On a scale of 1-10 how bad do you hate this deal

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:41 pm

Boozer
Harpring
for
Nick Collison
Chucky atkins

Saves the Jazz about 9.4 mil. Enough to match Millsap and almost be under the lux tax.

Post #2 » by **slick_watts** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:46 pm

okc fan, 10

Post #3 » by **StocktonShorts** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:52 pm

Would be great but not sure why OKC does that. Being one of the few teams with cap space they have a lot of leverage here. Their cap space IS the primary asset they're trading for Boozer. Why would they also give up Collison and also take Harpring's contract? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Post #4 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 6:52 pm

Wow. Not a big fan of Boozer I guess.

Pai Gow · Post #5 » by **Pai Gow** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:21 pm

We love it obviously, they hate it, and why would they help out a division rival in the first place? For a one year rental in Booz?

Post #6 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:24 pm

They'd have his bird rights and have an excellent chance of resigning him.

I think this is bad if most jazz fans dont' even think we could get Nick Collison. Yikes.

The way I see it, we'd be helping them out.

Post #7 » by **StocktonShorts** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:25 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:Wow. Not a big fan of Boozer I guess.

It's not a question of how much a team likes Boozer in the abstract; it's whether they like him AND they think they can sign him to a reasonable extension. Either that or they're in win-now mode and they don't mind him as a one-year rental.

Post #8 » by **slick_watts** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:41 pm

i love boozer as a player but i don't think he really fits what okc's trying to do. i don't think they'll be interested in signing boozer to a max contract next year regardless of how well he plays. i like that nick collison comes off, which will give okc more cap space next year, but imo utah has to send something over for presti to do this. okc is not a team that's going to spend money wantonly, and a one year rental of boozer when the team isn't in contention would qualify.

HolyToledo · Post #9 » by **HolyToledo** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 7:55 pm

Jazz getting nothing but an over-paid slow white forward (bench player). I hate 10 for Jazz.

baserunner1414 · Post #10 » by **baserunner1414** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 9:17 pm

What about a deal with Miami.. Do we really want Beasley i dont.. so how about Udonis Haslem and Daequan Cook for Boozer.

maccca32 · Post #11 » by **maccca32** » Sun Jul 12, 2009 10:22 pm

I think Collinson / Harpring would be at the option of OKC (i.e. possible Harpring retires and maybe gets 80% paid by insurance) which could save them some money as well although I think the Jazz want to keep Harps if there is savings to be had.

Otherwise Atkins for Boozer straight up for a pure salary dump or maybe even a Atkins / Wilkins for Boozer / Miles after the 1 year anniversay (25 July?) of him signing to the offer sheet.

JoNoNRose · Post #12 » by **JoNoNRose** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:55 am

baserunner1414 wrote:What about a deal with Miami.. Do we really want Beasley i dont.. so how about Udonis Haslem and Daequan Cook for Boozer.

You prefer two lifetime role players over a potential star? :confused:

babyjax13 · Post #13 » by **babyjax13** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:12 am

Give us Phoenix's 2010 1st and I like it, otherwise it is about a 7. I think the drop from Boozer to Collison makes us a perennial 7th-10th place team in the west.

idajazz · Post #14 » by **idajazz** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:20 am

I don't like it either .......8

Post #15 » by **slick_watts** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 2:17 pm

i get the feeling more and more that sam presti is not going to facilitate any trade for utah unless he gets the knicks 2010 first rounder. for that reason a deal involving okc is unlikely unless utah gets really desperate.

DByrne86 · Post #16 » by **DByrne86** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:15 pm

For Sam Presti or any GM to think that Utah would ever trade that NY pick without getting substantial value in return shows a complete lack of respect for O'Connor's competency. That pick has very real potential to turn into a franchise player, so it would take a franchise type player in return to trade it. Based on New York's performance in the last decade and their upcoming roster, I would suggest the following odds for the pick:

1st pick: 10%
Top 3 pick: 20%
Top 5 pick: 40%
Top 7 pick: 70%
Top 10 pick: 80%
Lottery pick: 90%

Has there ever been a time when a team traded an unprotected pick and it worked out in their favor? Seems to me like one of the stupidest things a GM could ever do.

Post #17 » by **StocktonShorts** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:37 pm

How did you arrive at those numbers?

There's some interesting potential analysis here. Let's say we can assign reasonable probabilities to each pick position (as you've done -- but I'd like something more rigorous); that's step one.

Step two would be to look at the hit/miss rate of that pick number for the last ten-fifteen years of the draft.

Combining the two you could come up with that pick's estimated value.

My gut feeling is that the EV of that pick isn't nearly as high as Jazz fans think it is.