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Haberstroh wrote:(4) Al Jefferson, C, Utah Jazz
If you go by points and rebounds per game, you might think Jefferson is having a fine year in Utah -- after all, 16- point, 9-rebound guys don't grow on trees -- but a closer look reveals a player who's woefully out of place and has taken a step back when he should be entering his prime.

For a player who primarily operates on the block, it's concerning how rarely he earns a trip to the charity stripe. This isn't anything new with Jefferson -- he's always had underwhelming foul-drawing rates -- but he's trending downward from 4.9 free throws every 36 minutes in 2008-09 to 3.9 last season and finally Channing Frye-like 3.6 attempts this season. That's not the only statistic in free fall. Take a peek at his yearly rebounding rates since his last season in Boston in 2006-07: 19.5 percent, 18.1 percent, 17.5 percent, 16.0 and 15.8 percent this season.

Then, you look at the awful plus-minus numbers. The Jazz lose by 2.1 points every 100 possessions when Jefferson is on the floor, which is bad in and of itself, but that's before you consider that the Jazz beat their opponents by 6.5 points every 100 possessions when he rides the pine. An 8.6-point swing in the wrong direction is not the kind of impact the Jazz want to see out of a big man who's set to receive $29 million through 2013.

The Jazz can't be encouraged by Jefferson's statistical red flags, but it's plain to see that his post-up gifts aren't compatible with the motion offense, either."

Scary seeing his numbers decline across his career like that.

Although the plus-minus could just be due to the lack of shooters we have to surround a post-up threat like Al. He can improve somewhat due to more familiarity in our system, but is that gonna be enough to transform his game or will it still take away from the rest of the team? Is this the guy we really want to bet on in the future? Or should he be trade bait?

I appreciate the work you put in on this, but gimmick stats drive me nuts. You know how I can tell Jefferson is out of place and not thriving? I watch basketball. Thats all I need.

Jefferson is part of our offensive woes, but the total. Our system requires the 2 &3 to be able to shoot the outside shot and stretch the floor. Our undersized 4 & 5 both need to be around the same area on the court allowing their defenders to guard two for one. Then throw in the drop downs by the defenders unconcerned with consistent outside shooting. As poorly as we start games it is a wonder that our record is as good as it is.

I read this fan site and several other basketball sites. For the first few years after I retired, I deliberately stayed away from basketball, but this year I'm more interested. I've never posted on this site before.

I just read the post regarding gimmick stats and how they don't matter. "I just watch basketball." was the quote, I believe.

I'm sure the poster believes that they are truly seeing what's going on, but they aren't. That's just fan wishful thinking. Every fan thinks they know more about the game than the refs, coaches or the players. Some fans just like to shout their opinions to everyone who will listen despite their lack of knowledge.

I've seen thousands of basketball games between coaching, recruiting and scouting. To really understand what's going on, I have to break down film and watch it several times. Good stat analysis helps me and the other coaches put what we see into perspective. In depth stat analysis is slowly changing basketball, the same way it has changed baseball and is now becoming common in football.

Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Fans should always try to have a good time, talk smack and love it. But smack ain't the truth.

We don't need stats to show Jefferson is playing bad now. But without those stats, I wouldn't have seen a declining trend year-on-year for his rebounding rate, for example. He's still a solid player, but is he worth it was what I meant to focus on.

retiredcoach wrote:I read this fan site and several other basketball sites. For the first few years after I retired, I deliberately stayed away from basketball, but this year I'm more interested. I've never posted on this site before.

I just read the post regarding gimmick stats and how they don't matter. "I just watch basketball." was the quote, I believe.

I'm sure the poster believes that they are truly seeing what's going on, but they aren't. That's just fan wishful thinking. Every fan thinks they know more about the game than the refs, coaches or the players. Some fans just like to shout their opinions to everyone who will listen despite their lack of knowledge.

I've seen thousands of basketball games between coaching, recruiting and scouting. To really understand what's going on, I have to break down film and watch it several times. Good stat analysis helps me and the other coaches put what we see into perspective. In depth stat analysis is slowly changing basketball, the same way it has changed baseball and is now becoming common in football.

Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Fans should always try to have a good time, talk smack and love it. But smack ain't the truth.

That's nice and all, but KE's point remains. Jefferson's playing very poorly (much worse than in previous years), and that's easily evident from watching the games. KE never indicated that he thought he could out-coach a coach. He was saying that, as a basketball fan, the statistical support for Jefferson's poor play was unnecessary because it's so evident when you watch a game.

Don't quite see what's wrong with that. But then again, I just read sentences; I don't examine their structures for patterns that give me insight into the writer's psychology. Can we get a debate coach in here to do that for me?

The59Sound wrote:

retiredcoach wrote:I read this fan site and several other basketball sites. For the first few years after I retired, I deliberately stayed away from basketball, but this year I'm more interested. I've never posted on this site before.

I just read the post regarding gimmick stats and how they don't matter. "I just watch basketball." was the quote, I believe.

I'm sure the poster believes that they are truly seeing what's going on, but they aren't. That's just fan wishful thinking. Every fan thinks they know more about the game than the refs, coaches or the players. Some fans just like to shout their opinions to everyone who will listen despite their lack of knowledge.

I've seen thousands of basketball games between coaching, recruiting and scouting. To really understand what's going on, I have to break down film and watch it several times. Good stat analysis helps me and the other coaches put what we see into perspective. In depth stat analysis is slowly changing basketball, the same way it has changed baseball and is now becoming common in football.

Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Fans should always try to have a good time, talk smack and love it. But smack ain't the truth.

That's nice and all, but KE's point remains. Jefferson's playing very poorly (much worse than in previous years), and that's easily evident from watching the games. KE never indicated that he thought he could out-coach a coach. He was saying that, as a basketball fan, the statistical support for Jefferson's poor play was unnecessary because it's so evident when you watch a game.

Don't quite see what's wrong with that. But then again, I just read sentences; I don't examine their structures for patterns that give me insight into the writer's psychology. Can we get a debate coach in here to do that for me?

Both of my parents were the best debate coaches in Utah for years, in the respective fields. I presented them both with this thread and they both had interesting points. My mother said that I was an accident and that she should've gone through with the abortion, and my father said "ditto".

retiredcoach wrote:I read this fan site and several other basketball sites. For the first few years after I retired, I deliberately stayed away from basketball, but this year I'm more interested. I've never posted on this site before.

I just read the post regarding gimmick stats and how they don't matter. "I just watch basketball." was the quote, I believe.

I'm sure the poster believes that they are truly seeing what's going on, but they aren't. That's just fan wishful thinking. Every fan thinks they know more about the game than the refs, coaches or the players. Some fans just like to shout their opinions to everyone who will listen despite their lack of knowledge.

I've seen thousands of basketball games between coaching, recruiting and scouting. To really understand what's going on, I have to break down film and watch it several times. Good stat analysis helps me and the other coaches put what we see into perspective. In depth stat analysis is slowly changing basketball, the same way it has changed baseball and is now becoming common in football.

Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Fans should always try to have a good time, talk smack and love it. But smack ain't the truth.

Welcome to the board. Stat analysis is great. I agree with King Everything that we didnt need stats to show us that Jefferson is struggling.

This Jazz team is poorly constructed and poorly led. Simple as that.

QuantumMacgyver wrote:

The59Sound wrote:

retiredcoach wrote:I read this fan site and several other basketball sites. For the first few years after I retired, I deliberately stayed away from basketball, but this year I'm more interested. I've never posted on this site before.

I just read the post regarding gimmick stats and how they don't matter. "I just watch basketball." was the quote, I believe.

I'm sure the poster believes that they are truly seeing what's going on, but they aren't. That's just fan wishful thinking. Every fan thinks they know more about the game than the refs, coaches or the players. Some fans just like to shout their opinions to everyone who will listen despite their lack of knowledge.

I've seen thousands of basketball games between coaching, recruiting and scouting. To really understand what's going on, I have to break down film and watch it several times. Good stat analysis helps me and the other coaches put what we see into perspective. In depth stat analysis is slowly changing basketball, the same way it has changed baseball and is now becoming common in football.

Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Fans should always try to have a good time, talk smack and love it. But smack ain't the truth.

That's nice and all, but KE's point remains. Jefferson's playing very poorly (much worse than in previous years), and that's easily evident from watching the games. KE never indicated that he thought he could out-coach a coach. He was saying that, as a basketball fan, the statistical support for Jefferson's poor play was unnecessary because it's so evident when you watch a game.

Don't quite see what's wrong with that. But then again, I just read sentences; I don't examine their structures for patterns that give me insight into the writer's psychology. Can we get a debate coach in here to do that for me?

Both of my parents were the best debate coaches in Utah for years, in the respective fields. I presented them both with this thread and they both had interesting points. My mother said that I was an accident and that she should've gone through with the abortion, and my father said "ditto".

I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. You are all **** douches. Also, I may have herpes.

^^ thats what you get for staying at a Holiday Inn Exress....

Underachieving? Sure, you could argue that.

Room for improvement after this season is over? Yes, plenty.

I don't know what everyone expected from him this season but I'm going to remain patient with him and see how he does next season after he has put a full year with the team/system under his belt.

UTJazzFan_Echo1 wrote:Underachieving? Sure, you could argue that.

Room for improvement after this season is over? Yes, plenty.

I don't know what everyone expected from him this season but I'm going to remain patient with him and see how he does next season after he has put a full year with the team/system under his belt.

Cure Cancer, fix the economy, three Championships (this season, more later), and to bang KE's mom.

Is that really to much to ask?

Describing the statistical analysis as "gimmick stats" isn't a comment on how Jefferson is playing but on stats in general. I responded to that.

I agree Jefferson needs to improve on a some issues, especially defense. On defense he has slow feet and is slow to react to dribblers coming off screens. It's impossible for the primary defender to push through every screen to stop penetration into the paint.. Jefferson needs to help on defense by slowing down the cutter and allowing the principle defender to catch up. The 2nd problem I see, and I haven't spent a lot of time studying it, is Jefferson's slow feet cause him to use too much time to get into position on the low post. He's okay when the ball goes into the post, and he's waiting on it, but if he catches above the block, he's going to take a lot of time to get to his spots. Another issue is he doesn't seem to see the open man when the defense converges on him, or if he does, he has problems getting the ball to them. Part of that could be his experiences in Minnesota where he was primary scoring option, so he didn't have to move the ball out of the post. The Jazz depend on ball movement to make the flex offense work.

If Milsap were quicker on help defense, he could take part of the pick and roll defense off Jefferson, but he's not too fast on the help side either. That creates a difficult problem to correct.

On offense Jefferson is a true low post player. He's at his absolute best off the block and in the paint. When he gets on his spots, he's good, really good. The Jazz offense is not designed for a post player like Jefferson.

This summer I expect Sloan and his staff will work out more low post plays for Jefferson. That will speed up the offense once again, and it will make Deron more effective, raising his assist averages a bit. Jefferson will learn the offense better and be able to move the ball quicker. He hasn't had much practice time with the Jazz and was totally unprepared for their system having played only in Minnesota and Boston.

I don't think Jefferson's defense is going to improve much. There are several reasons for that. I don't think he's naturally quick with his feet. I don't think he's mentally fast on picking up his options and moving into and out of position in rapid fashion. He was drafted right out of high school. Defense in high school for a guy Jefferson's size is easy. Learning to play defense in the pro's is a lot harder than it is in college. In college there is more practice time, the coaches are better teachers, they have more control over the players (most of the time) and there are fewer games so there's more teaching time and less pressure. Jefferson is only 26. He's got a lot of years left to play.

A lot of fans would obviously say Jefferson doesn't play good enough defense. Okay. But what specifically is off in his defense? Is he consistently off? Does it change under some circumstances? How quick can he learn? Are his issues psychological or physical or lack of understanding? There's a hundred things that have to be looked at. It's complicated. There's a big difference between being generally right and specifically right.

Right now almost none of his problems on defense are likely to get corrected. It's the wrong time in the pro season to make much progress on this. More post plays can be put in after the break, but that's up to the staff and no one knows what they are thinking right now.

In his case, I would use statistical analysis to determine which teams gave him the most defensive problems, what kind of problems and whether the problems were consistent. Then I would review the films, break down the tapes, and compile them into a defensive lesson plan. I would then go over everything with Jefferson and work out a plan to improve his defense. From there the rest would be up to him and how hard he is willing to work.

Based on what I've seen so far and how he has reacted, I would say he'll be between 30% and 50% better on defense next year. He'll be 20% more effective in the post and a 40% better passer. How many wins will that add to the total, 3 to 7. I don't see a trade involving Jefferson. He's really a valuable player. Small changes in the system will make him more efficient and improve his productivity with the ball in his hands.

retiredcoach wrote:Describing the statistical analysis as "gimmick stats" isn't a comment on how Jefferson is playing but on stats in general. I responded to that.

Yeah, but the original post mentioned +/-. Nobody wrote off all of statistical analysis as a gimmick. There are, however, statistics that on their own are generally pretty misleading. That's what could be considered a gimmick stat. Like +/-.

I'm far more interested in Millsap's regression this year than Jefferson's. Is it unreasonable to say that those two just don't play well together?

I miss the Millsap of old, and I'd prefer Jefferson get traded for a defensive-minded big. Don't know quite how realistic that is, but if we could have a defensive-minded big and a consistent shooter instead of Jefferson, we'd be solid.

We will never be a true contender with an undersized PF unless we have Dwight Howard beside him. I have always liked the effort Milsap brings to the game but he is not a real answer full time at that position.

Neon Black wrote:

retiredcoach wrote:Describing the statistical analysis as "gimmick stats" isn't a comment on how Jefferson is playing but on stats in general. I responded to that.

Yeah, but the original post mentioned +/-. Nobody wrote off all of statistical analysis as a gimmick. There are, however, statistics that on their own are generally pretty misleading. That's what could be considered a gimmick stat. Like +/-.

Raw +/- is no more misleading than anything else in a typical boxscore.

king everything wrote:I appreciate the work you put in on this, but gimmick stats drive me nuts. You know how I can tell Jefferson is out of place and not thriving? I watch basketball. Thats all I need.

lol, agreed. Jefferson was traded out of Minny because he was a bad fit with Love and now its a concern that he isn't fitting in with the jazz.

retiredcoach wrote: Stat analysis is not going away. It's becoming increasingly more important. Fans only see a small fraction of what is going on during the game no matter how many games they've been to, and practically none of what happens outside of the games. I guess all the coaches who are integrating stat analysis into their decision making are full of it. They should just watch the games.

Stat analysis has taken off in recent years in all sports, because coaches/ front offices are afraid to be the guy who DOESN'T use it. They fear being seen as behind the times in an industry where if you're what you say you are, you know full well how precariously you hang on to your job everyday. No one wants a strike against them.

The simple fact, without teaching a class and writing a thesis, remains- basketball is basketball. Its a simpler sport than the John Hollingers of the world wish to make it. Its a beautiful game, and if you can play it, you can play it, and if you can't, you can't. No gimmick stat will help you see a play two passes before it happens. No gimmick stat is going to physically put the ball through the hoop or stop your opponent from doing it.

Let's resist the temptation to turn a child's game into doctorate level arithmatic, shall we?

I don't think Jefferson is going to improve by himself. The biggest issue is that he is playing out of position and that we don't have any good shooters that can open up the floor. When Okur comes back fully to old form (big if) it will completely change the front line for the Jazz, and Jefferson will be the primary beneficiary.

The main issues with the Jazz this year is that Okur is hurt and that Bell has shown to be totally unable to make up for the loss of KK and Wes. Add the loss of Brewer and you have today's Jazz where the offense just doesn't have the talent to hit shots from the outside to spread the floor, the athletisim to beat opponents to the basket, or to make difficult shots.

You can't do anything about Okur other than hoping he comes back. But in hindsight the FO made a huge error in not keeping Wes and perhaps letting KK go. Regardless of Okur's health, the FO must fix the SG problem.