Western Conference competition

[sendai91]

With all of the changes in the offseason, and assuming that there aren't any other major trades and signings, here are my thoughts about the upcoming year for all of the teams in the conference.

Lakers (57-25), projected 62-20 - Kobe's ticked for getting embarrassed in the Finals, a full year of Bynum and Gasol together is pretty scary. If Farmar develops at all, or if Fisher can shoot this year like he did last year watch out..

Hornets (56-26), projected 55-27 - Paul is amazing, but MoPete is a bust so far, and losing Pargo hurts more than they realize. Not a lot of bench depth at all on this squad. Getting Posey doesn't hurt, but they overpaid for him..

Spurs (56-26), projected 52-30 - Age will take a toll on Duncan and some of the older reserves. Not much to get excited about with their free agency and draft pick-ups. Still, Duncan is an all-time top 10-15 player, Manu is exhilirating to watch and Pop is perenially underrated as a coach.

Jazz (54-28), projected 55-27 - Brevin Knight and Koufos are together worth one more win. They won't be as incredible as they were during the latter half of the season, or as inept as they were in December. Expect Deron Williams to be in the top 6 in MVP votes.

Houston 55-27, projected 57-25 - If Yao and McGrady are healthy and Artest behaves, this could be the most dangerous team in the conference. Lots of ifs there, but Artest is a risk Houston had to take. I don't want to draw them again in the first round at any cost.

Phoenix 55-27, projected 50-32 - Shaq is going to miss at least 10 games. Hill and to a lesser degree Raja Bell are starting to show their age. The Suns will be fighting with Dallas, the Clippers and Portland for the last couple of playoff spots.

Dallas 51-31, projected 47-35 - Kidd was not a wise pick-up, nor was spending tons of money and Dampier and Diop. Howard seems more volatile than ever, this is a team that could go to the Western Conference finals if everything gels, but is more likely to be a playoff bubble team.

Denver 50-32, projected 45-37 - Dumb move #1 - Dumping Camby for nothing, dumb move #2 - Paying AI crazy money that ruins their caproom and dumb move #3 - trusting Carmelo with the keys to the car. Barring a mid-season trade that dramatically improves their team, don't expect to see most of this cast (AI, George Karl and others..) back in Denver in 2010.

Warriors 48-34 projected 43-39, losing Baron really, really hurts the character and makeup of this team. Maggette is a nice pick-up, but he doesn't play the 1. Marcus Williams as the only true pg on this roster? - Yikes.

Portland 41-41, projected 48-34 - yes, their opening schedule is brutal, and yes they are painfully young. They'll still finish well behind the Jazz, but this team will regularly beat the Dallas / Denver / Phoenix / GSW teams. With 2/3 of the talent and depth they have now, they beat the Jazz 3 of 4 times last year. Bayless and Fernandez? Good. Oden? Very good. Playoff chances and the chance to make some noise? Very, very good.

Sacramento 38-44, projected 30-52, just not much here to get excited about. Kevin Martin is a fine player but the Kings fans deserve a better lineup than this.

LA Clippers 23-59, projected 39-43, they will likely miss the playoffs still, but definite improvement in Clipperland evident. This is a weirdly constructed team - Kaman and Camby on the same roster??, but Baron brings instant marketability, and Gordon and Thornton's development may be fun to watch.

Minnesota 22-60 - Ehhh. Projection? Probably a little worse 20-62.

Memphis 22-60, projected 25-57, this may be an interesting team with some young talent in Mayo, Gay, Darko and younger brother Gasol but nowhere nearly enough competitive in this conference.

Seattle 20-62, projected 20-62. Durant and Green might be electric, and the fanbase will love them, but Westbrook doesn't really impress me, and heaven help us if they are named the Wind or something equally putrid. I can live with Barons and maybe the Thunder.

[Ming Kong!]

Don't you mean OKC?

Houston is very lucky that Yao survived the Olympics at about 70%. Yao and McGrady are going to miss games, but either way I can see them getting 60 wins IF Artest doesn't mess up.

If Lakers core is relatively healthy, LA can definitely get some 65+ wins.

[fivas14]

Utah will not have another month like December, they'll increase their wins by 4 or 5.

[carrottop12]

There is honestly no reason the Jazz shouldn't be the best in the West this year. Other then the Lakers I think the Jazz are clearly the best team, and with another year of chemistry behind them, plus Korver, and Knight for a full year, I really expect the Jazz to kick ass.

[bsutefan]

Nice work.

Interesting to note that you have the western conference record at 648-582 (regular season)...which means the eastern conference would have to be 582-648. Thats a western conference win% of 53%. At first glance I thought that seemed low in comparison to how dominant the west is over the east...but after looking at last year, that is the exact same record both conferences had last season.

Impressive work.

[Duiz]

I really hope indeed that Utah doesn't lay another egg in december.. that was just (Please Use More Appropriate Word) last year.

[Racer X]

1) Jazz - Why the hell not? Homer glasses firmly in place. I just love this team. Deron Williams is my King. The problem has been that this team has never gotten all of their cylinders firing at the same time. If Deron, Booze, AK, Memo, and Korver all play well at the same time . . . we are unbeatable.

2) Lakers - Damn them and their unfair purchase of Pau Gasol. We will see how Gasol and Bynum mesh together.

3) Spurs - Seem to always be there.

4) Blazers - **** you. I think they are going to be scary good in the next few years, and it starts now.

5) Hornets - Losing Pargo is going to hurt big time. He has hurt us more than CP3 in almost every game we have played against them. Peja's going to drop off in his production. Posey doesnt scare me.

6) Rockets - They are like a barrel full of gun powder. One spark and they are done.

7) Suns - Getting old and slow. No D'Antoni to manage them is going to be a big deal.

8) Dallas - I am a much bigger fan of Harris than of Kidd at this point. I dont think he gave them a better chance to win LAST YEAR.

9) Clippers - I think this team has a chance to be okay. I am big Al Thorton fan. He and Diddy should play well together.

10) Denver - without Camby, teams will score 150 pts a game on them.

11) Warriors - I am not sure Monta can handle the work load he is going to have this year.

12) Sacramento - I am a Kevin Martin fan.

13) OKC - I like what they have done with this team. I love Westbrook.

13) Minny - meh.

14) Memphis - Meh.

[DEEP3CL]

Nice analysis sendai91, and not because you had the Lakers in the one spot but for the fact it was on point. The only disagreement I have is with the Clippers, I think they have better talent then most realize. And they certainly will be better defensively.

Come on RacerX, you gotta get over how the Lakers got Gasol it was within the rules of the CBA and Memphis got what they wanted.............cap space and rid themselves of a heavy contract. It's no secret Heisley is going to sell that team everybody knows it.

If it were the Jazz who worked the same deal would you have complained ?

[Reckless]

Contenders
LA Lakers - best team in the west only gets better with Bynum

Utah Jazz - one of the deepest teams in the NBA led by one of the best PG's

SA Spurs - as long as they have Tim Duncan(who at 31 isn't THAT old) they still have a chance

New Orleans Hornets - the surprise team of last season had a nice pickup of James Posey to add depth

Pretenders
Dallas Mavericks - that Kidd trade didn't work out

Phoenix Suns - that Shaq trade didn't work out

Denver Nuggets - they'll miss camby more than they think

Wait and See
Houston Rockets - talented roster with some nice role players but they need both Tmac and Yao healthy to be taken serious as contenders

Portland T-Blazers - talented team but can they stay healthy?

LA Clippers - after losing Brand they did quite well for themselves, but their team is so different now, you gotta wonder how long it will take for all the new players to gel

[JStockLivesOn]

Good analysis, ut. I think that's on-target.

[erudite23]

I'm thinking 59 wins for us, 53 for the Hornets, if healthy otherwise I say 44, and 43 for the Blazers. Otherwise, I am fairly on board with Sendai's stuff.

I do look forward to another year of opening eyes. I am surprised how few people are aware of the validity of advanced statistics in projecting future success. If you look back at the stats, a team's projected win total based upon their margin of victory, offensive/defensive performance etc etc is a much better indication of the quality of team they are. The Jazz were neck and neck with the Lakers according to these stats in 07-08, and project to be even better this year considering the bevy of improving youth they have on the squad.

Yet, people are still regularly ranking the likes of the Hornets, Rockets, Spurs and even Suns/Blazers ahead of us without any real evidence to back up what they think.

Of the 4 best teams in the West last year (LAL/UT/NO/SA), both SA and NO achieved records that were considerably better than their advanced indicators would predict. In the past, teams who have done this typically fall of a bit the following year, the exception usually being younger teams who are still in the middle of a steep growth curve (coincedentally, the Jazz were one such team last season, as their 51 wins in 06-07 were above the advanced indicators, but they still improved the following season).

Its going to be a lot of fun.

Only problem is we have about a month of down-time until TC starts.

[qman]

My 2 cents-

Contenders
1 Lakers-Losing Turiaf hurts and with Kobe finally getting his surgery done I predict a slow start for the Lakers. On paper they are still the team to beat.

2 Hornets-Still look good but their guards situation after Paul is looking rough. Mike James is your backup point guard. They will miss Pargo a lot. He provided a lot of clutch points for them. Posey is a winner but they need another point guard badly.

3 Jazz- the Jazz keep on trucking. The key for us is how CJ, Brewer, Deron and Millsap continue to improve. This is a deep balanced team. They only need health for Boozer and Deron and decent season for AK.

4 Rockets- could be scary good this season. They have added Barry and Artest. But as always it all depends on how T-Mac's back is and how Yao holds up. They had perfect chemistry last season-does Artest screw that up?

On the way Up on the Way down

5 Spurs-I see the Spurs taking a step back to the second tier of teams. They are getting old and their young replacements haven't been coming on so strongly.

6 Portland- I think Portland will be a good team. But they currently have one proven PG-Blake. And he is proven to be average. Oden can help them inside but everything hinges on Roy's health. And that is a pretty big question mark. Portland is like the Jazz in Deron's second year. They are talented enough to be in games but they need to learn how to close that out with their current players. I think Jarret Jack was a big part of that and he's a Pacer now.

Hanging on

7 Dallas- I think Dallas will pull it together enough to make a decent run, but this team isn't very well constructed.

8 Denver- sneaks into the playoffs and saves Karl job until they get swept again in the first round.

What are they trying to do?

9 Warriors-uptempo game and no point guard. Hmm Big problem.

10 Clippers- I like several things about these clippers and if Dallas or Denver slip might leapfrog the Warriors into the Playoffs

11 Suns- I see the Suns having a major collapse this season. Injuries to Shaq, Nash and Hill. This isn't a very deep team and with a new coach they will have to find themselves. I think they will drop out of the playoffs

Still too Young

12 Sacromento has some talent but they aren't ready.

13 Minnesota- Their young players need to make more progress. Let the era of Love begin.


14-OKC- I like some of their players and dumping Ridour. They have a scorers, good defenders and some good bigs. But they need a starting 2 in the worst way.

15 Memphis- this is a bad, bad team.

[nghedman]

Everyone is forgeting the impact Korver had on this Jazz team too. That end of season trade did very well for the Jazz, and now that we will have him all season long, that alone could give us about 2-5 more wins!
We also have a back up point guard now that doesn't change our offense when he comes in. That will give us a win or two as well.
Plus the injuries we had through out the season was a bit more than usually that also should give us a win or two more.

What does that add up to over last years record? It would put us in first place in the western conference...on how tight it was.

[carrottop12]

Everyone is forgeting the impact Korver had on this Jazz team too. That end of season trade did very well for the Jazz, and now that we will have him all season long, that alone could give us about 2-5 more wins!
We also have a back up point guard now that doesn't change our offense when he comes in. That will give us a win or two as well.
Plus the injuries we had through out the season was a bit more than usually that also should give us a win or two more.

What does that add up to over last years record? It would put us in first place in the western conference...on how tight it was.

Don't forget that Korver was crappy last year, if the Jazz can get him into a comfortable place, getting used to having the same open shots every game there is no reason he can't be a huge scorer off the bench close to the tune of 14 ppg. He could be a huge player towards the Jazz getting a championship ring.

Then the young guys being even one more year matured should really help.

I do worry about injuries just like every team, but the fact that everyone is in a contract year means people are going to want to play as many games as possible.

[nghedman]

Don't forget that Korver was crappy last year, if the Jazz can get him into a comfortable place, getting used to having the same open shots every game there is no reason he can't be a huge scorer off the bench close to the tune of 14 ppg. He could be a huge player towards the Jazz getting a championship ring.

Then the young guys being even one more year matured should really help.

I do worry about injuries just like every team, but the fact that everyone is in a contract year means people are going to want to play as many games as possible.[/quote]


What?! Korver crappy? Thats not what I was saying... He is a role player don't forget, he helped the Jazz at the end of the season like the end of your paragraph is alluding to as his skill.

YES!! Contract year should bring a win or two.

[carrottop12]

What?! Korver crappy? Thats not what I was saying... He is a role player don't forget, he helped the Jazz at the end of the season like the end of your paragraph is alluding to as his skill.

YES!! Contract year should bring a win or two.

Korver did not shoot the ball anywhere near as good as he's capable of.

He's one of the league's elite shooters, and when he's getting that many open looks I expect next season he's closer to 45% from 3, and certainly over 40%. There is no reason Korver can't be a very good player in Jerry Sloan's system, it is custom built for players who can come off of screens for open jumpshtos, pass in to the low post, and rotate well on defense.

[JStockLivesOn]

Korver did not shoot the ball anywhere near as good as he's capable of.

He's one of the league's elite shooters, and when he's getting that many open looks I expect next season he's closer to 45% from 3, and certainly over 40%. There is no reason Korver can't be a very good player in Jerry Sloan's system, it is custom built for players who can come off of screens for open jumpshtos, pass in to the low post, and rotate well on defense.

Agreed. For a shooter of his caliber, his numbers were far too low. Now that he's had a half-season to get used to things, I'm hopeful that he'll start putting it in the hoop more frequently.

[qman]

Korver said something about not being very comfortable shooting-wise in the ESA. The extra time their for practices and such should iron that out.

[carrottop12]

Korver said something about not being very comfortable shooting-wise in the ESA. The extra time their for practices and such should iron that out.

Exactly, he said he wasn't used to the baskets position against the crowd I think. He said it would just take some time. I have no doubt he will get used to it and be a 45% shooter next season which will really help the Jazz out.

[qman]

The real issue is the minute crunch.

I think the starters will stay the same:

Deron (38)
Brewer (28)
AK (32)
Boozer (35)
Okur (31)

Bench wise I hope it shakes out like this

Price/Knight(10)
CJ Miles (12)
Korver (20)
Harpring (14)
Millsap (20)

Collins-only in case of injury
Koufos-13 man

Almond-NBDL/Trade Bait.
Fess-NBDL/Trade Bait.


We would play Okur and Boozer at Center with Millsap and AK at the 4 for a few minutes. Close the Game with Deron, Korver, AK, Boozer and Okur. Deron, Harpring, Brewer and Millsap still provide the physical tone to our team.

We really need to turn Almond into somekind of asset. We wouldn't really miss Harpring either.