Jefferson vs Millsap?

[Litany]

2-man combos featuring the 4 bigs:

Kanter-Millsap: +29 (120 minutes)
Kanter-Favors: +25 (541 minutes)
Favors-Millsap: +23 (233 minutes)
Jefferson-Kanter: +11 (25 minutes)
Jefferson-Millsap: -40 (1377 minutes)
Jefferson-Favors: -61 (392 minutes)

I don't like the idea of Al being on this team long term.

He uses possessions below the league average, is a sub par defender, and building an offense centered around him is a one way ticket to fringe playoff status and the mediocrity treadmill.

The stat I included in this post is credit to the poster on JF. It's another stat showing Al isnt good for our team.

If I have to choose one I'd pick Millsap. Id rather we spend money on another position and get Carl Landry or Hickson for cheap.

[Inigo Montoya]

if we keep millsap, signing landry and hickson becomes redundant. also, hickson is just ending a 4M season and is averaging a double double. and he's a big. we're not getting him cheap, even if we wanted him. nobody is.

[pickIBL]

Hickson rebounds well (especially this year) but he is not a great defender. I just don't get the fascination with overpaying some of these guys. You got the rights to a giant overseas who you could have for less than JJ makes right now. Just makes no sense...

[reapaman]

2-man combos featuring the 4 bigs:

Kanter-Millsap: +29 (120 minutes)
Kanter-Favors: +25 (541 minutes)
Favors-Millsap: +23 (233 minutes)
Jefferson-Kanter: +11 (25 minutes)
Jefferson-Millsap: -40 (1377 minutes)
Jefferson-Favors: -61 (392 minutes)

I don't like the idea of Al being on this team long term.

He uses possessions below the league average, is a sub par defender, and building an offense centered around him is a one way ticket to fringe playoff status and the mediocrity treadmill.

The stat I included in this post is credit to the poster on JF. It's another stat showing Al isnt good for our team.

If I have to choose one I'd pick Millsap. Id rather we spend money on another position and get Carl Landry or Hickson for cheap.

Those numbers don't mean much at all when you consider the amount of minutes each guy plays versus starters and which players they are spending the majority of their time playing with. I mean if you use "production" numbers like those and the ones you find on 82 games and other sites than you can conclude things like Kanter being a superior defender than Favors when we all know thats not true. I mean someone even used those kinda numbers to say david west is a elite defender which is blasphemy.

You have to be careful with those numbers. Jefferson has issues but he's very valueble and he has been passing alot more than people give him credit for. You don't have to build around him, if you make the right moves especially with all the assets we got than he can be your #2 or #3 best player which is idea with his leadership and clutch ability.

[PimpHandStrong]

Those numbers don't mean much at all when you consider the amount of minutes each guy plays versus starters and which players they are spending the majority of their time playing with.

Millsap plays with superstars and against total scrubs more than Jefferson?

[reapaman]

Those numbers don't mean much at all when you consider the amount of minutes each guy plays versus starters and which players they are spending the majority of their time playing with.

Millsap plays with superstars and against total scrubs more than Jefferson?

No, when he plays with Kanter or Favors its usually versus bench guys while Jefferson hardly plays with Kanter and Jefferson usually plays with Favors usually versus starters. Plus theres a reason those numbers suggest the lineups with Kanter in it are the most productive than the ones with Favors in it since Favors plays more against starters (usually with Jefferson) while Kanter plays primarily versus bench guys.

[Litany]

Those numbers don't mean much at all when you consider the amount of minutes each guy plays versus starters and which players they are spending the majority of their time playing with.

Millsap plays with superstars and against total scrubs more than Jefferson?

No, when he plays with Kanter or Favors its usually versus bench guys while Jefferson hardly plays with Kanter and Jefferson usually plays with Favors usually versus starters. Plus theres a reason those numbers suggest the lineups with Kanter in it are the most productive than the ones with Favors in it since Favors plays more against starters (usually with Jefferson) while Kanter plays primarily versus bench guys.

Sounds like the classic "if the stat doesn't help my argument it's useless" approach.

The point is there's a common theme in those stats. Jefferson is in the worst three duos while Sap is in the better three.

Also, Jefferson's below league usage rate is an issue.

I'm not just using this stat as the only reason why I don't want Al back. There are many. One major one is I don't want to commit $40 Million to our 3 man bigs rotation(if Al gets 16 Million and Fav and Kanter each get $12 which all are likely) that's too much money for that rotation. And if Al gets a 5 year deal, this will be the cost for those three players for three of those years

And I know you are convinced that the Jazz will bring Al back but their conduct doesn't say that. They didn't offer an extension to Al. If they were trying to lock him up they would have offered something to him. Al is going to get a max offer this summer from a team and the Jazz know that. If they wanted him he'd be locked up


We'd be better off signing Sap to a smaller contract like $9 million. If he won't take that let him walk and get Carl Landry to rotate with Favors and Kanter and see where that takes us.

[reapaman]

Well we will just agree to disagree for now but honest question

Why is Al's usage rate an issue? Your saying he should dominate the ball more even though people complain he dominates the ball too much now?

Enlighten me if you will

[Inigo Montoya]

the jazz had no incentive to offer big al an extension, and he had no incentive to sign one.

assuming the jazz don't want and are unwilling to pay him max money, making him an offer makes no sense in that position, since an extension is for 3 years at most. if they sign him for longer, they may be able to get a more flexible contract in place' like more total money for 4 years but less money per year, and have some team option\non guaranteed fourth year which could help down the road to maintain his trading value.

from big al's perspective, there is no incentive to sign an extension that can be for 3 years at most, when he could potentially get a 5 year deal of a max contract with the jazz, or 4 years of a max contract elsewhere. i think it is a safe assumption to make that his agent made it clear to the jazz which is why no extension offer was made. millsap was in a different situation, and may eventually regret not taking the jazz's offer.

[Litany]

Well we will just agree to disagree for now but honest question

Why is Al's usage rate an issue? Your saying he should dominate the ball more even though people complain he dominates the ball too much now?

Enlighten me if you will

The issue is he uses possessions at below league average and he's the central part of the offense. We will never be an above average team with him here. Book it.

I'm in the camp that thinks he dominates it too much. And him using possessions that way will never lead to above average consistent winning.

And you really think it is smart management to commit 60% of our payroll to the three man bigs rotation? I think that's moronic. I'm assuming a $65 Million payroll

[Inigo Montoya]

well, if al signs for 3 years, then even if kanter will get 12M, by that time big al's contract will be off the books already.

i don't think he dominates the ball too much, especially not this year. and he is not the reason our ball movement isn't great - just look at the way everyone moves and make cuts. we don't cut hard at all. this year al kept the ball moving, and bad PG play is much more of an issue.

i don't think big al's using possessions under league average is such a big issue, especially considering our roster. i don't see anyone else being able to put consistent offensive output and anchor our offense every night with better possession usage. not millsap, and certainly not favors or kanter at the moment. furthermore, even if big al is using possessions below league average, his presence on offense diverts defensive attention which leads to better looks and quality shots for other players which leads to other players using possessions at an above league average rate. he also turns the ball over at an extremely low rate. i think his overall value on offense is under appreciated.

but no, i wouldn't want the jazz to pay him 16M per year. that's too much.

[Litany]

well, if al signs for 3 years, then even if kanter will get 12M, by that time big al's contract will be off the books already.

i don't think he dominates the ball too much, especially not this year. and he is not the reason our ball movement isn't great - just look at the way everyone moves and make cuts. we don't cut hard at all. this year al kept the ball moving, and bad PG play is much more of an issue.

i don't think big al's using possessions under league average is such a big issue, especially considering our roster. i don't see anyone else being able to put consistent offensive output and anchor our offense every night with better possession usage. not millsap, and certainly not favors or kanter at the moment. furthermore, even if big al is using possessions below league average, his presence on offense diverts defensive attention which leads to better looks and quality shots for other players which leads to other players using possessions at an above league average rate. he also turns the ball over at an extremely low rate. i think his overall value on offense is under appreciated.

but no, i wouldn't want the jazz to pay him 16M per year. that's too much.

Al will be able to get four years from somewhere and he will also be getting $16M. He's getting $15M now. You think he's getting a paycut?

As much as a player might like a place if the difference is us offering $13 versus $16 he's not staying.

As far as usage goes its very much a problem that he uses a possession below league average. The guy taking the most shots is using them below average. That's not an issue? Huh? We will never be anything but treadmill if the guy shooting most is using possessions below league average.





As far as the overlap with Kanter, with a four year deal its two years of Kanters extended deal that they'd overlap. Kanter has two more seasons at Rookie scale then it's the $12million plus.

Jazz mgmt knows this and I think that's why no extension has been offered.

[Inigo Montoya]

Al will be able to get four years from somewhere and he will also be getting $16M. He's getting $15M now. You think he's getting a paycut?

it's not a paycut. he only gets 15M THIS YEAR. he's on a 5 year progressive contract that started at 11M. the average per year during the entire length of the contract is 13M. i think that's close to his value, and i wouldn't mind giving him a 12M-13M deal for 4 years with a team option on the fourth year.

As far as usage goes its very much a problem that he uses a possession below league average. The guy taking the most shots is using them below average. That's not an issue? Huh? We will never be anything but treadmill if the guy shooting most is using possessions below league average.

it is not the biggest and most concerning issue. there is a priority and his possession usage isn't ranked that high in the list of issues with this team in my opinion. every team - including the one that is ending up winning a championship - has issues. show me a player on our roster or even one we can realistically get in free agency who can anchor our offense and be our first offensive option while using possessions more efficiently. i think you're making a too big of a deal of the possession usage stat.

As far as the overlap with Kanter, with a four year deal its two years of Kanters extended deal that they'd overlap. Kanter has two more seasons at Rookie scale then it's the $12million plus.

actually, it will only be ONE YEAR of overlapping contract, as kanter has THREE more years on his rookie deal (unless i'm not understanding the rules correctly and confusing what happens in the last year of the rookie deal, which i might):
http://www.hoopsworld.com/utah-jazz-team-salary

and if we can get a team option on the 4th year of a hypothetical big al contract, that's not a big issue. not to mention the fact that kanter still need to show he'll deserve such a contract.