Lottery Probabilities (Merged All things Lotto thread)

DWill#8 · Post #1 » by **DWill#8** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:05 pm

I have not been able to find an updated distribution of lottery probabilities after the tie breakers that occurred yesterday. So just for fun I decided to write a program that would generate the exact probabilities and the results are seen above. There are only seven positions the GS pick can end up after the lottery which are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th. Three of those seven possible results lead to the Jazz getting the pick. Only the latter three would result in the pick going to Utah. As the outcomes are weighted differently adding the three highlighted numbers in the chart above shows that the chance of Utah getting the pick is 27.38142%. So there is still some hope. Does anyone know when the lottery is?

UTJazzFan_Echo1 · Post #2 » by **UTJazzFan_Echo1** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 6:28 pm

Very nice.

Pretty sure the exact date of the Lottery has yet to be announced, but it should be sometime in May.

So really, if you add the two together, we have/had a total of 77.38142% chance of getting the pick... I'll take it haha.

hoops4life · Post #3 » by **hoops4life** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 9:36 pm

77.3%? We only get it at 8,9, or 10. That is 27.4% chance.

Hoops Addict · Post #4 » by **Hoops Addict** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:16 pm

Warriors Win Tie-Breaker; Chance of Keeping Draft Pick Better than 70 percent

By Marcus Thompson
Friday, April 27th, 2012 at 12:41 pm in Uncategorized.

UPDATED: The Warriors will have better than a 70 percent chance of keeping their first-round draft pick after winning the tie-breaker with Toronto on Friday, the team announced. As a result, Golden State could end up with four first-round picks.

Golden State and the Raptors finished tied with the seventh-worst record in the NBA. A random drawing held by the NBA in New York broke the tie. The Warriors will be slotted No. 7 entering the draft lottery, and Toronto is slotted No. 8.

Winning the tie-breaker means Golden State has a 12.6 percent chance of moving up into the top three, including a 3.6 percent chance of landing the top pick. There is nearly a 60 percent chance the Warriors will stay at No. 7.

If Golden State lands the eighth pick or lower, it will be sent to Utah based on a trade from 2008. But if the Warriors land a top seven selection, a condition kicks in that allows them to keep the selection and send their 2013 pick to Utah.

The Warriors will find out where they draft at the May 30 draft lottery in Secaucus, N.JNew York. Winning the tie-breaker means Golden State has a 12.6 percent chance of moving up into the top three, including a 3.6 percent chance of landing the top pick. There is nearly a 60 percent chance the Warriors will stay at No. 7.

If the Warriors had lost the tie-breaker, they would have been slotted No. 8. That would have required they move up in the draft lottery into the top three, which the No. 8 slot now has a 12.4 percent chance of doing.

The Warriors were involved in a total of four tie-breakers on Friday, winning three of them. The other three involved the pick from San Antonio Golden State acquired in exchange for Stephen Jackson, and second round picks the Warriors acquired from New Jersey and Atlanta. In addition to potentially getting a top seven pick, the Warriors will select No. 30, 35 and 52. The 30th pick they got from the Spurs. The No. 35 pick they got from New Jersey in the Brandon Wright/Dan Gadzuric for Troy Murphy trade February 2011. The No. 52 pick they bought from Atlanta in March.

DWill#8 · Post #5 » by **DWill#8** » Sat Apr 28, 2012 11:51 pm

UTJazzFan_Echo1 wrote:Very nice.

Pretty sure the exact date of the Lottery has yet to be announced, but it should be sometime in May.

So really, if you add the two together, we have/had a total of 77.38142% chance of getting the pick... I'll take it haha.

I think you're referring to our chances prior to the coin flip(which we lost). Adding 50% to the 27.38142% does not give our true chances prior to the coin flip. Even if we had won the coin toss we were not guaranteed the pick, there would have still been a 12.33% chance GS jumped into the top 3.
Prior to the coin flip our chances were as follows:
.5(lose coin flip)*.2738(at least one team behind GS gets into the top 3 bumping the pick back to 8th, 9th, or 10th) + .5(win coin flip)*.8767(GS fails to get into the top 3 resulting in a 8th,9th,10th, or 11th draft pick )
=.1369+.4383
=.5752
So basically before the coin flip we had a 57.52% chance of obtaining the pick. After losing the coin toss our chances have sharply decreased from 57.52% down to 27.38%

sendai91 · Post #6 » by **sendai91** » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:14 am

... Houston, Phoenix or Portland end up with the #1 pick? For GSW to slip to #8, that means someone below us will have to move into the top 3. I wonder if a favorable bounce our way in the lottery (GSW slipping to #8), means that one of our WC rivals now have what should be a perennial all-star in Anthony Davis on their roster, similar to what happened when Seattle got Durant or even the Spurs lucked into Duncan in 1997. I wonder if in a few years down the road, we'll end up regretting what in 2012 seemed to be a stroke of good luck for us. Said differently, I'm not sure there's anyone we could pick @ #8 that would shift the balance of power in the conference to the Jazz anywhere close to how Davis would make the W's, Suns or Rockets immensely better right away..

blackham9258 · Post #7 » by **blackham9258** » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:42 am

The highest probability of jumping us comes from teams from the east:

Toronto
Detroit
Milwakee

New Orleans is at 10, Portland at 11.

Its likely to be Toronto or Detroit... both of which I am okay with and the higher likliehood is that it is pick 2 or 3, not 1.

blackham9258 · Post #8 » by **blackham9258** » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:45 am

Also, I am not particularly sold on Davis being a super star. He is being billed as a Marcus Camby type player? Really? That doesn't scare me. If he ends up like a Kevin Garnett that doesn't scare me either. Its the Lebron/D Wade, Kobe, Dwight Howard's of the world that keep me up at night. This guys is going to be a finesse guy for years before developing an offensive game.

He is as likely to become Brandon Wright as he is Kevin Garnett. Happens all the time.

Post #9 » by **DelaneyRudd** » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:55 am

sendai91 wrote:... Houston, Phoenix or Portland end up with the #1 pick? For GSW to slip to #8, that means someone below us will have to move into the top 3. I wonder if a favorable bounce our way in the lottery (GSW slipping to #8), means that one of our WC rivals now have what should be a perennial all-star in Anthony Davis on their roster, similar to what happened when Seattle got Durant or even the Spurs lucked into Duncan in 1997. I wonder if in a few years down the road, we'll end up regretting what in 2012 seemed to be a stroke of good luck for us. Said differently, I'm not sure there's anyone we could pick @ #8 that would shift the balance of power in the conference to the Jazz anywhere close to how Davis would make the W's, Suns or Rockets immensely better right away..

I'm fine with them getting 3. 2 would hurt. 1 would be bad. I hope the Bucks get #1. They will find a way to screw up having a great player.

mg · Post #10 » by mg » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:41 pm

I was really hoping for the Jazz to get that GS pick. The Warriors are so dysfunctional and there is also protection on that pick for the next few years.

The Jazz really just need an upgrade at PG and another wing to replace Howard and play next to Hayward.

Could KOC make a deal with a fringe lottery team like Houston or Philly to acquire another pick to select a young PG? How about a bigger deal for a top 5 pick to grab one of the top tier SF talents such as MKG or Barnes? If so what would be the ammunition to acquire the pick? Favors, Hayward and Millsap would IMO be off the table for any deals.