Current State of Donovan

[SoCalJazzFan]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34378447/boston-celtics-open-top-projected-win-total-followed-suns-warriors-bucks

Knicks projected to win 39 games, be 10th in Eastern Conference (just barely making play-in game)- after signing Brunson.

[AingesBurner]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/34378447/boston-celtics-open-top-projected-win-total-followed-suns-warriors-bucks

Knicks projected to win 39 games, be 10th in Eastern Conference (just barely making play-in game)- after signing Brunson.

just wait if Donovan is in Utah to the start the season and Knicks start 5-10, Brunson average less than 20 PPG. The price for Donovan goes up.

[vryadli]

Donovan is a top 20 player locked up for several years. New York might decide to walk but they aren't the only fish in the sea.

It takes some concentrated efforts to push DM in top 20. And even iacase of success he will be at the the very bottom of top 20.

21-22
BPM: 19th
VORP: 17th
RAPTOR-WAR: 47th
EPM: 20th
LEBRON-WAR: 33rd

20-21
BPM: 19th
VORP: 28th
RAPTOR-WAR: 26th
LEBRON-WAR: 54th

Don't see how it is a stretch.

It's easy, I will show it to you: (19+17+47+20+33)/5 = 27.2 > 20

[babyjax13]

It takes some concentrated efforts to push DM in top 20. And even iacase of success he will be at the the very bottom of top 20.

21-22
BPM: 19th
VORP: 17th
RAPTOR-WAR: 47th
EPM: 20th
LEBRON-WAR: 33rd

20-21
BPM: 19th
VORP: 28th
RAPTOR-WAR: 26th
LEBRON-WAR: 54th

Don't see how it is a stretch.

It's easy, I will show it to you: (19+17+47+20+33)/5 = 27.2 > 20

Or alternatively you could exclude the weird outlier b/c these corrected +/- metrics are really noisy and it would be:

19 + 17 + 20 + 33/4 = 22.25

Or you could see that most of them indicate he's a top 20 player and understand there is a reasonable argument for him being a top 20 player that includes +/- metrics, and the way he has historically elevated his game in the playoffs. etc. etc.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Read on Twitter

[SoCalJazzFan]

RJeff feels strongly enough about it that he gets into it with several Knicks fans in the replies, lol.

[Sweet Meat Lew]

Jazz already have a pick swap in 2026 with the TWolves.

I would add IQ (NY shouldn't care as he won't get much playing time) and Wizards pick and I would do it. 3 unprotected picks, 2 protected picks and 3 young players on par with the 8 FRPs DA has reportedly asked for.

Exactly who do you think DM is? This is a delusional ask. That's a package that I'd only pay for a prime Giannis/Lebron/Curry type. Adding DM doesn't get them anywhere near contending so why would they sell the farm for a one way chucker as if the Melo trade never happened. Q Grimes / Obi have high ceilings. Grimes is probably the in house solution that they need and the longer Utah slow rolls it, the better the chance the Knicks figure it out. Take Herro, Jovic and 3 firsts and filler and tank away. DM makes a ton more sense for MIA but the league won't overpay just because Minny did.

We’ll see. What do you consider high ceilings for Grimes and Toppin? League average starters? I think these teams are fascinating trade partners because I agree that Knicks don’t need to do this trade after they got Brunson, but there’s a pretty good chance that this door closes and another All-Star player won’t be there for the Knicks.

High ceiling as potential all star players with development...or at least good enough to be a key contributor on a contender. My theory is always "if you build it in NY...they will come." If they can show promise on par with where they were a couple years ago...they could draw a big name. They made the short list with KD and Ky. Develop the in house talent and keep throwing at the dart board with the draft picks until you find a gem.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Another segment

Read on Twitter

[Sweet Meat Lew]

Exactly who do you think DM is? This is a delusional ask. That's a package that I'd only pay for a prime Giannis/Lebron/Curry type. Adding DM doesn't get them anywhere near contending so why would they sell the farm for a one way chucker as if the Melo trade never happened. Q Grimes / Obi have high ceilings. Grimes is probably the in house solution that they need and the longer Utah slow rolls it, the better the chance the Knicks figure it out. Take Herro, Jovic and 3 firsts and filler and tank away. DM makes a ton more sense for MIA but the league won't overpay just because Minny did.

FWIW, I think the price Ainge is asking for Mitchell is absurd, but the Gobert trade changed things because what he managed to get for him was also an absurd return, and it set the price for the entire market, hence the asking price for Mitchell and why the entire league essentially stopped making trades once that deal happened, and why Durant is still in Brooklyn (because based on the return the Jazz got for Gobert, Durant should fetch double, which is a price no team can pay).

Having said that, I have to disagree about the assessment of players like Grimes, Toppin, Quickley, etc. None of them have high ceilings imho. None of them are going to be stars or allstars, their ceiling is a starting-caliber player on a good team.

Personally, I'm not that high on any Knick player, other than Grimes who does look interesting and looks like he could develop into a solid starter, but no more than that. And the Jazz have no need for a player like Fournier, who is likely to be traded to another team if the Jazz end up getting him. In fact, I'm actually higher on the Heat's Jovic than any player the Knicks can offer.

In the end, the Jazz doesn't need to trade Mitchell, and if they do, they have 28 other teams they can talk with. While it's true the Knicks is one of the teams who can offer the most (at least in draft compensation), that's really the only advantage they have over other teams (because the Jazz aren't looking to get good established players) and it is only an advantage for them if they are willing to give them away, otherwise they are no more attractive as a trade partner than any other team.

So yes, the price for Mitchell is absurd, but if the Knicks want him that's what they'll have to pay. Historically, the Kicks aren't very good drafters anyway, and if they spend another season going nowhere with around 37 wins or maybe another first round exit in the playoffs, the FO will have to explain to the fans why they chose not to trade for a guy like Mitchell when he was available just so they could keep a FRP in 2029 which the Knicks would likely whiff on anyways (no offense).

Agree with nearly everything. I think Grimes could be special. I think the Knicks true advantage is NY is a major market and home for DM...I assume it's on his short list. A small market will be gun shy on selling the farm just to bring in a disgruntled star that'll walk at the end of his contract. The Knicks horrible draft record might be the reason why they should hold the picks...take as many stabs as possible.

[Sweet Meat Lew]

Exactly who do you think DM is? This is a delusional ask. That's a package that I'd only pay for a prime Giannis/Lebron/Curry type. Adding DM doesn't get them anywhere near contending so why would they sell the farm for a one way chucker as if the Melo trade never happened. Q Grimes / Obi have high ceilings. Grimes is probably the in house solution that they need and the longer Utah slow rolls it, the better the chance the Knicks figure it out. Take Herro, Jovic and 3 firsts and filler and tank away. DM makes a ton more sense for MIA but the league won't overpay just because Minny did.

FWIW, I think the price Ainge is asking for Mitchell is absurd, but the Gobert trade changed things because what he managed to get for him was also an absurd return, and it set the price for the entire market, hence the asking price for Mitchell and why the entire league essentially stopped making trades once that deal happened, and why Durant is still in Brooklyn (because based on the return the Jazz got for Gobert, Durant should fetch double, which is a price no team can pay).

Having said that, I have to disagree about the assessment of players like Grimes, Toppin, Quickley, etc. None of them have high ceilings imho. None of them are going to be stars or allstars, their ceiling is a starting-caliber player on a good team.

Personally, I'm not that high on any Knick player, other than Grimes who does look interesting and looks like he could develop into a solid starter, but no more than that. And the Jazz have no need for a player like Fournier, who is likely to be traded to another team if the Jazz end up getting him. In fact, I'm actually higher on the Heat's Jovic than any player the Knicks can offer.

In the end, the Jazz doesn't need to trade Mitchell, and if they do, they have 28 other teams they can talk with. While it's true the Knicks is one of the teams who can offer the most (at least in draft compensation), that's really the only advantage they have over other teams (because the Jazz aren't looking to get good established players) and it is only an advantage for them if they are willing to give them away, otherwise they are no more attractive as a trade partner than any other team.

So yes, the price for Mitchell is absurd, but if the Knicks want him that's what they'll have to pay. Historically, the Kicks aren't very good drafters anyway, and if they spend another season going nowhere with around 37 wins or maybe another first round exit in the playoffs, the FO will have to explain to the fans why they chose not to trade for a guy like Mitchell when he was available just so they could keep a FRP in 2029 which the Knicks would likely whiff on anyways (no offense).

I think too many people look at the Gobert deal because it involved the Jazz, but I think people could also look at the Dejounte Murray trade as well to see what parts of this trade may look like.

Atlanta traded:

Danilo Galinari (Who the Spurs one have one year at a $13 million dollar number)
2023 Charlotte 1RP (1-16 protected)
2025 Atlanta 1RP (Unprotected)
2027 Atlanta 1RP (Unprotected)

So essentially one FRP that looks like the Detroit pick protection, 2 unprotected.

In a trade for DM, Evan Fournier would have to be involved who would be 2/$37 versus Gallo's buyout at $13 million. That most likely adds another 1RP. They also have to find about 8 million dollars in salary to go with Fournier's hence probably the player of their choice between Toppin, IQ, Grimes.

It's just interesting that in some of these machinations of the trade that Brunson, Randle, Barrett are not going to be in the trade and Toppin and Grimes are off the table? Doesn't seem realistic to me. (Doesn't mean I couldn't see the Knicks saying its too much). I just don't think with what the Jazz are giving up the Jazz won't have some say in one or two of the non Fournier guys coming back to them.

Not saying Topin and Grimes and IQ and Reddish should be off the table. I'm just saying I'm not package all 3 with a boat load of picks. They need to find a home for Randle and go with the youth wave and develop.

[Catchall]

Exactly who do you think DM is? This is a delusional ask. That's a package that I'd only pay for a prime Giannis/Lebron/Curry type. Adding DM doesn't get them anywhere near contending so why would they sell the farm for a one way chucker as if the Melo trade never happened. Q Grimes / Obi have high ceilings. Grimes is probably the in house solution that they need and the longer Utah slow rolls it, the better the chance the Knicks figure it out. Take Herro, Jovic and 3 firsts and filler and tank away. DM makes a ton more sense for MIA but the league won't overpay just because Minny did.

We’ll see. What do you consider high ceilings for Grimes and Toppin? League average starters? I think these teams are fascinating trade partners because I agree that Knicks don’t need to do this trade after they got Brunson, but there’s a pretty good chance that this door closes and another All-Star player won’t be there for the Knicks.

High ceiling as potential all star players with development...or at least good enough to be a key contributor on a contender. My theory is always "if you build it in NY...they will come." If they can show promise on par with where they were a couple years ago...they could draw a big name. They made the short list with KD and Ky. Develop the in house talent and keep throwing at the dart board with the draft picks until you find a gem.

If the Knicks drafted Jalen Williams with their lottery pick this year, which they could have done, I think he'd be the Knicks' best young prospect aside from RJ. Yet, the Knicks punted on their lottery pick to get additional picks to use in a trade. They may regret that decision.

Also, neither Grimes nor Toppin have even a shred of All Star potential. Best case for Toppin is that he develops into a player like John Collins, who is a starter. Best case for Grimes is that he becomes a Deanthony Melton-type 3D guard off the bench for a playoff team. Neither of these two players should be a deal-breaker for either the Knicks or the Jazz. I don't think the Jazz care much about them. I think the Jazz just don't want to take back bad contracts.

[vryadli]

21-22
BPM: 19th
VORP: 17th
RAPTOR-WAR: 47th
EPM: 20th
LEBRON-WAR: 33rd

20-21
BPM: 19th
VORP: 28th
RAPTOR-WAR: 26th
LEBRON-WAR: 54th

Don't see how it is a stretch.

It's easy, I will show it to you: (19+17+47+20+33)/5 = 27.2 > 20

Or alternatively you could exclude the weird outlier b/c these corrected +/- metrics are really noisy and it would be:

19 + 17 + 20 + 33/4 = 22.25

Or you could see that most of them indicate he's a top 20 player and understand there is a reasonable argument for him being a top 20 player that includes +/- metrics, and the way he has historically elevated his game in the playoffs. etc. etc.

Great! I see that you see my point now. Because you MADE Itsome concentrated efforts and it pushed him just to the very bottom of top 20.

[ForeverRDjazz]

FWIW, I think the price Ainge is asking for Mitchell is absurd, but the Gobert trade changed things because what he managed to get for him was also an absurd return, and it set the price for the entire market, hence the asking price for Mitchell and why the entire league essentially stopped making trades once that deal happened, and why Durant is still in Brooklyn (because based on the return the Jazz got for Gobert, Durant should fetch double, which is a price no team can pay).

Having said that, I have to disagree about the assessment of players like Grimes, Toppin, Quickley, etc. None of them have high ceilings imho. None of them are going to be stars or allstars, their ceiling is a starting-caliber player on a good team.

Personally, I'm not that high on any Knick player, other than Grimes who does look interesting and looks like he could develop into a solid starter, but no more than that. And the Jazz have no need for a player like Fournier, who is likely to be traded to another team if the Jazz end up getting him. In fact, I'm actually higher on the Heat's Jovic than any player the Knicks can offer.

In the end, the Jazz doesn't need to trade Mitchell, and if they do, they have 28 other teams they can talk with. While it's true the Knicks is one of the teams who can offer the most (at least in draft compensation), that's really the only advantage they have over other teams (because the Jazz aren't looking to get good established players) and it is only an advantage for them if they are willing to give them away, otherwise they are no more attractive as a trade partner than any other team.

So yes, the price for Mitchell is absurd, but if the Knicks want him that's what they'll have to pay. Historically, the Kicks aren't very good drafters anyway, and if they spend another season going nowhere with around 37 wins or maybe another first round exit in the playoffs, the FO will have to explain to the fans why they chose not to trade for a guy like Mitchell when he was available just so they could keep a FRP in 2029 which the Knicks would likely whiff on anyways (no offense).

I think too many people look at the Gobert deal because it involved the Jazz, but I think people could also look at the Dejounte Murray trade as well to see what parts of this trade may look like.



Atlanta traded:

Danilo Galinari (Who the Spurs one have one year at a $13 million dollar number)
2023 Charlotte 1RP (1-16 protected)
2025 Atlanta 1RP (Unprotected)
2027 Atlanta 1RP (Unprotected)

So essentially one FRP that looks like the Detroit pick protection, 2 unprotected.

In a trade for DM, Evan Fournier would have to be involved who would be 2/$37 versus Gallo's buyout at $13 million. That most likely adds another 1RP. They also have to find about 8 million dollars in salary to go with Fournier's hence probably the player of their choice between Toppin, IQ, Grimes.

It's just interesting that in some of these machinations of the trade that Brunson, Randle, Barrett are not going to be in the trade and Toppin and Grimes are off the table? Doesn't seem realistic to me. (Doesn't mean I couldn't see the Knicks saying its too much). I just don't think with what the Jazz are giving up the Jazz won't have some say in one or two of the non Fournier guys coming back to them.

Not saying Topin and Grimes and IQ and Reddish should be off the table. I'm just saying I'm not package all 3 with a boat load of picks. They need to find a home for Randle and go with the youth wave and develop.

Hello Knicks fan. I'm just coming off 3 day ban for trolling in your forum. Not to sure why this happened and why your here posting freely? I feel the ban was wrong and wouldn't ask for you to be banned. I remember DM rookie year and the electricity he brought to every game. It was like wow this kid is amazing. Home town trade for this kid. Wow. That feeling will be something the Knicks haven't felt in years. Major electricity and other star players see this and Mitchell going there. Like RJ says. First domino has fallen and know you go out sign big free agent.

Sad home town kid / star cost little to much, one more pick and now your hoping one of your picks become the player Mitchell already is. Mitchell will remember you had me three years earlier and didn't feel I was worth that second round pick? Why in the hell would he now want to go play there? I'm GM for NY I'm getting Mitchell. Like RJ says taking the shot and missing is better than never taking the shot and wishing you had. My RJ is Richard Jefferson.

[babyjax13]

It's easy, I will show it to you: (19+17+47+20+33)/5 = 27.2 > 20

Or alternatively you could exclude the weird outlier b/c these corrected +/- metrics are really noisy and it would be:

19 + 17 + 20 + 33/4 = 22.25

Or you could see that most of them indicate he's a top 20 player and understand there is a reasonable argument for him being a top 20 player that includes +/- metrics, and the way he has historically elevated his game in the playoffs. etc. etc.

Great! I see that you see my point now. Because you MADE Itsome concentrated efforts and it pushed him just to the very bottom of top 20.

It's *concerted,* and no, I did not. He is top 20 in a majority of impact metrics, therefore top 20. Being 20th (which ironically is right where I have him on my personal list) is still top 20.

[vryadli]

Or alternatively you could exclude the weird outlier b/c these corrected +/- metrics are really noisy and it would be:

19 + 17 + 20 + 33/4 = 22.25

Or you could see that most of them indicate he's a top 20 player and understand there is a reasonable argument for him being a top 20 player that includes +/- metrics, and the way he has historically elevated his game in the playoffs. etc. etc.

Great! I see that you see my point now. Because you MADE Itsome concentrated efforts and it pushed him just to the very bottom of top 20.

It's *concerted,* and no, I did not. He is top 20 in a majority of impact metrics, therefore top 20. Being 20th (which ironically is right where I have him on my personal list) is still top 20.

con·cen·trat·ed
ADJECTIVE
wholly directed to one thing; intense:
"a concentrated campaign"

[babyjax13]

Great! I see that you see my point now. Because you MADE Itsome concentrated efforts and it pushed him just to the very bottom of top 20.

It's *concerted,* and no, I did not. He is top 20 in a majority of impact metrics, therefore top 20. Being 20th (which ironically is right where I have him on my personal list) is still top 20.

con·cen·trat·ed
ADJECTIVE
wholly directed to one thing; intense:
"a concentrated campaign"

Sorry, I'm being an ass.

Anyway, back to the point:
I think I have laid out evidence that indicates saying Mitchell is a top 20 player isn't unreasonable, and it certainly isn't making an extreme effort to justify that. I think he's top 20, he elevates his game in the playoffs, he is a primary scoring option who make plays, he scores on above average efficiency on difficult shots, he is top 20 on a majority of impact metrics. Beyond that he plays out of position and would, IMO, be more efficient and look like a better defender if he primarily defended 1s instead of 2s. If I were making this argument about Bojan, sure, it would be me really abusing impact metrics/statistics and the eye test to make the claim - but that's not it.

[vryadli]

:
I think I have laid out evidence that indicates saying Mitchell is a top 20 player isn't unreasonable, and it certainly isn't making an extreme effort to justify that. I think he's top 20, he elevates his game in the playoffs, he is a primary scoring option who make plays, he scores on above average efficiency on difficult shots, he is top 20 on a majority of impact metrics. Beyond that he plays out of position and would, IMO, be more efficient and look like a better defender if he primarily defended 1s instead of 2s. If I were making this argument about Bojan, sure, it would be me really abusing impact metrics/statistics and the eye test to make the claim - but that's not it.

And I didn't object against placing him in bottom 20, did I? But being 18-20 player, and with with rather common skill set at that (quite a few of younger stars play more or less in same role) how you can expect mammoth trade price? OK New York is stupid and ddi crazy trades in past, but I don't see any other team paying even close to the Rudy delal.

[Crunch 99]

I saw this post below on the General Board yesterday. One of these two players seems to have a much better star image than the other, but many of their stats are quite similar. Player A just finished 4th for MVP votes. Player A became a better, more committed defensive player last season --- in his seventh season. Gobert praised him for stepping up his defense. I think Mitchell is capable of playing better defense as well if he commits to it. I also suspect Mitchell would be more effective if he played with the other guy's surrounding cast.

Per 100 Possessions
Player A:
37.4 points, 6.8 assists, 7.0 rebounds, 57.6ts%, 113 O Rating, 109 D Rating, 3.6 VORP, 4.1 BPM, .156 WS/48, 32.0 USG%

Player B:
37.8 points, 7.8 assists, 6.2 rebounds, 57.2 ts%, 114 O Rating, 111 D Rating, 3.6 VORP, 4.3 BPM, .152 WS/48, 32.9 USG%

Spoiler:

Player A is Devin Booker, Player B is Donovan Mitchell, both are 25 years old

[SoCalJazzFan]

I saw this post below on the General Board yesterday. One of these two players seems to have a much better star image than the other, but many of their stats are quite similar. Player A just finished 4th for MVP votes. Player A became a better, more committed defensive player last season --- in his seventh season. Gobert praised him for stepping up his defense. I think Mitchell is capable of playing better defense as well if he commits to it. I also suspect Mitchell would be more effective if he played with the other guy's surrounding cast.

Per 100 Possessions
Player A:
37.4 points, 6.8 assists, 7.0 rebounds, 57.6ts%, 113 O Rating, 109 D Rating, 3.6 VORP, 4.1 BPM, .156 WS/48, 32.0 USG%

Player B:
37.8 points, 7.8 assists, 6.2 rebounds, 57.2 ts%, 114 O Rating, 111 D Rating, 3.6 VORP, 4.3 BPM, .152 WS/48, 32.9 USG%

Spoiler:

Player A is Devin Booker, Player B is Donovan Mitchell, both are 25 years old

I have to wonder if Quinn's system of funneling everyting to Gobert made the other players on the team lazy, or if their perceived laziness was part of what the coaching staff wanted them to do. Mitchell started his career out as a fantastic defender. I'm not sure if it is the system, him conserving energy to use on the offensive end, a combination or what.

[SoCalJazzFan]

It would be super interesting if Mitchell isn't traded and the Jazz pivot, such as getting Myles Turner.