RealGM

Summary --- "The Jazz can get one of the best interior defenders in the NBA without having to give up our biggest asset, AK. Alternatives such as horford, hibbert, etc are pipedreams, and older players like camby, pryz etc won't have the durability or youth to significantly improve this team over the long term."


Sorry for the length, I just had enough stats etc that I felt were relevant for this discussion.

My opinion isn't set in stone, I would love to hear well articulated and warranted arguments to the contrary, or alternatives I hadn't thought of. This is really just food for thought. I just would like to avoid the typical "you're (Please Use More Appropriate Word)" or "that dude sucks" replies.

The Horford Dream ---

Everyone is pretty much in agreement that the Jazz are missing an elite interior defender, the prob is this is also true of 75% of the league. Shot blockers are hard to find, and even harder considering the requirements the FO has in trading for players (no personality issues, offensive skills that fit the flex, very coachable, etc) generally limits out the type of athletic defender we really need.

While my preference at this point would be to somehow steal al horford from the Hawks, the lack of an extension for Crawford, in combination with their failure to use the MLE for this year, seem to signal their intent to preserve space to resign him. Those on the hawks board seem to think they would match a max offer, must less an offer of 100% of the Jazz's cap space (at this point, we have 50 mil committed, so I think we could only offer around 8 mil, thats without resigning Fesenko, CJ, etc etc).

Varejao ---

Thus, I think we should look at Varejao. While there are other big men on the market (hibbert is a RFA in 2012, so is lopez) it's just too difficult to pry away a franchise type big.

Varejao is certainly overpaid (he's due 31 mil over 4 years, and then a team option), but that means we could prob get him for a contract like Okurs, and maybe a pick to take him off their hands while they rebuild.

Moreover, he is one of the best low post defenders in the game. While many might disagree with Hollinger, others (Henry Abbot below) also support the notion that he one of the best interior defenders. He has the 4th highest rating in steals for bigs, the most charges in the league (the only other guaranteed turnover), and the 13th highest defensive multiplier, which is defined as....

Basketball Prospectus wrote:Two more defensive metrics follow. First is dMULT, or defensive multiplier. This measures how effectively a player has limited his counterparts' efficiency on a per-possession basis compared to their season rate. Thus, if Ron Artest has a dMULT of .950, that says Artest has held his counterparts to 95% of their normal production on a per possession basis. dQUAL (defensive counterpart quality) is a strength-of-opponent measure. It calculates the composite season points created per possession figures for all of a player's box score counterparts and compares it to the league average. A dQUAL total of 1.08 means that the player's counterparts have been eight percent better than league average.

Also, consider the Cavs defense was one of the very best those years, and I don't think it was just because of Lebron, and certainly not because of Big Z, Shaq, or Antawn.

On top of that, we would get a defensive big without giving up our biggest chip (AK) to get another all-star perhaps (we could very easily require not only defensive big, but also a third all-star to truly compete for a championship), or we could resign him for a more reasonable contract.

While Varejao isn't exactly a fan favorite on these boards, I think that there aren't many alternatives for finding a defensive big, we won't have any more lottery picks (barring a miracle or Isiah's triumphant return), and it's nearly impossible to find a great big through free agency who could be stolen away.

Sources ---

Henry Abbot on Varejao ---

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... ao-s-worth

Ranking of players by Dmult ----

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unf ... hp?s=camby

I've always liked Varejao. However, I don't see why the Cavaliers would trade Varejao for Memo. Memo is coming off a big time injury. He is older than Varejao... I believe. Either way, they definitely wouldn't be getting any younger. Personally I really like the idea of Okur being around to open up things for Al down low. But then again if Okur never returns to form than we are in trouble. I think i'd rather stick with Okur. Although a combination of Varejao/Tomic seems a lot more appealing than a combination of Tomic/Okur.

Would the cavs do it? ---

I think the cavs would trade varejao in a heartbeat. It's not that Okur makes them younger, they just need to shed salary, and would let Okur expire. The cavs nearly didn't sign him to that contract when he was a restricted free agent, and only relented because they wanted to appease Lebron.

The cavs have no future, and it just doesn't make sense for them to keep overpaid role players around to clog their cap space up for the next 4-5 years. We could flip okur in this next offseason when he would become an expiring, and I bet the cavs would instantly do that (or some other expiring / reasonable contract), injury or not.

Okur vs Varejao ---

I really think Okur is done. He has always had back problems, he's a terrible athlete which doesn't bode well for handling injuries / age, he's awful on defense, and he's 31. He averaged the lowest pts of his career as a starter (he only started 25 games his first season with the Jazz) and the 2nd lowest 3 pt %.

I certainly understand your argument that he opens up the floor, but I just wonder at what cost. I don't trust a frontcourt of him + any of our other interior defenders on defense, and generally think that the Jazz can nearly always find efficient ways to score with our system, but can't pull defense out of a hat when it counts. I don't think you don't necessarily need a three point shooter to spread the floor, a good mid range player like Millsap can still open up space for low post players to do their damage, and make defenses pay for doubles.

Having said that, It would be really interesting if someone posted some adjusted plus minus numbers for Okur / Varejao, I can see how Okur's shooting might be more valuable than Varejao's defense, I was just of the mindset that this team needs to prepare for a future without Okur inevitably, and so we might as well grab a valuable role player.

^^^ Damn good argument. You have swayed me. I'm in.

After I read the future power rankings, the first thing that struck me was how the hell are the bulls 4th? And after thinking about their cap situation, I'm pretty sure they might have a real hard time matching big offers to Noah (who seems just like a better version of Varejao). Noah was the 2nd choice for my 2011 offseason targets (behind Horford), but I used to think there was no way the Bulls let him go. But consider the following...

1. The Bulls have NEVER gone into the luxury tax. Their ownership is super, super cheap.
2. They have 34 mil committed in salary next year, which seems like a lot, until you realize that...
-They clearly exercise the player option on rose --- +9 mil
-They resign Taj gibson, amongst other role players --- + 2 mil
-Noah at a minimum prob gets resigned at 9 mil a year, although I'm pretty sure a lot of teams
would be willing to pay at least 11-ish mil to steal him.

So that's 51 mil --- still under the cap, but then they have to resign Rose to a max contract the next year. So if they resigned their core to keep Noah (9 mil, conservative estimate) and Rose (max starting at 14 or 15 mil) together with committed contracts to Deng and Boozer (along with exercising options on Taj, and prob some other rookies) they are looking at a 2011 bill of around 58 mil, bare minimum. They also are incredibly thin, so prob need some depth at the wing / back-up center.

Most teams would match, but the Bulls have been ruthless in running the franchise like a business. I could see them not matching a big offer, or agreeing to a sign and trade of Noah for cheap young talent. Thus, I think we should wait until the offseason, try and shed some salary, make a run at Noah / Horford, and if that craps out, Varejao could be plan C.

You're (Please Use More Appropriate Word)...oh and both those guys suck

Seriously, I am a fan of anything that gets rid of okur for a defensive center. I wish this would happen.

GP wrote:You're (Please Use More Appropriate Word)...oh and both those guys suck

Seriously, I am a fan of anything that gets rid of okur for a defensive center. I wish this would happen.

Agreed... I hate seeing Okur not paying attention to where the ball is in transition and during plays, he's basically asleep until he gets the ball then he remembers "oh yeah basketball". I loved Okur for a long time but its time to go.

Cleveland would want young players to help in their rebuilding efforts for Varejao (who is a fan favorite there) not an ageing center.