Post#33 » by ADWCTA » Sat Jun 25, 2011 4:39 pm
Looking at his footage, he reminds me a LOT of Ronnie Brewer on offense, without the gimped jump shot... with Matt Harpring's intensity on the boards... and CJ Miles' defense.
Looking at his situational stats, he's horrible shooting off the dribble, even if he can get great spacing and put a shot up. Yes, he'll shoot a clean shot, no it doesn't look like he's going to make it either way. I'm not sure this will actually improve, so Burks is going to end up wasting one of his best talents. Also, Hornacek never knew how to shoot off the dribble, he was always a much better spot up guy, so if they stick Burks with him, it's not like he'll develope into Jimmer.
That being said, he has really good shooting form, and as his ft% shows, he does have the potential to become an adequate shooter from midrange, and even extend to the 3pt line (think: Kirilenko, not Korver). This is the key element Brewer never had, which limited his potential as an NBA starter. I think everyone from KOC to Burks himself knows that Burks will live and die in this league by his eventual ability to add shooting consistancy and range to his repertoire.
He's also not freakishly athletic, just slightly above average athleticism for a NBA SG of his age. I don't know what everyone is so excited about here. We've seen Brewer, and Evans... who both blow Burks out.
He's clearly not as good of a defender as Brewer, nor does he have the necessary physical gifts Brewer has (long arms, large hands) on defense, even though he does look a bit quicker and with better reaction speed. Once he fills out his frame a bit, he'll end up an adequate defender at his position, but by no means a good one. Considering the recent dearth in the NBA of star SGs (and this draft didn't help, since Burks was widely considered the best SG prospect of the draft), this might not be a huge concern for the near future.
10% Chance All Star
40% Chance Regular Starter
80% Chance Rotation Player
Not bad for the 12th pick, not great either.
Compare with 14th pick in a deeper draft Ronnie Brewer, who had 0% Chance All Star, 25% Chance Regular Start... we did good. I would still have preferred to trade this pick for a vet who would help Raja set an example and tone for the kids / play 2-3 years to tie the franchise over, or trade up for Jimmer.