bargnani, who could be given the biggest question mark, has shown that when healthy he is going to give you his 15-20 points on reasonable efficiency, and his upside is certainly big.

As for the t-mac effect, the NBA no longer allows this, really, and all those guys are under contract for that year except Calderon, who is an RFA and thus entirely under the raps control.

[HumbleBumbleBee]

Portland needs to make sure they have enough $ to resign some of those guys...anyways its a good situation to be if they play their cards right

[jonny three time]

I expect that by the 2013/14 season, Rick Rubio's Beijing Giants will beat OJ Mayo's Vancouver Supersonics in the finals

[Joker]

Inspired by thoughts from another thread, I thought I would start this discussion. It seems to me that the Raptors are poised to be one of the undisputed heavyweights in the NBA in 2010/11 (barring enormous injuries, of course). Under contract for that year are Bosh, Bargnani, Ford, Kapono, and likely Calderon. As a core of guys, all of whom will be in their prime years (26, 25, 27, 29, 29 respectively), I feel there are few teams that are liekly to be fielding a more formidable core group.

The Blazers come quickly to mind, but who else? Of today's powerhouse teams:

Phoenix - Nash is the key here, and he will be 36 and already has a wonky back. Shaq will also be gone.
Dallas - Kidd will be gone. Dirk will be 32 so he should still be strong, as should Howard (30) and Terry (33), although they will be a little older. Still a very good team out west.
Lakers - Bynum will be just 23, Kobe will be 32, Gasol 30. Definitely strong, with Farmar as well.
Utah - Boozer/Williams, still solid, but not terrifying
New Orleans - West/Paul, see above
San Antonio - Duncan will be 34, ginobili 33. Parker will still be in his prime, but I see them being a step behind, with guys like bowen and finley and horry all likely gone.
Boston - Big 3 all getting older here...Allen 35, Garnett 34, Pierce 33. Likely faltering
Detroit - Billups 34, Rip 32, Prince 30, Rasheed 36...again, older guys likely faltering

Only Orlando and Cleveland (maybe atlanta too....) seem to have big time younger talent, but both seem heavily reliant on one guy and will need to find them some help, esp. cleveland. But I wouldn't be surprised if a kept-together Toronto core was head and shoulders the best of the bunch.

What groups are you looking forward to seeing challenge the raps in a few years?

That's 3 seasons from now.

If somebody 3 seasons ago (the 2004-2005 season) said that in 3 years' time, the Celtics, Lakers, and Hornets will be three of the elite teams, you would've questioned their sanity. All three teams finished up in the lottery that year, if I'm not mistaken.

[DarkKnight]

-= original quote snipped =-



That's 3 seasons from now.

If somebody 3 seasons ago (the 2004-2005 season) said that in 3 years' time, the Celtics, Lakers, and Hornets will be three of the elite teams, you would've questioned their sanity. All three teams finished up in the lottery that year, if I'm not mistaken.

I'm not saying things can't change...i'm saying guys are getting old. I'f i'd told you in 04-05 that the spurs would still be good in 07-08, you'd have agreed. And as good as the celtics or lakers or horents look right now, none of them have won anything. Teams that win the title usually take some time and are built from the ground up (save perhaps the heat anomaly). Spurs, Pistons, Lakers...you could see these teams coming in advance.

[Parasight]

The league is too spastic, this season has been solid proof of this. Things adjust accordingly and cores can easily demolish (Bulls anyone?). Quite frankly, a team like Raptors and Portland have about as much promise in 3-5 years as a team like the Bobcats or Seattle.

[Joker]

-= original quote snipped =-



I'm not saying things can't change...i'm saying guys are getting old. I'f i'd told you in 04-05 that the spurs would still be good in 07-08, you'd have agreed. And as good as the celtics or lakers or horents look right now, none of them have won anything. Teams that win the title usually take some time and are built from the ground up (save perhaps the heat anomaly). Spurs, Pistons, Lakers...you could see these teams coming in advance.

The Pistons were in the lottery in 2001. In 2004, 3 seasons later, they won the championship.

So if you are using the Pistons as an example, then teams that are currently lottery bound could then conceivably win the title 3 years from now.

The same is true for the Lakers. They were in the lottery in 2005, 3 seasons later, they are poised to compete for a championship.

[DarkKnight]

-= original quote snipped =-



The Pistons were in the lottery in 2001. In 2004, 3 seasons later, they won the championship.

So if you are using the Pistons as an example, then teams that are currently lottery bound could then conceivably win the title 3 years from now.

The same is true for the Lakers. They were in the lottery in 2005, 3 seasons later, they are poised to compete for a championship.

I am saying exactly that, yes. Teams like portland, charlotte, atlanta, etc all have good young cores. The point of this thread is to discuss which teams could be very good in that time frame, regardless of where they finish now.

[A_wildstabatanything]

I'm not sold on this team yet. Colangelo still has to make one or two significant moves and without knowing what those will be it's extremely difficult to forecast the team's future.

This team may be in position to take those steps towards becoming a contender but nothing is certain. We spent four years in the lottery and don't have a lot to show for it... that could come back to haunt us too.

[wade2bosh]

Portland
Utah
LA
NO

and some old teams in the west

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

isn't 10/11 pretty far off to be looking. Look how much the landscape has changed this year alone. Look, New York sucks right now, they won't always. With a team willing to spend and an attractive market for FA's we should not expect them to suck forever. We should revel in their down period. New Jersey just got younger and these teams that suck now will have high draft picks so in 3-4 years, they could have "program changers." Also when is Bosh's contract up around that time?

Now I'm not for taking a big shot at the wrong time and screwing yourself, but some of you guys are dreaming too far ahead. but who cares, worst that can happen is you'll waste time, so on second thoughts fill your boots.