Maybe Rudy Gay Isn't as Bad as We Think?

[Crunch 99]

can we get him (Hardy) to start fielding uncomfortable questions concerning why in the h3ll Rudy Gay is getting regular minutes? lol (The only guess I have that makes any level of sense is they are praying Gay does something to give himself trade value ...but that's not looking good.)

(I wrote this morning before seeing the Deseret News article that Zero just posted, which with my brief scan, appears to bring forth some different, positive Gay stats. I've been watching Gay's plus minus stats and lineup stats all season long, and was initially going to wait 'till after the mid season, 41 game to post them, but since we are all talking about Gay now, here they are.)

Rudy Gay has the lowest TS% in the entire NBA for regular rotation players, and he looks like an old man playing among athletes in their primes, but there are a plethora of stats that contradict observations that he is a total loser as a bench, rotation player.

I am only including regular Jazz rotation players in the stats below, including NAW and THT.

Rudy Gay has the highest Jazz plus-minus/game at +4.4 pts/game, Markannen is number 2 at +3 pts/game and Kessler number three at 1.8 pts/game. Rudy Gay has the highest plus-minus/min by a big margin at +0.29 pts/min. Next highest is Walker Kessler at +0.10 pts/min and Markkanen at +0.09/min.

Rudy Gay has the best defensive rating on the Jazz at NBA.com by a wide margin at 100. Next is Kessler at 107.5 and THT at 107.6.

Rudy Gay shows up in our best 2 man, 3 man, 4 man and 5 man lineups for plus/minus points per game --- three lineups deep in every single lineup category:

Best 2 man lineups: Gay-THT at +4.5 pts/game, Gay-Beasley at +4.4 pts/game and Gay-Kessler at +3.7 pts/game.

Best 3 man lineups: Gay-Sexton-Naw at +6 pts/game, Gay-Clarkson-THT at +5.5 pts/game and Gay-THT-Kessler at +4.4 pts/game.

Best 4 man lineups: Gay-Beasley-Sexton-Naw at +8 pts/game, Gay-Clarkson-THT-Kessler at + 7.8 pts/game and Gay-Clarkson-Beasley-THT at +5.8 pts/game.

Best 5 man lineups: Gay-Clarkson-Beasley-THT-Kessler at +7.8 pts/game, Gay-Beasley-Sexton-Naw-Kessler at +6/game, Gay-Conley-Beasley-Markkanen-Kessler at +6/game and Olynyk-Clarkson-Beasley-Sexton-Kessler at +6/game.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/traditional?GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612762&dir=D&slug=traditional&sort=PLUS_MINUS

This data is either more evidence for the uselessness of plus/minus stats, or maybe Rudy Gay is doing a few things right. When Rudy Gay appears in 12 of 12 top 2,3,4 and 5 man lineups, three lineups deep per category, it is hard for me to conclude that he is all bad. Also, the first time I looked at lineups, I expected to find clear evidence that Walker Kessler is carrying Rudy Gay, but didn't really find that, though Kessler is clearly a positive factor.

Comments?

[Crunch 99]

Off Rudy Gay topic: Given our defensive woes recently, the above data makes me wonder if we shouldn't be resurrecting THT for some spot minutes off the bench from time to time, his low shooting % notwithstanding.

[Inigo Montoya]

Speaking for myself, I really dislike the +/- stat and I don't use it even when it could help my arguments. I think it is a flawed stat and I put no stock in it.

As for Gay, I think everyone can agree that he has been really bad. The +/- stat is not changing my mind. Can anyone explain what is this magical thing that Gay is doing that causes him to have the best +/- on the team, and why should I dismiss pretty much all other stats that say he's been very bad and give more importance to his +/-?

Should we keep playing him and not try to trade him because he has a good +/-? Hey, his +/- is the best on the team, maybe we should play him more minutes? Maybe we should give him an extension too?

[zero24gravity]

(Crunch, thanks for moving this over here. Didn't mean to hijack the Lauri thread with Rudy Gay talk.)


I'm a data person. I believe in the numbers, science, info, facts, etc..

But this is just baffling to me! lol

I watch all the games. I see Rudy looking as lost as a 19 year old rookie on the floor. I see his man blowing by him. I see him bricking shot after shot (34% FG, 21% 3's, and shoots more than half his shots from deep. Yuck!). Team worst (by far) 40.1% effective FG%. Team worst offensive winshares, worst overall winshares for rotation players (Bolmaro is worse). There are also other advances stats that show he's the worst on the team. I see him not getting any rebounds that don't just land in his lap. I see him not making the right pass (0.7 apg for a guy who can't make a shot. Ugh!). So how is there data out there that shows he's a positive impact player? I'm perplexed! Everything I know makes no sense. My world is upside down! Help!

As far as the aforementioned Deseret News article I posted in the other thread. ... the idea that coach is playing Gay so he isn't a locker room issue, is a terrible take. If he's that toxic, then he's being a fake "vet leader" and the team doesn't need that kind of mojo, IMO. Dude shouldn't only be showing up and being a mentor, if he's given minutes he doesn't deserve. How does that show the young guys how things are "supposed to be done"?

https://www.deseret.com/2023/1/4/23481149/utah-jazz-rudy-gay-getting-minutes-but-why

[FranchisePlayer]

He averages 15 mins. per game against opponents bench. His stats would probably look a whole lot different against upper echelon players? He hasn't passed my eye test for a long time.

I try to see myself as a guy who cuts some slack but I really don't see any future for him with the Jazz. It isn't about being bad necessarily but if he at age 36 doesn't bring leadership and maturity on the court and he isn't a locker room guy the pups look up to, what is the purpose of having him in the line-up? Let the kids have his minutes.

[AingesBurner]

I am not pro Rudy Gay but I will play devils advocate for him.

1. He was signed to a team that said he would get a lot of playing time. Have you ever been promised something at work by your boss, and then you always are chasing that carrot and it never comes to fruition? I am doing that now and not currently happy or trying be positive in my current work culture.
2. Joe Johnson said playing for Utah was one of his best experiences in the league. Rudy Gay was probably expecting the culture JJ talked about for his twilight years.
3. He came here to compete as that last piece and Utahs culture imploded due to a selfish star, which ruined their chances. That would be frustrating to say the least.
4.This years team probably has better culture and a coach who values some of his play.
5. If we do want to trade him, we have to play him, and his +/- might make that happen.

[TNJazz]

Good points, number 3 is especially poignant...