Where Do We Stand?

[gojazzmjsucks]

You got the Lakers talkin Artest for Odom which makes them better.Then you got the Rockets with mr I score 40 in summer league{Donte Greene}and Brent Barry.The Rockets say they are not done!I can see us passing the Spurs,but maybe not.

What I'm asking is do we need to do something to move up in the West or can we get better off our D-will and Booz duo playing for team USA?Its not like the Rockets are making big moves but they are getting better!The Lakers will be right back,and even though we own Crissy Paul will we have a better record then the Hornets?I just don't know if staying put is how we get homecourt in a couple rounds of the playoffs.

[BiggMann]

guess we'll see.

but none of those teams "Scare" me. We've got a competitive roster, and I feel totally comfortable with that roster no changes are needed for us to compete. We've got a young squad, and if we can learn to win on the road we are a 1-2 seed.

[d-will8]

The West will certainly be very tough once again next year. The Lakers will be even better, the Rockets will be a contender if Yao and T-Mac stay healthy, the Hornets will be very good again, and the Spurs will still be tough, even if they are on the decline. However, we have a good enough team to contend for the conference championship without making any changes. Like BiggMann said, if we can just start winning on the road, which basically just means taking bad teams seriously, we'd easily get homecourt advantage, probably a 1-3 seed. In the playoffs, if we can get all four of our big-money players playing well at the same time and solid contributions from our role players, we can beat anybody.

[bsutefan]

The Rockets are a serious threat to make noise in the playoffs (as in years past) IF they can stay healthy. Count Ming out of about 20 games, and McGrady out of another 20. They'll finish in the 4-5 seed range, and as soon as they get a matchup against someone other than us they might just win.

The Lakers are going to be better automatically based on the fact that Bynum is back. The good news is Miami has jumped into the Artest sweepstakes, and in terms of what deal is most likely, Miami makes more sense. It isn't often a team trades a star player to the same conference, let alone the same division. If Sacramento sent Artest to LAL, they're basically giving the Lakers the division title for the next 5 years. Artest to Miami makes much more sense. Nonetheless, the Lakers are unfortunately the favorite again out of the West.

The key to the NOH is Peja. Two years ago NO came out smoking, and Peja went down for the season. After Peja went down they lacked the offensive firepower to stay competitive. With Peja healthy, they can beat anybody in the West.

Given full health for everyone, I expect the rankings next year to look like this:
1. LA Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Utah Jazz
4. New Orleans Hornets
5. Houston Rockets
6. Phoenix Suns
7. Portland Trailblazers
8. Dallas Mavericks

Round 2:
1. LA Lakers
4. Houston Rockets

2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Utah Jazz

Conference Finals:
1. LA Lakers
3. Utah Jazz

NBA Finals:
3. Utah Jazz
1. Boston Celtics

NBA Champions:
UTAH JAZZ

I truly believe that if Memo has no achilles problems, Boozer has no back problems, DWill is at full strength, and another year under their belts, no team will beat us in a 7 game series.

[BiggMann]

I truly believe that if Memo has no achilles problems, Boozer has no back problems, DWill is at full strength, and another year under their belts, no team will beat us in a 7 game series.

So basically if nothing goes wrong.

..that's fantasy land. something is going to go wrong, but it's how we react that will determine our playoff seeding and success.

No moves are necessary to be a contender, just need to add a little heart.

[hoops4life]

wrong with the big 3 or atleast lingering injuries. If one misses a game here and there that shouldn't be too bad.

[bsutefan]

Obviously there are injuries every season, to every team. But when you're analyzing quality of team, you do so under the assumption the team will be at full health. To try and predict injuries, and predict trades would be foolish.

[russ1]

I think the jazz could continueto improve with the current roster if two things change. The jazz need to learn to win on the road, and make the commitment to a consistent effort on defense. The road wins will come with experience, but will everyone buy into playing the type of defense that is often associated with championship level teams? Only time will tell.

[erudite23]

People forget, but this was one of the 5 youngest teams in the league last season. Let that sink in.

Once we get more experience under our belts, and maybe tweak the roster a weeee bit, we will be right there at the front of the pack.

Right now, we are as good an offensive team as there is in the league. We have two excellent crunch time scorers in Memo and Deron, and another potent scoring weapon in Carlos Boozer. We rebound the ball as well as anyone--even after a down year like last season where we only finished t-3rd--and we pass the ball as well as anyone. Our offense is set, and so is our clutch-situations pecking order. Offensively, we are championship caliber.....and getting better.


The questions, as we have gone over endlessly since the season ended, are on the defensive side of the ball. Boozer is central to these questions in most people's minds, and Memo plays a part as well.

But I would like to touch on an issue that I covered in passing in a different thread, that being the fact that our biggest defensive weakness last year was in covering the wing. The Brewer/Korver duo was our weakest lind, and allowed a SG PER that rnaked 23rd in the league. SF was only average as we ranked 13th, iirc. Besides that, our 1, 4, and 5 defense was superb.

Ronnie Brewer, most agree, has pracitically limitless potential as a defender, but he is still allowing a lot of plays to be made because of his mental breakdowns. So here is a proposal for you: if all we do is make a marked improvement at defending the wings--while holding strong at the other 3 positions--would that not make us a top 5 defense? Ronnie Brewer (or CJ or Mo) then becomes the key to our off-season, which is terrific because the dude is bound to come out next year as a much better/smarter/more experienced player. If my premise is accurate, this question becomes: Is Ronnie ready to make a defensive leap?

If the answer to that question is "yes", we are then neck-and-neck with any team in the league as the favorites to win it all. If not.....we are still in the mix. People forget or just plain don't give a ****, but according to nearly every advanced statistical method of ranking NBA teams, the Jazz were right there with the Lakers as the 2nd best team in the NBA this season (Boston was waaay out in front, of course). Considering that the 1st ranked team by these same methods won the Finals, and the 2nd (or 3rd) ranked team lost to them in said 'chip, and the 3rd(or 2nd) ranked team gave the 2nd (or3rd) ranked team its best challenge in the playoffs.....isn't it reasonable to assume that we are in the mix for best in the league? I would think so....

[Pappyman]

I think the jazz could continue to improve with the current roster if two things change. The jazz need to learn to win on the road, and make the commitment to a consistent effort on defense. The road wins will come with experience, but will everyone buy into playing the type of defense that is often associated with championship level teams? Only time will tell.

They did win on the road. The only reason they were seven games under .500 was because of ONE bad month. Most of their games were on the road in December. They were also dealing with the Gordan Giricek fiasco and were not united enough as a team. When they traded for Korver, they became a much better road team. Before Korver, they were 6-15 on the road. By the end of the season, they were 17-24. That means they finished the season 11-9, which is not half bad. If the Jazz continue to be as dominant at home as they are with nearly or just above .500 record on the road, they would be the number one seed in the conference. If they would have had a .500 record on the road last season (21-20), they would have finished 58-24. That would have been the best record in the Western Conference and Utah would have had home court advantage until the NBA finals.

[babyjax13]

But I would like to touch on an issue that I covered in passing in a different thread, that being the fact that our biggest defensive weakness last year was in covering the wing. The Brewer/Korver duo was our weakest lind, and allowed a SG PER that rnaked 23rd in the league. SF was only average as we ranked 13th, iirc. Besides that, our 1, 4, and 5 defense was superb.

Tell me when you were flat-out impressed by our interior defense with Okur and Boozer in the game. The reason why we were so good on the interior is because all of their backups are good defenders, and because they are getting so much help defensively.

Part of our problem with our exterior defense though is the fact that Brewer is always having to rotate down to help out Carlos or Memo. With the amount of good offensive Big-men in the league it's no surprise that it would happen, but it seems that Brewer has to rotate almost every play. I think that if we ran a zone defense a little bit more we could allow Andrei to roam in the paint on D, and help out Memo and Booze. As long as they can get a hand up Andrei can get there in time to disturb shots. It would also allow Brewer to play the passing lanes, which we all know he's good at. Just that little change could net us 2 or 3 games.

The next big question is how Boozer is going to respond after a rough stretch in the playoffs. He's definitely good enough to dominate a game offensively, but he still plays defense like a rookie. I think if Boozer can just maintain proper spacing, and remember to box-out he will solve most of his problems. Hopefully he can work on it in the Olympics (he's going to have to with the caliber of power forwards invited).

They did win on the road. The only reason they were seven games under .500 was because of ONE bad month. Most of their games were on the road in December.

Great teams don't have bad months, and great teams don't get beaten by most of the lottery teams in the NBA. Say what you will, but losing to Memphis, New York, and Minnesota (twice), is not a good sign at all. If they had been in every game it would be different, but some of those losses were inexcusable.

[Catchall]

We need to develop more mental toughness. That's what separates good teams from great. Some players have it. Some don't. Maybe it comes with age. Maybe not. I wouldn't mind seeing the Jazz get someone in who helps set the tone defensively and competitively. That's what I think a Gerald Wallace type player could do. Hopefully, Boozer and Kirilenko take steps in that direction now that we're expected to win.

[erudite23]

But I would like to touch on an issue that I covered in passing in a different thread, that being the fact that our biggest defensive weakness last year was in covering the wing. The Brewer/Korver duo was our weakest lind, and allowed a SG PER that rnaked 23rd in the league. SF was only average as we ranked 13th, iirc. Besides that, our 1, 4, and 5 defense was superb.

Tell me when you were flat-out impressed by our interior defense with Okur and Boozer in the game. The reason why we were so good on the interior is because all of their backups are good defenders, and because they are getting so much help defensively.

There have been a few times. Notably in the second home San Antonio game, when we were giving Duncan some serious problems and they couldn't manage anything inside.

There were a few other games as well, but I can't remember the specifics of them.....but, yeah, I get your point, and its well taken. Often times we look porous and give up buckets too easily on the inside. Sure....but if we were getting KILLED--as the perception on this board says we are--it would show up noticeably on the stat sheet, and that shows up in PER. Sure, we may not be tip top...but we can't be THAT bad unless you argue that PER is an incredibly bad way of player measurement (which it isn't). Its that simple.

Part of our problem with our exterior defense though is the fact that Brewer is always having to rotate down to help out Carlos or Memo. With the amount of good offensive Big-men in the league it's no surprise that it would happen, but it seems that Brewer has to rotate almost every play. I think that if we ran a zone defense a little bit more we could allow Andrei to roam in the paint on D, and help out Memo and Booze. As long as they can get a hand up Andrei can get there in time to disturb shots. It would also allow Brewer to play the passing lanes, which we all know he's good at. Just that little change could net us 2 or 3 games.

Sure, rotation is part of it, but ask this: why do we guard SFs fairly well (13th overall) and yet we guard SGs horribly? In our scheme, the 2 and 3 are perfectly interchangeably both offensively and defensively. The coaching staff has said so plenty of times. Therefore, if scheme is the reason for us being so bad on the perimeter, then we would be roughly as bad against 2s and 3s. But that's not the case. Therefore it be the players in the scheme, namely the combo of Korver and Brewer.

Additionally, the issue of rotating and helping down low fits right into the common sense problem with Ronnie, which is this: he doesn't think the game well yet. It doesn't take a lot of savvy and intelligence in order to just guard the guy you are on man to man when he has the ball. The cerebral aspect of the game comes into play when you have to make switches, account for schematic or tactical assignments on the fly and try to cover up for a teammate who has been beaten. Ronnie is legitimately horrible at this part of the game--as most agree--and its a perfect explanation for the allowed PER for SGs. With a team that helps and rotates as much as we do, it would make sense that having a player who struggles to think the game in that manner severely hurts our defensive production, and that it is therefore born out on the stat sheet.

Finally, while I understand that wings are the primary beneficiary of our help-heavy scheme, our PGs do a ton of it as well, and Deron still posted an excellent defensive rating. It can't all be that.

In fact, this is the best evidence yet that Troy's "Brewer is NOT a good defender" thread might have been on spot.

The next big question is how Boozer is going to respond after a rough stretch in the playoffs. He's definitely good enough to dominate a game offensively, but he still plays defense like a rookie. I think if Boozer can just maintain proper spacing, and remember to box-out he will solve most of his problems. Hopefully he can work on it in the Olympics (he's going to have to with the caliber of power forwards invited).

Not sure if you mean "how will he respond after the extended rough stretch of the 08 playoffs" or "is he capable of responding to adversity in the playoffs". But he has shown his ability to respond already during the '07 playoffs when he had a horrible Game 1 against Houston and came back with a dominant Game 2. The dude is wired for it, let there be no mistake. People need a refresher of how he performed in 07. The guy was tough minded, resilient, and clutch. The talk after last playoffs was "Ok, we know Deron and Boozer are bankable, but what about everyone else". Now, its as if that never happened and all anyone can remember is him bricking jumpers, getting stuffed under the back board, and waving his arms helplessly as Lamar Odom blows by him for a layup. I don't get it.

Great teams don't have bad months, and great teams don't get beaten by most of the lottery teams in the NBA. Say what you will, but losing to Memphis, New York, and Minnesota (twice), is not a good sign at all. If they had been in every game it would be different, but some of those losses were inexcusable.

Agreed. That month was inexcusable for last season...but there is cause to believe that, moving forward, we won't see anything that bad ever again. SA has had bad months in years where they won the 'chip, and the Lakers regularly took two or three months to round into shape during the Shaq/Kobe days, so its not like you can say that a bad month dooms a team from winning it all, but a stretch of losses like that one should never be seen in these parts again until we are back to being lottery fodder.

[carrottop12]

I would love for the Lakers to trade for Artest, he's an idiot and he would make them a worse team. No doubt in my mind.

The Rockets are still to injury prone with their big two to be a real threat, and the Spurs are aging.

The Jazz standing pat are at least the 3 best team in the West I believe.

[jazzrock]

Artest does not make the Lakers better. He is a cancer that will never ever win in this league. He breaks up that team chemistry way too much for them to win. With this, the Lakers slide out of the 1 spot. Look for that to go to NO or Utah. The Spurs are getting a year older but will still contend. And Houston made a few moves last year too. Look where that got em. Same place it has got a T Mac led team every year.

Utah should and will stand pat. We have a great team that was on the verge of being excellent. Coulda Shoulda Woulda but think about what coulda been if we won game 5......

We need to worry about how to convince Boozer that he will be a legend if he stays in Utah with D Will as his 1-2 punch. That should be our only concern. We are young and will still be one of the better teams in the league this year without any moves. And this is coming from someone who is very pessimistic!

1st place in the west will be a race between NO, Utah, SA, and LA if they dont trade for Artest.

[DEEP3CL]

Artest does not make the Lakers better. He breaks up that team chemistry way too much for them to win. With this, the Lakers slide out of the 1 spot.
1st place in the west will be a race between NO, Utah, SA, and LA if they don't trade for Artest.

Well first off all the Artest stuff has been just speculation so far,most of our fan base is 50/50 on the deal anyway. But you do realize that every team Artest has been on has improved or won a good clip of their games.

I have to disagree with you on him " not make the Lakers better.", for one he fills a need we have for a defensive minded wing man. Second it would take the load off Kobe having to guard the other teams best guy. On top of that we have two guys with strong personalities in Phil and Kobe that wouldn't even let him wreck our locker room. I agree with your teams you picked for the race in the West, but I wonder about the Spurs, they lack the depth you need to excel in the playoffs. Also you can't run from the fact that they're old at key positions.

Aside from that we'll just have to wait and see what happens, the Lakers trading for Artest is what we need in my opinion.

[Pai Gow]

Yeah, an Artest/Odom swap would be great for us. Artest isn't nearly the skilled offensive player that Odom can be when he is focused (like he was against us). I'd say we match up a lot better with the Lakers if that trade went down.

[Rox_Nix_Nox]

If we got that trade....man.. Who would guard Bynum or Pau. 6'7 Boozer? Okur?

Artest with harping right. But then who's facing up with Kobe? Haha

Jazz are a good team. I think you'll be much better than san antonio

[JStockLivesOn]

"Who would guard Bynum or Pau?" The same people who's guarding them now. This trade doesn't change anything at the 4 or 5 defensively.

As for Kobe, it doesn't matter who we put on him. They'll get shredded until Kobe's productivity begins to drop off 4 or so years from now.