Experts Love Jazz Draft

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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#21 » by erudite23 » Mon Jun 27, 2011 10:10 pm

reapaman wrote:I think Givony is telling the flat out truth. Theres no double standard because I too like bismack but don't like Kanter. With Bismack, i can look up many of his games and see how he plays to determine if I like him or not (which I do) but with kanter I can only speculate what he will be (not liked anything he did in the highlights either). What happened the last time we had to speculate.... Darko happened. I know the Jazz have seen tons of stuff on Enes but remember Darko was widely considered to be the concensus #2 pick behind Lebron and scouts looked at him about as much as they did enes; so its not like this type of scenerio hasn't happened before. And I don't care if you don't think enes is like Darko or Enes may grow better with the Jazz than Darko did with the pistons, it doesn't change that it happened and very likely could happen again.

As for his defense, he could be worst than Jefferson for all you guys know (as hard as that is to believe). Plus he's factoring in no Kirilenko.



Yes, and we've already established that you use blind stereotypes (most prominently racial bias) to form the basis for your opinion. So you're not doing JG any favors by likening him to you.

Why are you picking and choosing bust scenarios? Should we not have drafted Deron Williams because Jay Williams, a similar player who was drafted in a similar position, was a bust? Should Cleveland have passed on Kyrie Irving on the same basis? Should Orlando have passed on Dwight Howard based upon the Kwame Brown fiasco?

Likewise, should Portland have passed on Brandon Roy because he was an "unathletic" senior from the pacific northwest who could shoot...very similarly to Luke Jackson, one of the biggest flame outs in recent draft history....and instead gone with Randy Foye who's profile was a dead ringer for Dwyane Wade??

Do you see where the stupidity of your logic leads?


Players are players. You evaluate them on their own merits. If the draft were as simple as finding the most recent player who's profile resembled a given prospect, and then stacking your board accordingly, there would be no mistakes in the draft. One of the crutches of stupidity is over-simplification, and you, sir, stand guilty as charged. Nothing you say makes sense.

Kanter very well may be a bust. But if he is, he will be an Enes Kanter bust. He won't fail the way that Darko did, or the way that Koufos did. He'll fail in his own way for his own reasons.


And the fact that you like Biyombo, who has played a grand total of just over 200 minutes (the equivalent of 7 games of near full time play) of high level basketball with no junior-level track record of any kind, and yet pretend like the fact that Enes Kanter has been dominating the world since he was 15 years old (including his only showing against American players of his own age) means nothing is just laughable.

The reality here is that you are profiling. You look at Bismack and see an athletic black dude and you look at Kanter and see a big white stiff, even though neither case is that simple or that extreme. And when you're wrong you will fade into the background just like everyone does that fits YOUR profile. But good talk.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#22 » by erudite23 » Mon Jun 27, 2011 10:38 pm

eLo wrote:well except that both guys are good prospects they are not known as even solid defenders. Its not about liking or disliking Jazz picks, but Kanter/Burks wont make that team good in def, at least not any time soon.



You're projecting 19 year olds. When Bogut came out of Utah in 2005, he was supposed to be a liability on defense. He is now probably the 2nd most impactful defensive player in the league. Meanwhile, Boozer was considered to be a defensive minded big by many coming out of Duke.

Defense is even trickier to project than offense, but I don't think that there is any real evidence that Kanter isn't good defensively. Most of that talk has been generated by DX based upon him loafing it against 6'3" white kids in high school. On the national team and during the hoops summit, he showed far better and displayed both the drive AND the athletic ability to be a solid defender. I really think that this has gotten out of hand. Kanter has the ability to be a good defender. It will all come down to his mind set as he develops into a pro. Burks could become a defensive maven. He has excellent quicks and really fast hands. If he wants to be, he can be very solid as well. With Favors behind them to erase their mistakes, they will have the latitude to figure things out.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#23 » by Jazzfan12 » Mon Jun 27, 2011 11:29 pm

Givony posted that after the Jazz picked Burks who played no defense whatsoever in college.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#24 » by reapaman » Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:41 am

To erudite23

Ok lets forget Darko for a min and focus on Enes. When I see the highlights of Enes, I don't see any strong post moves. Of the ones he has like the turnaround towards the basket or the turnaround low post up shot, and drop step shot in the post looks slow and ugly. Even in those little highlights, you see on multiple occasions his shot get almost blocked or almost stripped when he tries to excute a move. I know he didn't actually get stripped or blocked in the highlights (not gonna show that) but if you see a good amount of those almost situations in a small video that suppose to highlight his strengths, then theres no telling what kinds of bad stuff you will see in a full game. Those will easily become actual blocks and steals in the NBA against bigger, taller and better players. Plus most of the highlights he's just shooting over people or reaching over them for rebounds. His moves are clearly not refined or polished yet and they are still weak and developing. And I won't comment too much on his defense but its boozer like at best from what I've seen.

I know he's only 19 so of course his moves need more polishing but the problem is many people are talking like he's ready to contribute meaningful minutes on offense right now but he's not based on the video I saw. People are expecting this kid to do more than he's ready to do. Plus he's in a rotation where he's not guaranteed mins. And what do #3 picks generally get paid the first few years, like 4 - 4.5 mil? Thats alot to pay for a guy especially for the Jazz if he still needs a few years to develop. At least Favors plays defense, I'm not sure if Kanter can play good on defense (based on the video the answer is no). And the way some of you are suggesting that the Millers want to make the playoffs, I can see in a year or 2 if he's not ready to play big mins that he's gonna be used as bait to get another veteran. So he may not have alot of time to impress the Jazz.

I dont stereotype otherwise I wouldn't like Jonas, Veasley or Kevin Love to go back a bit (I dont really care for Dontas while I'm at it). And I like Biyombo but I didn't like Thabeet or Sene. All Hasheem did in college was camp in the post and block everything that came to him. Very little effort needed and no real skill invovled since he's so tall. Unfortunatly for him there are 3 second rules on offense and defense in the NBA. Biyombo on the other hand needed to work hard to not only lead the ACB in blocks (by averaging almost a full block more than the #2 guy) but be one of the most productive players in that league. Biyombo been playing basketball essentially all his life (he's no Sene) and even tho the congo league is weak, its still unusual for a player especially as young as he was to rise through that league so fast. He has a lot of intagibles that are evident such as his leadership, hard work ethic and passion for the game that are thing that neither Sene or Thabeet had. I can see that at least his help defense is NBA ready which will help him survive until he develops especially on a team like Charlotte where's he's likely to get alot of playing time.

BTW whats with your comparisons? Foye and Wade? Wade's was a clear sg coming out of college and Foye was seen as more of a point guard. Deron and Jay Williams? Deron is way more physically impressive than Jay plus in fairness, we never got too see if Jay could eventually adjust to the NBA. Roy and Jackson? is just lol. Kwame has no true passion for basketball which scouts were saying before he was drafted (Jamarcus Russell situation) while Dwight clearly did. Passion for the game is a big deal.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#25 » by jazzfan1971 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 7:08 am

I'm very afraid of Enes busting myself. His bust potential is sky high. Biyombo has a high bust potential as well.

Very few bigs are drafted without bust potential. Those ones that are usually go #1.

Cleveland could have used a center, they passed.
Minny could have used a center, they passed.

Maybe they are dumb, but, if Enes was all that and a bag of chips, I think they'd have nabbed him due to the difficulty in getting a decent center in this league.

I think he's got about a 25% chance of being practically worthless. Olowokandi type.
Then about a 50% chance of being simply decent. More Chris Kaman.
Then about 20% chance of being good. More Al Jefferson.
Then maybe a 5% chance of being really good. More Pau Gasol.

So, 75% chance we're getting Chris Kaman OR WORSE.

Now we could have drafted Knight instead and had much less risk. Maybe

5% chance of being practically worthless - Shawn Livingston (ok, post injury)
40% chance of being simply decent - Randy Foye
45% chance of being good - Kirk Hinrich
10% chance of being really good - Jason Terry

So, on the one hand 3 of 4 times you're going to be disappointed. On the other a little more than half the time you'll probably be satisfied. But, Pau Gasol >>>>>>> Jason Terry when it comes to value in the NBA.

So, we swung for the fences. I don't like the odds, but, I do like the upside.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#26 » by Toothless » Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:52 pm

Not sure about the bust percentages listed above.

Whether Kanter becomes a star or not is certainly in question. But his potential to be a solid player is pretty good.

He is a big guy who takes up space and plays big.

He is a big guy with basketball skills

He seems to have a good BBIQ

He is a big guy with motivation who works on his game and works to stay in shape

He is with an organization that is patient with big men.

Unless he gets hurt, or his skills are all "workout" and not game skills and he has fooled everyone (which is certainly possible), I don't think he has much chance of being a bust. We'll know a lot more after he plays some games, but all of the ingredients are there for at least a solid career and maybe a very good one.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#27 » by jazzfan1971 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:56 pm

Is Kris Kaman a guy with a solid career?
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#28 » by The59Sound » Tue Jun 28, 2011 5:20 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:Is Kris Kaman a guy with a solid career?


I'd say Chris Kaman's had a very solid career. Performing to that level would still make Kanter the second most useful center in Jazz history (with apologies to Memo).
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#29 » by Fido » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:32 pm

Jazzfan12 wrote:Givony posted that after the Jazz picked Burks who played no defense whatsoever in college.

Really? This is from DE's own profile on Burks (bold added):
From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ale ... z1Qbm5FuPz
http://www.draftexpress.com

Defensively, Burks is somewhat of a mixed bag, but he shows good potential on this end of the floor. With his good size, nice length, excellent lateral quickness and solid anticipation skills, he has all the tools needed to guard his position successfully in the NBA.

He generally puts in a good effort on the defensive end, getting low in his stance and often guarding the opposing team's best scorer—and doing so effectively for the most part. He already ranks as the second-best rebounding wing player in this draft class (after Travis Leslie), which has to be considered a good sign.


That either sounds like "played no defense whatsoever in college" is either a gross exaggeration or the profile on DE is a bunch of hooey.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#30 » by finnegan » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:55 pm

reapaman wrote:I think Givony is telling the flat out truth.


Yes. He is sharing his version of "the truth." I will explain below.

reapaman wrote:... i can look up many of his games and see how he plays to determine if I like him or not (which I do) but with kanter I can only speculate what he will be (not liked anything he did in the highlights either).


Here is "the truth". Enes is what he is and it doesn't matter if Givony watched him play for a single second. It is a huge logical flaw to say, I havn't seen enough of Enes, therefore he is a poor player.

reapaman wrote:What happened the last time we had to speculate.... Darko happened.


Wow! That solves all future problems for similar situations. GMs no longer need to use their brain to discriminate. All future european big men will turn out like Darko.

The problem with a "control freak" like Givony, who spends his life predicting the future is that people like him actually start to believe that they can predict the future. It pisses him off that someone would have the audacity to enter the draft in Enes situation, because Givony can't manipulate it and manufacture his business from it.

Here is the dilemna that Givony has placed himself in in regards to Enes, and I would love to say this to his face.

So you believe that you have insuffuicient information to estimate if Enes will have a successful NBA career, but somehow you DO have enough information to conclude that he will not be productive in the NBA, and/or will be the next Darko. How is that? Seems like you are being an OxyMORON to me.



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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#31 » by Jazzfan12 » Tue Jun 28, 2011 10:27 pm

You know you can make the exact opposite argument right? We don't have enough info to judge Enes, but we somehow do have enough information to say he's going to be good? Draftexpress watched a ton of Enes in Europe and didn't rate him as a top ten pick after his European basketball stuff and that was pretty much the only thing useful to judge him.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#32 » by finnegan » Tue Jun 28, 2011 10:36 pm

Jazzfan12 wrote:You know you can make the exact opposite argument right? We don't have enough info to judge Enes, but we somehow do have enough information to say he's going to be good?


Yes, but teams have an advantage that Givony doesn't. It is called head to head work outs, which is a meaningful way to compare his skills to the top players in his draft class.

Enes didn't back down at the NBA Combine, and he didn't dodge any head to head workouts against Morris or Thompson. This seems silly to say, but we can only choose from the players eligible for the current draft, and compared to the other options, the Jazz rated him as the best available player at #3.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#33 » by reapaman » Tue Jun 28, 2011 10:59 pm

finnegan wrote:
So you believe that you have insuffuicient information to estimate if Enes will have a successful NBA career, but somehow you DO have enough information to conclude that he will not be productive in the NBA, and/or will be the next Darko. How is that? Seems like you are being an OxyMORON to me.


I don't know about Givony but I said in my other post after the one you quoted that based on the video I saw (I think I've seen all avalible video of him) he looks like a bust and I sorta broke it down why. Basically he looks like a true project to me and most teams dont want to do what it takes to develop a project big.

There still part of his games that I have to make assumptions about tho. Thats where more video comes in. For one, I don't know how exactly hard he plays on defense most of the time. I assumed he didn't play much defense because a player with his size shouldve had more blocks in the under 18 euro league and shouldve got at least one block in the hoops summit. Then the DX video of him not trying hard on defense came out which only fueled the fire. Then there was the Locke video of him a few years ago showing him trying a little bit harder on defense, still a lot of bad stuff on defense but at least he tried. So do I assume he's a boozer like defender (which is horrible to say the least but he does try I guess) or has he shown he can be better than that in settings I haven't seen him in? I trust my first instinct which is usually right and say he's boozer like at best on defense.

Theres other stuff like his ability to get to the free throw line or has he improved his low post moves since the last time he played that I'm not sure about but it doesnt look good form based on the information I have. With Darko, people's imagination started running wild and was giving him qualities that he didn't have yet. The very limited video we had of Darko made him look like Kevin Garnett. His offensive game wasn't nearly as strong it seemed in the video or how the analyst were saying but if we had more video we could see that for sure. Based on what I seen of Kanter his offensive game doesn't look as strong as people are saying either but mabey he performed better in some of the under 18 league games I didn't get to see. People were raving about his hoop summit performance but I saw nothing special, he just took full advantage of his superior size and typical bad high school defense. So once again, it looks like another darko situation based the information I have.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#34 » by Paper Face » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:56 am

I'm so worried that Kanter is going to be exactly like Darko that I'm going to go watch Family Guy for 10 straight hours and then eat oreos until i pass out. You have me that rattled, Reapaman.
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Re: Experts Love Jazz Draft 

Post#35 » by Nate505 » Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:59 am

jazzfan1971 wrote:Is Kris Kaman a guy with a solid career?

I think so. I'd be esctatic if Kanter's had at a minimum a Kaman type of career. Kaman put up 15 and 12 one year (and 2.8 blocks a game), and 18.5/9 a couple years ago. Not astounding numbers but definitely a solid contributor.

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