2023 Trade Rumors

[Inigo Montoya]

How would you feel about sending Agbaji and #16 to ORL for #6?

Am I way overrating Agbaji? ORL needs a solid but unspectacular 3&D at the 2. ORL is now building around the strengths of Paolo and Franz inside/out game.

I'd do it if Whitmore is still on the board at #6.

[Hoops Addict]

How would you feel about sending Agbaji and #16 to ORL for #6?

It depends. Who do we take at #6? Walker?

[bkohler]

I’d be all over that deal. I like Agbaji but his upside is pretty limited. If I could get Whitmore or Hendricks at six I’d do it and pray the other is there at 9.

[Hoops Addict]

https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/news/controversial-trade-rumors-2023-jazz-draft

The Jazz decide to go all in on a top-three pick
Utah Jazz receive: 3rd-overall pick, Anfernee Simons

Portland Trail Blazers receive: Lauri Markkanen, 28th-overall pick

[Hoops Addict]

2. Jazz capitalize on Rockets’ preparation to welcome back James Harden
Utah Jazz receive: 4th-overall pick, 2024 second-round pick

Houston Rockets receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Collin Sexton, Simone Fontecchio, 2027 CLE first-round pick

All signs currently point to the Rockets planning on the return of Harden back to H-Town. As a result, the team could opt to surround him with more extensive talent than the roster currently has. This trade effectively gives them three key contributing pieces to the rotation, including Sexton and two top-20 selections, only for the cost of moving down 5 slots and one of their four 2024 second-round picks.

[Hoops Addict]

"Like this? I do.

3. The Magic trade down to acquire more first-round talent
Utah Jazz receive: 6th-overall pick, 36th-overall pick, Jonathan Isaac

Orlando Magic receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay

[Inigo Montoya]

"Like this? I do.

3. The Magic trade down to acquire more first-round talent
Utah Jazz receive: 6th-overall pick, 36th-overall pick, Jonathan Isaac

Orlando Magic receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay

I'd do this trade. The previous two, I wouldn't.

The trade with Portland: I don't see the point in trading Markkanen, I think the Jazz should find players to play with him.

The trade with Houston: feels like an overpay. It's a trade I'd do for the #3 pick, assuming Scoot was available, or if somehow he's still on the board at #4.

[Crunch 99]

ask yourself: does Markkanen or a top-three draft pick have the better chance of being the best player on a championship team? Nine times out of ten, you’re going with the latter.

Wrong. Nine times out of ten, including this draft, I am taking bird in the hand Lauri Markkanen over gambling that the #3 pick will be turn out to be as good or better than Markkanen.

"Like this? I do.

3. The Magic trade down to acquire more first-round talent
Utah Jazz receive: 6th-overall pick, 36th-overall pick, Jonathan Isaac

Orlando Magic receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay

Yes!

[Crunch 99]

Going in to the All Star break, sixty games in to the season, only 1/2 game separated the Jazz and Trailblazers. The thought of the Jazz now rewarding the Blazers, giving up lots of assets to get their #3 pick, mostly because Coach Hardy was a superior coach at getting competitive play out of reserves the last 22 games than Coach Billups was at Portland, really bugs me. Portland then got lucky in the lottery too.

Post All Star break, out of both teams' top three season scorers, Lillard played 12 games, Grant 9 games and Simmons 6 games; for the Jazz, Markkanen played 12 games, Clarkson 3 games and Sexton 1 game. Jazz finished four games ahead of Portland.

[Skybox]

"Like this? I do.

3. The Magic trade down to acquire more first-round talent
Utah Jazz receive: 6th-overall pick, 36th-overall pick, Jonathan Isaac

Orlando Magic receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay

I almost like it, but ORL would need a young Agbaji rather than Gay. Isaac is a BIG X factor here...if he's healthy, this is far from fair. If he's not...maybe it's also far from fair the other way. I like Olynk and Agbaji with 9 & 16.

If ORL chases FVV, we could offer Fultz...I don't see a young PG on your roster

ORL sends...Fultz, #6, #36, DEN 25 frp
UTA sends...Olynk, Agbaji, #9, #16

[AingesBurner]

"Like this? I do.

3. The Magic trade down to acquire more first-round talent
Utah Jazz receive: 6th-overall pick, 36th-overall pick, Jonathan Isaac

Orlando Magic receive: 9th-overall pick, 16th-overall pick, Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gay

I almost like it, but ORL would need a young Agbaji rather than Gay. Isaac is a BIG X factor here...if he's healthy, this is far from fair. If he's not...maybe it's also far from fair the other way. I like Olynk and Agbaji with 9 & 16.

If ORL chases FVV, we could offer Fultz...I don't see a young PG on your roster

ORL sends...Fultz, #6, #36, DEN 25 frp
UTA sends...Olynk, Agbaji, #9, #16

I don’t see it from Utah, Isaac is injured again. The guy just cannot stay healthy so I’m out on both iterations.

[vryadli]

ask yourself: does Markkanen or a top-three draft pick have the better chance of being the best player on a championship team? Nine times out of ten, you’re going with the latter.

Wrong. Nine times out of ten, including this draft, I am taking bird in the hand Lauri Markkanen over gambling that the #3 pick will be turn out to be as good or better than Markkanen.

!

I think people who like lottery games tend to subconsciously mix 2 ve-ery different things like

a) One (any, at least one) of 3 top picks in some draft will be better than LM
b) exactly one 3-d peck in a exactly one predefined draft will be better than LM.

First is very probable, may be even really 90% but has nothing to do with real draft options of a single NBA team.
Second - given injury, work ethic, personality issues is no higher than 20% and rather around 10% - like you said.

[BigJimFinn]

ask yourself: does Markkanen or a top-three draft pick have the better chance of being the best player on a championship team? Nine times out of ten, you’re going with the latter.

Wrong. Nine times out of ten, including this draft, I am taking bird in the hand Lauri Markkanen over gambling that the #3 pick will be turn out to be as good or better than Markkanen.

!

I think people who like lottery games tend to subconsciously mix 2 ve-ery different things like

a) One (any, at least one) of 3 top picks in some draft will be better than LM
b) exactly one 3-d peck in a exactly one predefined draft will be better than LM.

First is very probable, may be even really 90% but has nothing to do with real draft options of a single NBA team.
Second - given injury, work ethic, personality issues is no higher than 20% and rather around 10% - like you said.

I actually went through the last 20 drafts comparing the 3rd picks to Lauri, since that 20% felt low to me and I needed something to delay starting with a boring assignment.
The result:
5/20 clearly superior players (Melo, Harden, Embiid, Tatum, Luka)
6/20 players whose career/expectation looks as good or better than Lauri (now and projected career)
(Deron Williams, Al Horford, Bradley Beal, Jaylen Brown, LaMelo, Evan Mobley)
Among the rest, a few flops (OJ Mayo, Adam Morrison, Jahlil Okafor) and mostly solid guys.
I'm not doing it now, but this feels like 3rd picks have provided better value than 1s and 2s,
so these results may not reflect true EV of the 3rd pick. But historically, this decision is more like a coin flip.
This draft, I'm probably not taking that coin flip for Scoot or Miller.

The OP framed the question differently and very narrowly. I don't think Lauri has a realistic chance to be
the best player on a championship team, so by that logic you would trade him for the 3rd pick, but by the
same logic you should trade any player but maybe 10 guys for any pick, say the 41st overall.
This is true lottery logic: my chance of becoming a multimillionare by other means is basically zero, so I should
spend all my money on megapot tickets, right? Maybe not in the real world, where other outcomes in between have value.
Most NBA franchises don't operate on championship-or-bust logic.

EDIT: Took me some time to realize that all those 11 better picks have won exactly 0 rings combined, so it really doesn't matter.

[bkohler]

I think the under current from a bunch of the conversations about trading Lauri is due to the fear of him not resigning in two years. As a fan base I think we’re a little bit shell shocked by both GH and Donovan pushing their way out.

The fear Lauri could walk for absolutely nothing in two years is what makes the 3rd pick and potentially 7 years of team control appealing. Also I love Lauri, but I’m not certain he’s worth the super max that it will take to keep him, which is another input to the conversation.

I completely get the opposing argument which is why I think it would come down to the conversations the Jazz are having behind the scenes. If they have a hint that he’ll walk I could see them making a trade while his value is highest.

[AingesBurner]

I think the under current from a bunch of the conversations about trading Lauri is due to the fear of him not resigning in two years. As a fan base I think we’re a little bit shell shocked by both GH and Donovan pushing their way out.

The fear Lauri could walk for absolutely nothing in two years is what makes the 3rd pick and potentially 7 years of team control appealing. Also I love Lauri, but I’m not certain he’s worth the super max that it will take to keep him, which is another input to the conversation.

I completely get the opposing argument which is why I think it would come down to the conversations the Jazz are having behind the scenes. If they have a hint that he’ll walk I could see them making a trade while his value is highest.

Lauri is not supermax eligible I believe. I doubt he will walk when he was worried about getting traded and then Ainge told him to buy a house. Ainge is not going to let a 7 foot wing walk with Lauri’s intangibles, especially for an unknown rookie.

[Hoops Addict]

https://www.slcdunk.com/platform/amp/nba-draft/2023/5/28/23738303/should-the-utah-jazz-trade-up-in-the-2023-nba-draft-here-are-some-trade-ideas-for-the-jazz?fbclid=IwAR1hIcmJ5w-qy4RquqLCkKByi355aR30W5d9IljFidWoIP-58jaXhSMW7rs

[vryadli]

Wrong. Nine times out of ten, including this draft, I am taking bird in the hand Lauri Markkanen over gambling that the #3 pick will be turn out to be as good or better than Markkanen.

!

I think people who like lottery games tend to subconsciously mix 2 ve-ery different things like

a) One (any, at least one) of 3 top picks in some draft will be better than LM
b) exactly one 3-d peck in a exactly one predefined draft will be better than LM.

First is very probable, may be even really 90% but has nothing to do with real draft options of a single NBA team.
Second - given injury, work ethic, personality issues is no higher than 20% and rather around 10% - like you said.

I actually went through the last 20 drafts comparing the 3rd picks to Lauri, since that 20% felt low to me and I needed something to delay starting with a boring assignment.
The result:
5/20 clearly superior players (Melo, Harden, Embiid, Tatum, Luka)
6/20 players whose career/expectation looks as good or better than Lauri (now and projected career)
(Deron Williams, Al Horford, Bradley Beal, Jaylen Brown, LaMelo, Evan Mobley)
Among the rest, a few flops (OJ Mayo, Adam Morrison, Jahlil Okafor) and mostly solid guys.
I'm not doing it now, but this feels like 3rd picks have provided better value than 1s and 2s,
so these results may not reflect true EV of the 3rd pick. But historically, this decision is more like a coin flip.
This draft, I'm probably not taking that coin flip for Scoot or Miller.

The OP framed the question differently and very narrowly. I don't think Lauri has a realistic chance to be
the best player on a championship team, so by that logic you would trade him for the 3rd pick, but by the
same logic you should trade any player but maybe 10 guys for any pick, say the 41st overall.
This is true lottery logic: my chance of becoming a multimillionare by other means is basically zero, so I should
spend all my money on megapot tickets, right? Maybe not in the real world, where other outcomes in between have value.
Most NBA franchises don't operate on championship-or-bust logic.

EDIT: Took me some time to realize that all those 11 better picks have won exactly 0 rings combined, so it really doesn't matter.

Pretty nice analysis. I have some doubt's about some fellas being better than LM if you take into account personality, but it is samll change. After your post I agree that it is not 20%. maybi 20-40 for better than and 30-50 for same or better.

I'm not going to even start to dicsuss championship issues, there too many random factors involved, as your note shows very convincingly. I only add that it looks tthat for being best player on championship team personality matter more than for other plyers role. I can imagine that most flashy and athletic player in the league can be really not a good fit for that role. If we talk about the very top. bad locker room presence can nullify almost any individual skill points.

[Hoops Addict]

Option #1 Trade with Portland Trail Blazers for either Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson
Lauri Markkanen for the #3 and Anfernee Simons


This would be a tough move, but, as I said, this is what it would take to get to the #3 spot in the draft. Portland might be willing to consider this with how good Lauri Markkanen has become in Utah, and with how young he is, along with his contract, it makes him a perfect fit playing with Dame. If the Jazz believe either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller are the #1 option they’re looking for, this would possibly get that done.

Option #2: Get the Twins
This might be my favorite scenario outside of the Jazz having won the lottery and picking Victor Wembanyama.

It’s a pair of moves that allow the Jazz to exchange Lauri Markkanen and their #9 and #16 for Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson. Here’s how it would work.

Part 1: Lauri Markkanen for Jae’Sean Tate, Tari Eason, and the #4 Pick, which becomes Amen Thompson


Part 2: Utah Jazz trade the 2023 #9 and the 2023 #16 for the Indiana Pacers 2023 #7 pick, which becomes Ausar Thompson


This also is a high-risk move that would move the Jazz’s star player, Lauri Markkanen. With Houston likely going after James Harden, they’re probably interested in having a player like Markkanen to play off of Harden to take their team to another level. Markkanen is the perfect #2 and would be exactly the type of player to play with Harden. Markkanen also has a very good contract that wouldn’t take too much of Houston’s cap space they want to use for Harden. On top of that, the Jazz would get some additional young prospects to grow in Will Hardy’s system.

Because the Pacers didn’t win the lottery, they may be interested in getting two picks in #9 and #16 than just the #7. That gives them more young prospects to grow with Tyrese Haliburton, and with how deep this draft is, they may be excited to get two good prospects instead of just one.

For Utah, this is a trade they make believing they can get the most out of the Thompson twins and, by keeping them together, likely makes Utah a place they would like to be long term if they grow into the superstars the Jazz are hoping for. The potential for these two is through the roof with their size, length, and otherworldly athleticism. Do the Jazz believe that Will Hardy and his coaching staff can bring out the full potential of the Thompson Twins? The combination of the two could constitute that #1 option the Jazz are looking for and would likely keep them long term. The other benefit to this move is that the Jazz would keep their treasure trove of picks and could continue to add to their core of Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Ochai Agbaji, and Walker Kessler.

[SoCalJazzFan]

https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/news/controversial-trade-rumors-2023-jazz-draft

The Jazz decide to go all in on a top-three pick
Utah Jazz receive: 3rd-overall pick, Anfernee Simons

Portland Trail Blazers receive: Lauri Markkanen, 28th-overall pick

In June of 2017, many people were convinced that some of these players (top 10 2017 draft) were going to lift their team to contender status. How many would you trade significant assets for now?

1. Markelle Fultz
2.Lonzo Ball
3. JaysonTatum
4. Josh Jackson
5. De'Aaron Fox
6. Jonathan Isaac
7. Lauri Markkanen
8. Frank Ntilikina
9. Dennis Smith Jr.
10.Zach Collins

[Gert42]

I just don't think I'm interested in see the Jazz trying to move Lauri right now. I think I want to see if last year is replicable and I just don't know if I love the message it would send to the rest of the team if you move an all-star caliber player on a team that honestly exceeded expectations last year.