Let's Review KOC's draft decisions

[eLo]

What about Paul Milsap? Plucking him out of the 2nd round should count for something, right?

KOC has done pretty well. Consider how many constant bottom dwelling teams have screwed up top 3 picks over and over again. We may not be the Spurs, but we certainly aren't the Bobcats. To those that think they could do better, go play NBA2k13 or something... in your moms basement...

Millsap was picked because of Mailman advertise, from what i know. But to the point O'Connor is not bad gm but he is not great neither, he is overrated by many, overall 13 years tenure and we got 1 lucky wcf, i know small makret bla bla bla etc. but for me its not great result. As we see his draft decision was not great, he made couple critical mistakes completing roster( Boozer and same time AK max deal; letting go KK and Wes which was a result of signing for new big contract Memo), of course it could be much worse, smith; king are horrible when you compare them to O'connor, but overall when it comes to assessing i will give him B- and that is max what he can get.

[StocktonShorts]

It's draft season again so I'm going to shamelessly bump this thread.

It seems to me that KOC is like a contact hitter in baseball: hits for a good average with lots of singles and doubles. Rarely hits home runs.

[spoonhoops]

I'm looking at a single or fielders choice for Lindsay and team this draft.

[StocktonShorts]

I'm looking at a single or fielders choice for Lindsay and team this draft.

Was that what the Ryan Humphrey/Curtis Borchardt trade was? Or is that more like the Nazr Mohammed pick?

[StocktonShorts]

Someone earlier in this thread suggested I do a similar "analysis" for other teams. I'm not going to do every other team, but I'd do 5-6. Any suggestions?

[Denizfeital]

Nice topic to talk about.

I know its easier said than done, but out of the list, there were few "sure things" like Chris Paul and some others. About Chris Paul, I would not say it was a failure draft Williams, but we did not choose the best player. What about Marvin Williams and Bogut ahead of him?

Lets look at Tony Parker. He was drafted at 28. Twenty Eight spot. I would say its not "only" KOC fault but there were probably 25 pics ahead of him taken mistakenly. Twenty five its a monster number of wrong choices in the same draft.

I love to look back and see our choices. I think when you are out of the top five pics, it has a lot to do with lucky than anything else. I know they pay scouts to do their jobs, but if they are getting plenty of money to do it, I would say its not their failure, but a failure of those who are paying them

I feel sorry I do not know all the players who are entering the draft, I can`t even make my own selection and see how I would do as a GM. One question I have for you guys: What do you think that guy Noel in this draft? I am terrified if The Jazz had a chance to pic him. I really don't like choosing guys who had injuries in the past. He looks like a high risk at top 1 or 2 pic.

Regards,

[Fido]

82games.com has a nice statistical analysis showing the odds of getting a good player at different spots in the draft WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight:
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

So let's look over the Jazz picks and see what the odds are that Kevin O'Connor gets a decent player:

2000
23. DeShawn Stevenson
24. Dalibor Bagaric
25. Jake Tsakalidis
26. Mamadou N'Diaye
27. Primoz Brezac

DeShawn is pretty easily the best player of this group.

Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

2001
24. Raul Lopez
25. Gerald Wallace
26. Samuel Dalembert
27. Jamaal Tinsley
28. Tony Parker

Ouch. This one really hurts. Amazing that all four guys not named Raul Lopez are still regular rotation players (most of them starters).

Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

2002
18. Curtis Borchardt (I'm going to pretend like this was our pick, since we essentially traded 19 for 18)
19. Ryan Humphrey
20. Kareem Rush
21. Qyntel Woods
22. Casey Jacobsen

Rough group. I can't really fault the Jazz on this one. Borchardt could've been a decent player if not for injuries. Based on Winshares/48 minutes Jacobsen comes out on top of this poor group, and I'd probably put Borchardt 3rd, behind Kareem Rush.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars.

2003
19. Sasha Pavlovic
20. Dahntay Jones
21. Boris Diaw
22. Zoran Planinic
23. Travis Outlaw

I think Diaw wins this group, followed by Jones, then Outlaw, then Pavlovic. So Jazz got the 4th best guy from this group.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars.

2004
* I'm going to include all 15 picks starting with Humphries since the Jazz had 3 picks
14. Kris Humphries
15. Al Jefferson
16. Kirk Snyder
17. Josh Smith
18. J.R. Smith
19. Dorell Wright
20. Jameer Nelson
21. Pavel Podkolzin
22. Viktor Khryapa
23. Sergei Monia
24. Delonte West
25. Tony Allen
26. Kevin Martin
27. Sasha Vujacic
28. Beno Udrih

Jazz do pretty poorly here, landing only one rotation player in three tries out of a group of 15 that features several one-time or near All-Stars (Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin) and several solid rotation guys (Humphries, J.R. Smith, Tony Allen). With two of the top three picks of this group of 15 the Jazz only landed one rotation guy, none of the near-stars and that one guy they traded after one year.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars. Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

2005
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Raymond Felton
6. Martell Webster
7. Charlie Villanueva

Perhaps the best draft on KOC's resume, and you can argue he screwed it up by not drafting Paul, who will go down as the best PG of this generation. At least the Jazz got the second best player from this group. It's better than their average.

the first five picks tend towards stars and solid types with no complete busts.

2006
14. Ronnie Brewer
15. Cedric Simmons
16. Rodney Carney
17. Shawne Williams
18. Oleksiv Pecherov

Jazz win this one pretty easily.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars.

2007
25. Morris Almond
26. Aaron Brooks
27. Arron Afflalo
28. Tiago Splitter
29. Alando Tucker

Again, ouch. Jazz end up with clearly the worst guy from this quintet.

Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

2008
23. Kosta Koufos
24. Serge Ibaka
25. Nicolas Batum
26. George Hill
27. Darrell Arthur

Jazz get either the 4th best or 5th best player from this group and miss out on three quality starters.

Late first round (21-30) only 6% of picks become stars, and less than half even make it to role player caliber stats.

2009
20. Eric Maynor
21. Darren Collison
22. Victor Claver
23. Omri Casspi
24. Byron Mullens

Maynor is probably 3rd best in this group if you're being generous.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars.

2010
9. Gordon Hayward
10. Paul George
11. Cole Aldrich
12. Xavier Henry
13. Ed Davis

It looks like the Jazz have the second-best player from this group. We all love Hayward, but Paul George just made the All-Star team. For me, this one smarts a little, but at least we didn't draft Aldrich or Henry.

The 6-10 range show about 1/3 of the picks reaching star status, but lots of role players as well.

2011a
3. Enes Kanter
4. Tristan Thompson
5. Jonas Valanciunas
6. Jan Vesely
7. Bismack Biyombo

It's too early to tell, given how raw all of these guys are, but I think Kanter will end up being the best player from this group. If he's second, it will be to Valanciunas. I'm grateful we didn't grab Vesely.

the first five picks tend towards stars and solid types with no complete busts.

2011b
12. Alec Burks
13. Markieff Morris
14. Marcus Morris
15. Kawhi Leonard
16. Nikola Vucevic

Again, too early to tell, but Leonard looks like the class of this group. Burks could play himself into the second spot, but right now he's probably fourth behind guys who have gotten more consistent PT.

The mid first round (11-20) is much more a crap shoot with as many busts as stars.

I just tacked on the summary for each range in which the player was picked to get some expectations of how people do drafting at those spots. Sometimes KOC is above expectations but seems to usually be right on statistically--and rarely below--and almost never is completely off. I'd also say you have to give KOC a pass on Raul Lopez since nobody can predict future injuries where there was no history of them at all. Borchardt you don't because he had a history and all admitted it was a gamble--but at that spot you are willing to gamble on a guy who fell quite a way from where he was predicted.

[StocktonShorts]

82games.com has a nice statistical analysis showing the odds of getting a good player at different spots in the draft WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight:
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Thanks for posting that; it's an interesting way to try to quantify expectations, but I'm not sure it's the best way to measure success in each specific draft, since the quality from draft to draft will vary significantly.

"Hindsight" seems to be a dirty word with some people when it comes to evaluating past drafts, but how else are you supposed to evaluate how you did? On the radio the other day Kevin O'Connor mentioned that every year the Jazz staff looks back and evaluates how they've done in previous drafts. He even specifically referenced the Hayward/George decision and he even dropped the H-word.

http://1280thezone.com/index.php/audio/ ... n_oconnor3

The part I'm referencing starts at about the 9:00 minute mark.

[Inigo Montoya]

He even specifically referenced the Hayward/George decision and he even dropped the H-word.

is the H-word "HolyHellHowDidIPickHaywardOverGeorge?!"?

just having fun though. i like hayward a lot.

[StocktonShorts]

Any ideas for comparable teams? Houston? Memphis? Denver? Golden State? San Antonio?

[Inigo Montoya]

the spurs will make everyone look bad, it's just not fair. memphis and GS might work. though memphis became good through trades more than draft picks.

[Fido]

82games.com has a nice statistical analysis showing the odds of getting a good player at different spots in the draft WITHOUT the benefit of hindsight:
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Thanks for posting that; it's an interesting way to try to quantify expectations, but I'm not sure it's the best way to measure success in each specific draft, since the quality from draft to draft will vary significantly.

"Hindsight" seems to be a dirty word with some people when it comes to evaluating past drafts, but how else are you supposed to evaluate how you did? On the radio the other day Kevin O'Connor mentioned that every year the Jazz staff looks back and evaluates how they've done in previous drafts. He even specifically referenced the Hayward/George decision and he even dropped the H-word.

http://1280thezone.com/index.php/audio/ ... n_oconnor3

The part I'm referencing starts at about the 9:00 minute mark.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying looking at the past is a bad thing. I just think there is so many factors that from a fan's perspective it is kind of tough to give a fair rating. Take Raul Lopez for example. Nobody could predict that knee injuries would destroy his NBA career before it even started. So was it a bad pick? I'd call it back luck more than a bad pick. Or even Deron Williams vs. Chris Paul. Did the Jazz make a bad pick? It is very tough to say yes on that one (look at picks #1 and #2).

Here is another way I've seen the draft evaluated which is kind of interesting too:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... iew/090624

They compare the top 10 picks with the top 10 players taken in that draft in hindsight. Then rate the best and worst picks and some general observations. From 2000-2008 (the last year reviewed in that article), the Jazz are mentioned a couple of times. In 2003 they get a mention for getting the #9 ranked talent (Mo Williams) at the 47th pick. In 2005 another mention for taking the #2 ranked talent at #3. On the down side, the #1 talent (Chris Paul) went #4--AFTER the Jazz picked. But overall it was a solid pick. In 2006 the Jazz get #6 talent Paul Millsap with the 47th pick and #7 talent Ronnie Brewer with the 14th pick.

And even if you go back to the first lottery in 1985, the Jazz get props for taking #1 talent Karl Malone at 13th pick, in 1986 for taking the #9 talent Dell Curry with the 15th pick, in 1993 for taking the #6 talent Bryon Russell with the 45th pick, and in 1999 for picking up #9 talent Andrei Kirilenko with the 24th pick.

Overall, the Jazz have picked better than their draft position--though never enjoyed many top 10 draft positions where it is "make or break" picks. When they have been there they have been good.