Jazz Defense What Happened
Posted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 9:02 pm
Fans constantly hear that defense wins championships. In the book Scorecasters, the authors argue that great defensive teams don't win any more often than great offensive teams. As an example they show that during the last 60 years or so in the NBA playoffs, teams that were in the top 5 for defense won 54.8% of the time and teams in the top 5 offensively won 54.4% of the time. In the finals, the outcomes are similar.
The thing is in the NBA small differences on defense can make a huge difference in wins. For the Jazz the problem has been defensive rebounds. Defensive rebounding is based on positioning, strength and team effort. Basically a defensive rebound is worth an average of 1.5 to 2 pts in a game. The more shots a game a team takes, the more points they are going to score regardless of their shooting percentage. Defensive rebounds keep them from taking more shots.
In the NBA, the team on defense gets around 74% of all possible rebounds. The Jazz in years past normally did better than the average and got around 76% of the defensive rebounds. This year they are only getting 72%. Teams take 60 to 100 shots a game. A 4% difference in defensive rebounds means an opponent gets between 3 and 4 more free shots a game plus they run down the clock keeping the other team from taking more shots. If the opponent makes half the shots off their offensive rebounds then those missed defensive rebounds add up to 3 to 6 points a game depending on the mix of 3's vs 2's. Well, that's not all that many points.
Around 3.6% of NBA games are won by 1 point. About 6.5% of them are won by 2 points. About 5.8% of them by 3 and around 4.3% won by 4. Something around 50% of NBA games are won with a margin of 9 points or less.
The Jazz are only 4 or 5 defensive rebounds a game away from having a much better win/loss ratio.
The thing is in the NBA small differences on defense can make a huge difference in wins. For the Jazz the problem has been defensive rebounds. Defensive rebounding is based on positioning, strength and team effort. Basically a defensive rebound is worth an average of 1.5 to 2 pts in a game. The more shots a game a team takes, the more points they are going to score regardless of their shooting percentage. Defensive rebounds keep them from taking more shots.
In the NBA, the team on defense gets around 74% of all possible rebounds. The Jazz in years past normally did better than the average and got around 76% of the defensive rebounds. This year they are only getting 72%. Teams take 60 to 100 shots a game. A 4% difference in defensive rebounds means an opponent gets between 3 and 4 more free shots a game plus they run down the clock keeping the other team from taking more shots. If the opponent makes half the shots off their offensive rebounds then those missed defensive rebounds add up to 3 to 6 points a game depending on the mix of 3's vs 2's. Well, that's not all that many points.
Around 3.6% of NBA games are won by 1 point. About 6.5% of them are won by 2 points. About 5.8% of them by 3 and around 4.3% won by 4. Something around 50% of NBA games are won with a margin of 9 points or less.
The Jazz are only 4 or 5 defensive rebounds a game away from having a much better win/loss ratio.