Out of the 9 young players on the Jazz's roster, what probabilities would you give of being average or better starters?

[HadAnEffectHere]

The 9

Kyle Filipowski
Isaiah Collier
Cody Williams
Brice Sensabaugh
Keyonte George
Taylor Hendricks
Walker Kessler
Johnny Juzang
Darius Bazley

Mine are:

Kyle: 10%
Collier: 20%
Cody Williams: 20%
Sensabaugh: 3%
George: 20%
Hendricks: 20%
Kessler: 35%
Juzang: <1%
Bazley: <1%

[babyjax13]

Kyle Filipowski - 10%
Isaiah Collier - 30%
Cody Williams - 40%
Brice Sensabaugh - 30%
Keyonte George - 40% (average or better at point guard is extremely hard - does not mean he won't be impactful)
Taylor Hendricks - 50%
Walker Kessler - 100% (think he already is)
Johnny Juzang - 0%
Darius Bazley - 0%

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sensabaugh at 30% seems incredibly aggressive, I think he's pretty clearly headed out of the NBA within two years.

[AingesBurner]

These numbers are not based on reality and I’m skeptical of any evidence that you could provide stating otherwise.

[Rauxcee]

Right now Kessler, George, and maybe Collier look like the only ones capable of being starters. And there are some questions even with those 3.

Brice is destined for g-league superstardom. Hendricks looks nice defensively, but if he can't figure out how to shoot he better develop as an elite defender or he's in trouble.

Williams and Fillipowski can go either way. Too soon to judge too soon, they have a lot of development needed (technically all 9 do).

[stitches]

Kyle Filipowski - 5%
Isaiah Collier - 10%
Cody Williams - 35%
Brice Sensabaugh - 1%
Keyonte George - 25%
Taylor Hendricks - 10%
Walker Kessler - 20%
Johnny Juzang - 1%
Darius Bazley - 0%

[babyjax13]

Sensabaugh at 30% seems incredibly aggressive, I think he's pretty clearly headed out of the NBA within two years.

It wouldn't surprise me. He's a guy where I feel like either the scoring package really becomes effective as his body develops and he's a starting caliber player, or he's out of the league. I really was not high on him and still am not, but I think there is a world where he is Norman Powell.

[bkohler]

Kyle Filipowski - 3% ( I can see him being a quality bench piece, but a good starter feels outside of his probable outcomes)
Isaiah Collier - 20% (His size and shooting combine seem to be the thing that stops me from thinking he could be a good or average starter, but this is the bet he can figure out his shooting.)
Cody Williams - 45% (He's got all the tools, but I think the motor keeps him from being a star; lack of motor plus the tools still seems like he tops out as an average starter).
Brice Sensabaugh—15% (He's got boom potential. You see flashes of passing and shooting, but can he learn to defend at a high enough level?).
Keyonte George - 75% (I think there's a decent chance he's there this year. It's really about percentages but if he can draw fouls at the level he's been doing in summer league I think he's already at average starter level.)
Taylor Hendricks - 40% (His tools are just so good that it's easy for me to see him being an average starter for a long time. It's going to take some serious growth to go beyond that.)
Walker Kessler - 100% (If you go off his rookie season, he's already above average, probably good. If you go off of last year I think he's right at average level)
Johnny Juzang - 15% (Shoot just matters so much, he brings it and I think that gives him a decent chance at getting to average.)
Darius Bazley - 5% (I think he's going to be a good role player and have a decent career, it just feels like his shot hasn't improved and without it getting better he's not hitting average starter level)

Looking at some of the percentages, I think some of us are conflating average starters with near-star levels. If you break down players that started last year by VORP the avg is 1.7. Walker Kessler was a 1.1 for instance, not far off from being avg. By BPM the average is .88 and Walker was a .9. By PER the avg was 16.54, Walker was 18. By win shares average is 3.37 and Kessler is 4.1. by ws/48 avg is 0.122, Kessler is .131.

By basically every metric Kessler is above average and that's the landscape here. Now if we're talking really good starter... say +2.5 VORP (basically Lauri) then the percentages change drastically.

(Edit: Also found it interesting looking at all of these that Keyonte despite looking the best to the eye test actually is one of the lowest of this group by all of those catch all statistics.)

[Jammer]

The original poster asks for probabilities of being an AVERAGE or Better STARTER (not a rotation player, meaning backup, and not a marginal starter). So, you're really saying a TOP 15-16 Player at PG, SG, SF, PF or C. Okey-Dokey.

Kyle Filipowski: 3%
Isaiah Collier: 2%
Cody Williams: 30%
Brice Sensabaugh: 0%
Keyonte George: 40%
Taylor Hendricks: 30%
Walker Kessler: 80%
Johnny Juzang: 20%
Darius Bazley: 0%

[bkohler]

So, you're really saying a TOP 15-16 Player at PG, SG, SF, PF or C.

I think that’s a fair way to look at it. Although I still like looking at the catch all stats of only starters and comparing that way.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Isn't top 15 at any position a better than average starter? Wouldn't an average starter be just that, a starter?

If that is the case, I think Cody Williams certainly could be an average starter, and perhaps be a better than average starter.
I think Hendricks could be an average starter, but question whether he will be better than average.
Kessler and Keyonte are already average to lower than average starters, but I wonder if either will end up being better than average.

The others are pretty questionable.

[BigJimFinn]

Collier: 10%
Cody: 45%
Sensei: 5%
Keyonte: 25%
Hendricks: 40%
Kessler: 75 % (about there already, accepting that many teams start a trad 5 but close without one)
Lofton: 2% (my choice for a long shot)
Fuhgeddabout the rest.

[Catchall]

The guys who should be average or better starters are (in order) Cody Williams, Keyonte George and Taylor Hendricks. However, all three of these guys might be considered a couple years of development away.

In the case of Hendricks, being a solid starter is probably his ceiling.

With Keyonte, it's just a question of his consistency. Can he shoot 38% on 3PAs, can he get 5 FTAs/night, etc.? However, I still don't think of him as a lead guard. He's a combo.

You can consider Kessler a potential starter depending on what you want your center to do. However, I think you'd have to consider him below-average currently.