Kevin O'Connor's trends in the draft
Posted: Sat Jun 26, 2010 5:13 pm
Since the drafting of Gordon Hayward a lot of people are questioning Kevin O’Connor as GM. A lot of it has to do with the fact that since reaching the conference finals in 2007 they are yet to win a championship – or even to get as far in the playoffs.
O’Connor and the Draft
Kevin O’Connor has four kinds of players that he often seems to target in the draft. First is small forwards and shooting guards that can handle the ball – second is players that have a “nose for the ball”, next is players that spread the floor (especially centers in recent years after the success of Okur), and lastly is point guards (he really doesn’t seem to target just one type of point guard).
Ball Handlers
Quincy Lewis (1999), Andrei Kirilenko (1999), DeShawn Stevenson (2000), Mo Williams (2003), CJ Miles (2005), Gordon Hayward (2010).
This is one of the areas that Kevin is very good at evaluating. Usually he picks up guys that are talented and multi-dimensional. So far the only “bust” he has drafted is Quincy Lewis (17th). Some people would argue that Stevenson was also a bust, but for a late first round pick (23) he has stuck in the NBA for a long time.
Kirilenko is obviously more of a defensive player, but when he was drafted I think that O’Connor was more excited about the dimension that he could add for the Jazz on offense as a second ball handler. In 2003-04 AK had an amazing season and almost brought the Jazz into the playoffs. Without all of the injuries that slowed his career he would have been one of the better players in the NBA. AK will always be an icon and a fan-favorite in Utah.
Miles and Stevenson were both upside picks that were intended to be groomed over the long-term. Both turned into solid players, and Miles is going to become a guy that can give you 15 points night in and night out. I used to be very critical of his game but last year in the playoffs I think he finally figured out his role.
Of all these players the only ones selected in the top 20 are Gordan Hayward and Quincy Lewis. Lewis never made it in the NBA, but I think that Hayward will.
Tough Guys
Curtis Bortchard (2002), Kris Humphries (2004), Kirk Snyder (2004), Robert Whaley (2005), Paul Millsap (2006), Ronnie Brewer (2006), Kyrylo Fesenko (2007), Wesley Mathews (2009).
Prior to 2006 O’Connor didn’t have much success drafting the bruising type of players that Jerry Sloan loves, but as soon as he drafted Paul Millsap his track record has been flawless when drafting (or in the case of Mathews, signing) these types of players. O’Connor’s draft record suggests that when drafting this type of player there is a 50/50 chance that they will become consistent role players for the Jazz.
Shooters
Eddie Lucas (1999), Scott Padgett (1999), Jarron Collins (2001), Sasha Pavlovic (2003), Morris Almond (2007), Tadija Dragicevic (2008), Ante Tomic (2008), Kosta Koufos (2008), Goran Suton (2009).
This is where most of O’Connor’s draft “duds” come from – he just isn’t good at picking guys that can become solid role players when their main asset is shooting. Right now the jury is still out on Dragicevic, Koufos, Suton and Tomic. Out of those four I think that there are only two with the chance to become good role players for the Jazz and those are Koufos and Tomic. Koufos was very good in his rookie year, but last year he was terrible – hopefully it was just a case of the “sophomore slump” – but to me it looked like he was going through puberty again and hit the stage where you loose your coordination. Tomic has been fantastic in the Euroleague and would be a borderline starter in the NBA (much like Nenad Krstic) but if he bulks up he could be a 15 and 8 type of guy…but he has to be willing to take a pay cut to play in a more competitive league.
Pavlovic is what I would call border line bust material. He wasn’t a bad player, but he only lasted 5 seasons as a contributing player. After his contract expires he will struggle to get another one in the NBA.
Point Guards
Raul Lopez (2001), Mo Williams (2003), Deron Williams (2005), Dee Brown (2006), Eric Maynor (2009).
O’Connor has a decent track record of selecting point guards in the draft. Williams has obviously been fantastic, and Mo Williams has turned into an all-star, sadly it was with another team. Maynor also has proven to at the very minimum be a capable backup and will likely become a capable starter as well. Lopez has often been considered the worst pick that O’Connor has ever made, but he was a very productive player before he got injured and ultimately may have been the reason that the Jazz opted for Deron Williams over Chris Paul in the 2005 draft (because of the difference in size between the two players).
O’Connor and the Draft
Kevin O’Connor has four kinds of players that he often seems to target in the draft. First is small forwards and shooting guards that can handle the ball – second is players that have a “nose for the ball”, next is players that spread the floor (especially centers in recent years after the success of Okur), and lastly is point guards (he really doesn’t seem to target just one type of point guard).
Ball Handlers
Quincy Lewis (1999), Andrei Kirilenko (1999), DeShawn Stevenson (2000), Mo Williams (2003), CJ Miles (2005), Gordon Hayward (2010).
This is one of the areas that Kevin is very good at evaluating. Usually he picks up guys that are talented and multi-dimensional. So far the only “bust” he has drafted is Quincy Lewis (17th). Some people would argue that Stevenson was also a bust, but for a late first round pick (23) he has stuck in the NBA for a long time.
Kirilenko is obviously more of a defensive player, but when he was drafted I think that O’Connor was more excited about the dimension that he could add for the Jazz on offense as a second ball handler. In 2003-04 AK had an amazing season and almost brought the Jazz into the playoffs. Without all of the injuries that slowed his career he would have been one of the better players in the NBA. AK will always be an icon and a fan-favorite in Utah.
Miles and Stevenson were both upside picks that were intended to be groomed over the long-term. Both turned into solid players, and Miles is going to become a guy that can give you 15 points night in and night out. I used to be very critical of his game but last year in the playoffs I think he finally figured out his role.
Of all these players the only ones selected in the top 20 are Gordan Hayward and Quincy Lewis. Lewis never made it in the NBA, but I think that Hayward will.
Tough Guys
Curtis Bortchard (2002), Kris Humphries (2004), Kirk Snyder (2004), Robert Whaley (2005), Paul Millsap (2006), Ronnie Brewer (2006), Kyrylo Fesenko (2007), Wesley Mathews (2009).
Prior to 2006 O’Connor didn’t have much success drafting the bruising type of players that Jerry Sloan loves, but as soon as he drafted Paul Millsap his track record has been flawless when drafting (or in the case of Mathews, signing) these types of players. O’Connor’s draft record suggests that when drafting this type of player there is a 50/50 chance that they will become consistent role players for the Jazz.
Shooters
Eddie Lucas (1999), Scott Padgett (1999), Jarron Collins (2001), Sasha Pavlovic (2003), Morris Almond (2007), Tadija Dragicevic (2008), Ante Tomic (2008), Kosta Koufos (2008), Goran Suton (2009).
This is where most of O’Connor’s draft “duds” come from – he just isn’t good at picking guys that can become solid role players when their main asset is shooting. Right now the jury is still out on Dragicevic, Koufos, Suton and Tomic. Out of those four I think that there are only two with the chance to become good role players for the Jazz and those are Koufos and Tomic. Koufos was very good in his rookie year, but last year he was terrible – hopefully it was just a case of the “sophomore slump” – but to me it looked like he was going through puberty again and hit the stage where you loose your coordination. Tomic has been fantastic in the Euroleague and would be a borderline starter in the NBA (much like Nenad Krstic) but if he bulks up he could be a 15 and 8 type of guy…but he has to be willing to take a pay cut to play in a more competitive league.
Pavlovic is what I would call border line bust material. He wasn’t a bad player, but he only lasted 5 seasons as a contributing player. After his contract expires he will struggle to get another one in the NBA.
Point Guards
Raul Lopez (2001), Mo Williams (2003), Deron Williams (2005), Dee Brown (2006), Eric Maynor (2009).
O’Connor has a decent track record of selecting point guards in the draft. Williams has obviously been fantastic, and Mo Williams has turned into an all-star, sadly it was with another team. Maynor also has proven to at the very minimum be a capable backup and will likely become a capable starter as well. Lopez has often been considered the worst pick that O’Connor has ever made, but he was a very productive player before he got injured and ultimately may have been the reason that the Jazz opted for Deron Williams over Chris Paul in the 2005 draft (because of the difference in size between the two players).
