1st Off: In my numbers I am including any player who ever made an All Star appearance. Whether the player made it one time, or 10 times.
2nd: I am purposely omitting All Star appearances for any players drafted from 2006-2009. Players just haven't been in the league long enough to give us a real sense of who will become an All Star from these drafts, even though some have become All Stars already (Roy, Rose etc).
3rd: These numbers therefore reflect drafts from 1990-2005 a total of 16 years.
Picks 1-3: 28 All Stars
Picks 4-6: 20 All Stars
Picks 7-10: 10 All Stars (Interestingly: 1 @ 7, 1 @ 8, 4 @ 9, 4 @ 10)
Picks 11-15: 6 All Stars
Picks 16-20: 9 All Stars
Picks 21-30: 8 All Stars
Picks 31-45: 6 All Stars
Picks 46-60: 3 All Stars
90 Total All Stars over 16 years or 5.62 All Stars a year.
Least Amount of All Stars from a single draft: 2000- 2, 2005 & 1990- 3
Most Amount of All Stars from a single draft: 1996- 11, 1999- 10
The numbers I think that we should key on here is how many All Stars have been chosen over 16 years between 9-30 and that number is 31, 40 if you want to include the 2nd round, but for our discussion I won't include these players. Basically, there are 2 All-Stars chosen every year between 9-30. There is .5 All Stars chosen every year with the 9th & 10th picks. However, I think these numbers are scewed upward by the fact that many of these players (Parker, Ak, Nowitzki, etc.) were Euro's that teams didn't scout as well from 1990-2005. Also, several of these players were High Schoolers who were drafted on potential later in the draft (9-30), and now they are forced to go to college and prove their top 8 status.
Do we really think Nowitzki would have made it to the #9 pick in any of the more recent drafts? How about Kobe?
I don't know all the answers, but it is food for thought. My only point being is that all teams, especially since 2002 forward have really sharpened their international scouting, and fewer players go unnoticed.
I believe in todays drafting world, the drafting world of the last 5 drafts; that the number of All Stars to slip into the 9-30 range will go down from 2 a year to 1 or 1.5. I believe this will be the case because High Schoolers can't come out anymore, and international scouting is better.
What does all of this mean?
It is going to be more difficult for the Jazz management to find that gem, who can become a star. Is he in this draft? I don't think so. We can hope for success because the Jazz did draft one of the 2nd round All Stars (Mo Williams) and other very good contributors in the second round or undrafted players (Shandon Anderson, Bryon Russell, Millsap, etc). They also, through their system and coaching have made two other 2nd rounders, and one late first rounder into All Stars (Boozer, Okur, and AK).
I think this draft has good depth, but I don't think this draft has more than 5.62 All Stars. If I had to bet an over or under on that 5.62 average of All Stars per draft over the last 16 years, I would probably take the under. I say 3 or 4, and unfortunately those 3 or 4 are most likely in the top 5.
So, lets hope we hit a home run, but lets also be realistic about what this 9th pick will generate. I would be happy with a Theo Ratliff type, but then again Theo Ratliff was an All Star picked at 18!
