RealGM

Year Team Previous season record Lottery chances Probability
1985 New York Knicks 24–58 (3rd-worst) — 14.29%[B]
1986 Philadelphia 76ers[A] 32–50 (7th-worst)[A] — 14.29%[B]
1987 San Antonio Spurs 28–54 (4th-worst) — 14.29%[B]
1988 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (Worst) — 14.29%[B]
1989 Sacramento Kings 27–55 (6th-worst) — 11.11%[C]
1990 New Jersey Nets 17–65 (Worst) 11 (out of 66) 16.67%
1991 Charlotte Hornets 26–56 (5th-worst) 7 (out of 66) 10.61%
1992 Orlando Magic 21–61 (2nd-worst) 10 (out of 66) 15.15%
1993 Orlando Magic 41–41 (11th-worst) 1 (out of 66) 1.52%
1994 Milwaukee Bucks 20–62 (2nd-worst) 163 (out of 1000) 16.30%
1995 Golden State Warriors 26–56 (5th-worst) 94 (out of 1000) 9.40%
1996 Philadelphia 76ers 18–64 (2nd-worst) 200 (out of 593)[D] 33.73%
1997 San Antonio Spurs 20–62 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 727)[D] 21.60%
1998 Los Angeles Clippers 17–65 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 696)[D] 22.56%
1999 Chicago Bulls 13–37[E] (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 1000) 15.70%
2000 New Jersey Nets 31–52 (7th-worst) 44 (out of 1000) 4.40%
2001 Washington Wizards 19–63 (3rd-worst) 157 (out of 1000) 15.70%
2002 Houston Rockets 28–54 (5th-worst) 89 (out of 1000) 8.90%
2003 Cleveland Cavaliers 17–65 (Worst) 225 (out of 1000) 22.50%
2004 Orlando Magic 21–61 (Worst) 250 (out of 1000) 25.00%
2005 Milwaukee Bucks 30–52 (6th-worst) 63 (out of 1000) 6.30%
2006 Toronto Raptors 27–55 (5th-worst) 88 (out of 1000) 8.80%
2007 Portland Trail Blazers 32–50 (6th-worst) 53 (out of 1000) 5.30%
2008 Chicago Bulls 33–49 (9th-worst) 17 (out of 1000) 1.70%
2009 Los Angeles Clippers 19–63 (2nd-worst)[F] 177 (out of 1000) 17.70%
2010 Washington Wizards 26–56 (5th-worst) 103 (out of 1000) 10.30%


So, in 26 years, the 6th worst record has won the lottery 3 times.

Even more interesting to me is that the worst record in the league (which obviously has the best chance) has only won it 4 times.

Cross your fingers!!!!

I want to believe, but probability has no memory. Jazz have a 21.5% chance of getting top three with the Nets' pick, and a 2.5% chance of getting top three with our pick.

Chance has no memory.

24% isn't bad at all. I'll take a 1 in 4 chance to get into the top 3 to get a potential franchise changing player.

But I'll be happy as long as we don't move down. Knock on wood.

25% chance is just about enough for me to watch the draft, but not enough to get me optimistic.